FIFA Club World Cup 2013, Semi-final
Atletico MG (-1.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
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Showing posts with label Club World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Club World Cup. Show all posts
Dec 18, 2013
Dec 16, 2012
Corinthians - Chelsea
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Final
My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!
Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!
Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Al Ahly - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Third-place play-off
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Dec 12, 2012
Al Ahly - Corinthians
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Semi-final
Copa Libertadores winners, Corinthians, are entering the competition in the semi-finals, and will play against African champions Al Ahly. From what I've seen so far, the Egyptians are rather poor, especially in defense. They were completely outrun by Hiroshima, several time, as the Japanese had at least 5-6 clear scoring chances, either alone with the keeper or alone with the empty net. And they missed all of them, so only their lack of efficiency allowed Al Ahly to progress. And in addition to a terrible defense, they didn't show much in offense either (although attack was not their objective). They played on counters, and they had a lot of success doing it, scoring 2 goals from 2 chances. Against Corinthians, we should see something else. The Brazilians are much more solid at the back, so I don't think they will be so easy to beat. And in attack, they have a lot quality, with top class players like Paolo Guerrero, and a very solid and well built team. And against a team that showed so many defensive holes, I think they should score at least a couple of goals. Odds dropped a lot since the market opened, but it's still worth taking this bet. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 0-1, VOID
Copa Libertadores winners, Corinthians, are entering the competition in the semi-finals, and will play against African champions Al Ahly. From what I've seen so far, the Egyptians are rather poor, especially in defense. They were completely outrun by Hiroshima, several time, as the Japanese had at least 5-6 clear scoring chances, either alone with the keeper or alone with the empty net. And they missed all of them, so only their lack of efficiency allowed Al Ahly to progress. And in addition to a terrible defense, they didn't show much in offense either (although attack was not their objective). They played on counters, and they had a lot of success doing it, scoring 2 goals from 2 chances. Against Corinthians, we should see something else. The Brazilians are much more solid at the back, so I don't think they will be so easy to beat. And in attack, they have a lot quality, with top class players like Paolo Guerrero, and a very solid and well built team. And against a team that showed so many defensive holes, I think they should score at least a couple of goals. Odds dropped a lot since the market opened, but it's still worth taking this bet. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 0-1, VOID
Dec 9, 2012
Ulsan - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Quarter-finals
I really think we should be seeing some goals here. Both teams are usually offensive-minded and with rather shaky defenses, and this competition is usually pretty high-scoring. Let's start with Ulsan, Asian Champions League winners, with an undefeated run in the competition and with 27 goals scored in 12 matches. In the local league they have finished on 5th place, but even there, the majority of their matches ended with a minimum of 3 goals, having scored 60 games in 44 games, while also conceding 52. They might not have too many foreigners in the team, or too many star-players for that matter, but they have a solid squad, that works very well together. On the other side, we have a Monterrey side who won last seasons CONCACAF Champions League, and are on route to defend their trophy, winning all matches in their group. They do like to play offensive football, and they are usually keen on sending the ball forward. And they do have some classy players in their squad: striker Humberto Suazo (Chilean international), forward Cesar Delgado (ex-Lyon), midfielder Neri Cardozo, defender and captain Jose Maria Basanta, Ecuadorian defender Walter Ayovi and forward Aldo de Nigris. They have a lot of skilled players in their team, but it will be hard against a team as Ulsan. The winner might be tough to pick, but the goals should flow. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON
I really think we should be seeing some goals here. Both teams are usually offensive-minded and with rather shaky defenses, and this competition is usually pretty high-scoring. Let's start with Ulsan, Asian Champions League winners, with an undefeated run in the competition and with 27 goals scored in 12 matches. In the local league they have finished on 5th place, but even there, the majority of their matches ended with a minimum of 3 goals, having scored 60 games in 44 games, while also conceding 52. They might not have too many foreigners in the team, or too many star-players for that matter, but they have a solid squad, that works very well together. On the other side, we have a Monterrey side who won last seasons CONCACAF Champions League, and are on route to defend their trophy, winning all matches in their group. They do like to play offensive football, and they are usually keen on sending the ball forward. And they do have some classy players in their squad: striker Humberto Suazo (Chilean international), forward Cesar Delgado (ex-Lyon), midfielder Neri Cardozo, defender and captain Jose Maria Basanta, Ecuadorian defender Walter Ayovi and forward Aldo de Nigris. They have a lot of skilled players in their team, but it will be hard against a team as Ulsan. The winner might be tough to pick, but the goals should flow. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON
Dec 18, 2011
Santos - Barcelona
FIFA Club World Cup, Final
Ever since this competition began, I had planned a bet on goals, and I was sure about this bet until a couple of days ago. Villa and Alexis's injuries should be quite a blow for Barcelona and it's offensive scheme, so now I'm really scared of this bet, especially since the value is long gone (over 3 @ 1.81 - which were the opening odds at Sbo - would have been a solid bet, but over 3.5 @ 1.97 now is a long way from being takeable). So the handicap looks better and better. Santos's defense was pretty tragic most of the times against Kashiwa, but only after Santos stopped attacking with a comfortable lead, and the Japanese had no other choice but to go all-in attack. The Brazilians are more than capable to score against Barcelona, as the long-shots are probably the best idea against the Spanish giants, and they showed they have some real skills when it comes to this (all 3 goals against Kashiwa were superb, and came from outside the area). And Valdes is not a top-class keeper that can consistently save his team. Counters are also looking good for Santos. And I don't expect Barcelona to look for a trashing here, so if they take the lead, they'll probably settle for their careful and boring passing game. The Libertadores champions shouldn't lose by more than 2 goals, and maybe they could even make a little surprise, since 2 years ago Estudiantes were pretty close to wining this trophy, also in front of Barcelona. GL!
