FIFA Club World Cup 2013, Semi-final
Atletico MG (-1.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
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Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Dec 18, 2013
Nov 7, 2013
Atletico Nacional - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Nov 2, 2013
Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
Aug 1, 2013
Deportivo Pasto - FBC Melgar
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
El Tanque Sisley - Colo Colo
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Jul 31, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Emelec
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Nacional Asuncion - The Strongest
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Jul 30, 2013
Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Jul 18, 2013
Olimpia - Atletico MG
Copa Libertadores 2013, Final
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Jun 17, 2013
Spain - Uruguay
FIFA Confederations Cup 2013, Group Stage
There's
not much to say here... Everybody knows Spain, the reigning champions
of the World Cup and the European Championship, and are the main
favorites for this Confederations Cup. They do have an offensive squad,
but they also deploy the tiki-taka style of play, with which they
basically try to pass the ball until they find the right spot to take
the action forward. But that usually means a delay in the game, and they
rarely lose possesion. However, Uruguay looks like a team capable of
hurting them when they have the ball. Forlan is absent, it's true, but
they have Suarez up-front, and he will be backed by Cavani, Gaston
Ramirez and Cristian Rodriguez. So they should have a lot of options and
a lot of speed when taking their actions vertically. Put them against
Xavi, Iniesta, Villa and Torres, and we should have an
entertaining match, between two teams that have world class players,
who relish any offensive plays. Also, surprises are quite often in this
competition, so the best bet would be to go for the goals, especially
under these circumstances. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Result: 2-1, WON
May 16, 2013
Corinthians - Boca Juniors
Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16
After losing two weeks ago on the same match, I will try once again with Corinthians. Even though they lost 0-1 in Argentina, and made a rather poor match, I would still consider them the favorites to qualify to the next round. They managed to put some pressure on their opponents after conceding the goal, and I assume that was a preview for what's to come tonight in the return game. I won't go into too many details, as I've said pretty much everything in the preview for the first leg. Corinthians are the reigning champions, one of the best teams in South America with some top class players (I'll mention again just Pato, Guerrero and Emerson), and they should be more than capable of overturning this result. Boca made a very good match two weeks ago, but I still rate them as just a shadow of their former selves (second from bottom in their local league, just 3 points above last placed Argentinos). They drew at home in the Super Clasico with River, than were trashed 0-3 by San Lorenzo, so no real sign of improvement. And if their local form is anything to go by, they have an appalling away record, without a single win in 7 games, scoring just 3 and conceding 14. And this is against mostly average Argentinian teams. They will be put under a lot of pressure in Brazil, and I'm expecting Corinthians to be constantly attacking them. So it's just a matter of 'when' they will concede the first goal. The line may look rather high, but this is the reality, and as I've said before, I still have Corinthians as favorites to qualify. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
After losing two weeks ago on the same match, I will try once again with Corinthians. Even though they lost 0-1 in Argentina, and made a rather poor match, I would still consider them the favorites to qualify to the next round. They managed to put some pressure on their opponents after conceding the goal, and I assume that was a preview for what's to come tonight in the return game. I won't go into too many details, as I've said pretty much everything in the preview for the first leg. Corinthians are the reigning champions, one of the best teams in South America with some top class players (I'll mention again just Pato, Guerrero and Emerson), and they should be more than capable of overturning this result. Boca made a very good match two weeks ago, but I still rate them as just a shadow of their former selves (second from bottom in their local league, just 3 points above last placed Argentinos). They drew at home in the Super Clasico with River, than were trashed 0-3 by San Lorenzo, so no real sign of improvement. And if their local form is anything to go by, they have an appalling away record, without a single win in 7 games, scoring just 3 and conceding 14. And this is against mostly average Argentinian teams. They will be put under a lot of pressure in Brazil, and I'm expecting Corinthians to be constantly attacking them. So it's just a matter of 'when' they will concede the first goal. The line may look rather high, but this is the reality, and as I've said before, I still have Corinthians as favorites to qualify. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
May 9, 2013
Atletico MG - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16
This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON
This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON
May 2, 2013
Boca Juniors - Corinthians
Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16
This comes a day early, but the odds have already started to drop, and I'm pretty sure that they will continue on the same downward trend up until kick-off time. A very tough task lies ahead of Boca Juniors, who are expected to snap out of their dreadful run, and win against one of the best teams on the continent. They are currently on a run of 5 consecutive games without a win, and are generally just showing some appalling performances. They struggled in a group with Nacional, Toluca and Barcelona, managing to lose half of their games, where normally they shouldn't have had any problems. In the local league, things aren't any better... they're actually worse, as after 11 rounds, they have won just one single game, have 9 points and are sitting on 18th place. Meanwhile, Corinthians are probably the best team in this competition, and the reigning champions. They have a very good and solid team, and also several high-profile players, that give them the edge against pretty much any opposition. Just as a reminder, they've won the Club World Cup in December 2012, after outplaying and beating Chelsea by 1-0. In their ranks, they have Alexandre Pato from Milan, Paolo Guerrero, Emerson, and several other skilled players that are, or have been, taken into consideration for the national team. Last year, these two teams played the final of Libertadores, with Corinthians drawing in Argentina, but things have changed since then. Boca is in deep trouble, and are showing little when it comes to football, while Corinthians are more solid than ever. It's never easy for a Brazilian team to play in Argentina, especially in La Bombonera, but I just can't see Timao losing this game. GL!
