Newell's - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

We may have been used to seeing U de Chile shinning on the field, but those times are unfortunately long gone. What we have today is a totally different team than what we had last year, as a lot of their key players have left (almost half of the team), and the magic-maker coach Sampaoli has also left the team. So, right now we have just a shadow of that team, without any clear objective. And we can see the effects that those changes have made: they are just 7th in the league after 6 rounds (not a big deal, as they are just 3 points behind the leaders), and have recorded some rather average results in Libertadores. They won against Lara in the opening match, 2-0, which was a normal result, nothing extraordinary, but in their second game their other face was shown, as they were just pushed aside by a very troubled Olimpia. The result aside, U de Chile really put in a tragic performance, showing lack of ideas, inability to score and some defensive gaps. Keep in mind Olimpia was/is in quite a deep crisis, losing at home to newly-promoted General Diaz, and snatching a draw after being outplayed by Rubio Nu. Newells, like 75% of the Argentinian teams, are a solid side, especially when it comes to playing at home. They've soundly beaten Olimpia by 3-1, and what's really bothering me is their loss at Lara, 1-2, which was most likely an accident. However, that fares well for this bet, as they should be pumped-up for this match, looking to get their campaign back on track. U de Chile might have posed some problems last year, but now, I barely give them any chances to come away with something from Rosario. The line is very good, and it's definitely bound to drop. GL!

Newell's (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Estudiantes la Plata - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Argentina finally restarts it's league, so let's see what the front runners have reserved for this Clausura. Estudiantes of course wants the title, and they have a solid base on which to build, following their Apertura triumph. They were exceptional at home last year, winning all their 9 games, and only conceding a single goal. But things could be a bit different this season, as they have a new coach, Eduardo Berizzo, who will make his debut, and Estudiantes could be too big for him so early in his career. He said to favor an offensive style, similar to Marcelo Bielsa's style (from whom he learned a lot), so this could mean that Estudiantes won't be that defensive rock which we're used to. Newell's is also reported to be using an offensive formation for this duel, and their new signing, Claudio Bieler, is planned to feature in attack, hoping to regain his LDU Quito-form. Attacking Estudiantes might prove worth to try, as you rarely get anything from them if you focus solely on defense. The hosts certainly have the power to win, and void this bet on themselves (2-0 is very probably), but I'm also counting on Newell's to respond. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

LDU Quito - Newell's Old Boys

Copa Sudamericana

I've waited for the -1 lines for these two matches, as I strongly believe both Sudamericana matches from Wednesday will be clear and easy home wins. Let's take a look at the match-up from Ecuador first. LDU has an awesome record when playing at home in continental competitions, and haven't lost a game played in Casablanca in ages. The high altitude provides them with a huge advantage, but they are also a great team, and it's purely their merit for making legendary results in Quito (just a reminder that in the last 3-4 years they have won Copa Libertadores, Copa Sudamericana and 2 consecutive Recopas). And the team news are also going well. Following their game against Deportivo Cuenca from Saturday, where they used all their regulars as it was a crucial match for the title, there were 5 doubtful players for this match. But their recovery is going well, and it looks like the only that is likely to miss the game will be midfielder Patricio Urrutia, while top scorer Barcos is 90% certain of starting against the Argentinians. Otherwise, no other absences, and they will once again use their best team. Newell's isn't a bad team at all. Actually they are one of the best organized Argentinian teams, and I feel they would have deserved more from that first leg, instead of the 0-0. Their players should be fit for this game, as against Godoy Cruz in the league they fielded a second team, but altitude should be their biggest opponent today. Argentinian and Brazilian teams suffer the most when playing at altitude, as they never do it in their leagues (unlike Peruvians, Colombians, etc), and if we look at Newell's record at high altitude in the last 5 years, they are 0-0-3 (0-2 against San Jose this year - although they played with reserves, 1-2 at Emelec this year in Libertadores, and 2-3 at The Strongest in the 2006 Libertadores). Don't know how easy will the match be for LDU, but Newell's should rely only on defense, as they need an away goal, and LDU love the teams that attack them in Quito. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Godoy Cruz - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Newell's played a pretty good match this mid-week at home, against LDU Quito in Copa Sudamericana, but luck wasn't on their side, and they eventually had to settle for a 0-0 draw. But this result serves them as much as a defeat, as it is well known LDU's home strength, at the high altitude of Quito. So, coach Sensini has decided to give a rest to most of his players, in order for them to be fit for the grueling duel in Ecuador. Schiavi is suspended for this match anyway, while 8 other players will be rested (Alayes, Mateo, Bernardi, Borghello, Fideleff, Estigarribia, Formica and Sperdutti), leaving them to play with a team of reserves and fringe players. Godoy are still having a chance to catch the leaders Estudiantes, and will probably relish the opportunity to easily beat a usually solid team like Newell's. They won't have any absences, and they are very likely to field their base team, their strongest line-up. A victory for Godoy will also cement their qualification to Copa Libertadores (which looks good anyway, since they are 2nd in the Average points table). Odds are still take-able, and this looks like a solid bet. GL!

Godoy Cruz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Newell's Old Boys - Quilmes

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I was really impressed with Newell's in Sudamericana, following their 6-0 win, as they really did a great match, and have shown that their recent form is not random. They have a good team, and their game plan is working like a charm. Of course, they were also helped a lot by the awful Bolivians, but let's not minimize their merits. Today they'll have a much more difficult game against Quilmes, as even the poorest team from Argentina shouldn't be as bad as San Jose were. But Newell's form and morale following their 11 games without a win, and their record-breaking Sudamericana win, makes them strong favorites for this game, and I'm sure they'll want to continue their run. Most of the players that trashed the Bolivians will also play today. The only important missings will be defender Alayes - who will be rested, and winger Estigarribia - injured. But overall they will still have a very solid team, with players like Schiavi, Sperduti, Formica and Borghello playing their part. To assume Quilmes can snatch some points here is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Last place in the table, and without a win so far must have really broken their spirit, and the worst part is that they don't seem capable to snap out of it. They might have snatched some draws against teams with big names, but overall, they are performing poorly, so points won with River, Independiente and Argentinos can't really be points of reference. Newell's is a class better than them, and anything else other than a clear win here (2-0, 3-0) would be a big surprise. GL!

Newell's (-1 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Newell's Old Boys - San Jose

Copa Sudamericana

At first, I was thinking about a +2 handicap on the Bolivians, but after some more thought, I found the under much better. That's because I'm certainly not expecting San Jose to score, and the way I see it, that would be the only way this match could go over, as Newell's certainly isn't a team to score more than 3 goals, even against an obviously weaker opponent. Both teams will go in this match will all they have, and the only expected change in a line-up will be for Newell's, where defender Fideleff will replace Venezuelan Cichero, who is on international duty. Also, both teams played with their best squad during the weekend, but the Argentinians should be more fresh, as they played on Friday, while the Bolivians played only 3 days ago, so without some fresh legs, and in front of a superior opponent, I'm expecting very defensive tactics from San Jose, with some hopes for counter attacks, as if the game finishes with a tight score, the qualification will be settled in Bolivia. But Newell's isn't a team that concedes easy goals, and neither do they go in an attacking frenzy, so the score shouldn't get crazy. Worst case scenario that I can see for this bet is a 3-0, in which case it will be void, but I think a 2-0 looks more realistic. GL!

under 3 goals @ 1.87, 3/10

Result: 6-0, LOST