Corinthians DNB @ 1.96, 5/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
This comes a day early, but the odds have already started to drop, and I'm pretty sure that they will continue on the same downward trend up until kick-off time. A very tough task lies ahead of Boca Juniors, who are expected to snap out of their dreadful run, and win against one of the best teams on the continent. They are currently on a run of 5 consecutive games without a win, and are generally just showing some appalling performances. They struggled in a group with Nacional, Toluca and Barcelona, managing to lose half of their games, where normally they shouldn't have had any problems. In the local league, things aren't any better... they're actually worse, as after 11 rounds, they have won just one single game, have 9 points and are sitting on 18th place. Meanwhile, Corinthians are probably the best team in this competition, and the reigning champions. They have a very good and solid team, and also several high-profile players, that give them the edge against pretty much any opposition. Just as a reminder, they've won the Club World Cup in December 2012, after outplaying and beating Chelsea by 1-0. In their ranks, they have Alexandre Pato from Milan, Paolo Guerrero, Emerson, and several other skilled players that are, or have been, taken into consideration for the national team. Last year, these two teams played the final of Libertadores, with Corinthians drawing in Argentina, but things have changed since then. Boca is in deep trouble, and are showing little when it comes to football, while Corinthians are more solid than ever. It's never easy for a Brazilian team to play in Argentina, especially in La Bombonera, but I just can't see Timao losing this game. GL!
Corinthians DNB @ 1.96, 5/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Apr 17, 2013
Cerro Porteno - Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Very similar pick to
the one from last week, as once again we will go against Cerro Porteno.
They have 0 points after the first 5 rounds, so they obviously have zero
chances of advancing. Everybody is aware of that, so for the second
straight week, they will be fielding a reserve team in Libertadores.
Last week they have rested all of their regulars, and were trashed 1-5
by Real Garcilaso. Of course, the high altitude from Cuzco also played a
big role, especially in the second half when Cerro's players colapsed,
but the overall impression of the team was bad. And for this match, the
coach will pretty much repeat the same team, using just reserve players
and youngsters (only Nanni can be considered a former regular).
Meanwhile, Tolima comes to Paraguay guns blazing, as they have the
qualification on the line. They need to win, and they also need to hope
that Santa Fe will beat Garcilaso as well, making it a Colombian 1-2.
But
before they can think of the other game, they will need to secure the 3
points here. They will have a couple of important players unavailable,
so their job won't be easy without the likes of Leichtweis (9 app/4
goals in the local league + 4 more goals in Libertadores) and Roberto
Merino (6/2). But they've proved they can play even without them, so I
trust they will be able to deliver now as well. They are in a must-win
situation, against an unexperienced team, so I expect them to prevail.
GL!
Tolima (-0.25 AH) @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch
the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The
Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a
draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw
to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match
against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a
team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their
incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team
to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending
and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game
so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But
their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima
and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic
defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as
I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they
lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal.
GL!
Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Result: 2-0, LOST
Apr 11, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Cerro Porteno
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now. They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON
Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now. They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON
Apr 5, 2013
The Strongest - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON
In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON
Apr 3, 2013
Santa Fe - Cerro Porteno
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Everything seems to be against Cerro Porteno in this match. They are passing through their worst footballing moment in recent years, as they are rock bottom in both the local league, as well as in Copa Libertadores, and with 0 points in their group, following 3 straight defeats, they have minimal chances to qualify (close to 0 actually). Playing as visitors won't help them either, as Bogota is situated at 2600 meters above sea level, and that is quite a lot for a team not used to playing at such high altitudes. And to top it all, Cerro also have some squad/internal problems. winger Bonet is injured, while two other players have been left out of the trip by the manager's decision: playmaker Fabbro (4/2) and striker Nanni (who, as much as I hate, is still an important piece in the squad). Meanwhile, Santa Fe is flying high, as they are undefeated in the last 10 games in all competitions, and they have the qualification at stake, as Tolima will have a tough match in Cusco against Garcilaso, so a win against Cerro Porteno, corroborated with a failure of Tolima, would assure their qualifciation for around 90%. They are strong enough to see of this challenge, and even though the odds are rather low, I'll take the bet as I don't see Santa Fe failing. GL!
Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Everything seems to be against Cerro Porteno in this match. They are passing through their worst footballing moment in recent years, as they are rock bottom in both the local league, as well as in Copa Libertadores, and with 0 points in their group, following 3 straight defeats, they have minimal chances to qualify (close to 0 actually). Playing as visitors won't help them either, as Bogota is situated at 2600 meters above sea level, and that is quite a lot for a team not used to playing at such high altitudes. And to top it all, Cerro also have some squad/internal problems. winger Bonet is injured, while two other players have been left out of the trip by the manager's decision: playmaker Fabbro (4/2) and striker Nanni (who, as much as I hate, is still an important piece in the squad). Meanwhile, Santa Fe is flying high, as they are undefeated in the last 10 games in all competitions, and they have the qualification at stake, as Tolima will have a tough match in Cusco against Garcilaso, so a win against Cerro Porteno, corroborated with a failure of Tolima, would assure their qualifciation for around 90%. They are strong enough to see of this challenge, and even though the odds are rather low, I'll take the bet as I don't see Santa Fe failing. GL!
Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Mar 15, 2013
Arsenal Sarandi - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
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