Santos (+1.75 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 0-4, LOST
Dec 14, 2011
Kashiwa - Santos
FIFA Club World Cup, Semi-final
Great value here (despite of the odds dropping quite a bit since the market opened), as these odds are way above the limit, and under my calculations, anything above 1.40 for the Brazilians is pure value. Kashiwa pulled-off a great performance in this tournament, entering it as host club, and reaching the semi-finals. They may have also had some luck, as in the play-off they faced Auckland City and in the quarters faced a 'sleeping' Monterrey (really poor match from the Mexicans, as they could have easily lost the match in regular time - Kashiwa dominated much of the match), but despite their qualification, they also showed a lot of vulnerability. Both Auckland and Monterrey had a couple of chances to score, but only their lack of class prevented them from hurting the Japanese. And if there's one thing that Santos has, that's class, a lot more than Kashiwa. Plenty of talent and experience in their squad, and if we are to name a few players, we don't need to look very far: team-captain Edu Dracena, Elano and Renteria, all of them with European experience, and, of course, young super-talents Neymar and Paulo Henrique Ganso. And pretty much all of Santos's squad is at least one class above the Japanese squad. We'll probably see a full strength team tomorrow on the field (nothing confirmed, but there's no reason to risk a potential final with Barcelona by sending a weak team), and with such a low handicap I think it's worth to stake a bit more. GL!
Santos (-0.75 AH) @ 2.08, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON
Dec 11, 2011
Kashiwa - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup
Two mainly over-ish teams will meet today, so I'm honestly a bit surprised to see such a low line (was expecting something like 2.75). Monterrey, like all mexican teams, plays technical and offensive football, and are usually looking to score, instead of preserving the score. After their Champions League victory, they seemed to disconnect from the league, that is why there weren't any notable performances this season (only 12th place in Apertura), but they still provided some entertaining football, having the 4th best attack in the league, but also the 7th worst defense. Kashiwa plays pretty much the same style, although in their first match against Auckland they chose to keep the 2-0 advantage. Anyway, they had some dangerous offensive surges in the first half, but in the second half, when they decided to sit back and protect their lead, Auckland had a couple of runs that could have made some damage if the level of finishing would have been better. With Monterrey's class being far above Auckland's, I'm expecting them to take their chances, and I believe we should see a nice and exciting match. GL!
Over 2.25 goals @ 1.90, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Dec 15, 2010
Al-Wahda - Pachuca
FIFA Club World Cup
Well, Pachuca really disappointed in the quarter finals, creating far too few dangerous actions to really put enough pressure on the African's defense, and they payed the price for that, losing and being knocked-out of the competition. But now I think it's a good chance to recover our money. Al-Wahda's defense seems even poorer than Mazembe's, as it could have been broken even by Hekari (the Papua New Guineans missed a couple of nice chances, and put some pressure one them in the first half, but their low quality prevented them from scoring), and it was sliced open by Seongnam with 4 goals. And Pachuca just had a bad day against Mazembe, as they definitely got more than they showed. However, their defense is still a problem, as well as their goalkeeper, and with Al-Whada having a couple of very skilled Brazilians (Huga and Fernando Baiano), I'm expecting them to score again, at least one goal. The Mexicans also have some quality forwards, and I just can't believe they will leave the tournament without scoring at least a goal, and with how Al-Wahda's defense presented itself so far, one goal will surely come, and will most likely lead to others. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 2-2, WON
Dec 14, 2010
Mazembe - Internacional
FIFA Club World Cup, Semi-Final
Also think it's time that Mazembe makes a small refund for the money lost on the over in their previous game. They weren't very impressive in their last match. They scored a screamer early in the game, and they just tried to defend the result. They played with a lot of heart, but their defensive ideas weren't too good, and the only reason why they managed to qualify to the semi-final is because Pachuca was close to awful in attack. With Internacional, I expect a whole different story. They have some very good players, and also a very good style of play. They are organized at the back, rarely allowing their opponents any spaces, and when they attack, they can be deadly. D'Alessandro is the playmaker of the team, and their best player, while Alecsandro is the man you can rely upon to put the ball in the back of the net. I really think this should be a clear and easy win for the Brazilians, as the Africans are shaky in the back, and lack too much talent and creativity up-front, relying only on powerful shots, a thing that Internacional rarely allows. The handicap is much better than the over, as for a full win with the over we need 4 goals, and I don't see Mazembe scoring at all. GL!
Internacional (-1.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Dec 10, 2010
Mazembe - Pachuca
FIFA Club World Cup
Good odds for the over here, and I'll take them with some higher stakes than usual, as I see a nice opportunity for several goals. The CONCACAF and CAF champions are facing each other on Friday, and we have two pretty offensive teams. Pachuca is one of the teams from Mexico that it's worth watching, because very rarely they finish a match without both of the teams scoring (they have conceded at least 1 goal in all their matches in the Mexican league this season). So that explains why they have one of the best attacks in the league, but also one of the worst defenses. Strikers Cvitanich and Arizala (both of them in very good form) are sure to cause some damage to the African's defense, as they fit perfectly in Pachuca's fast attacking tactics, while it is a usual thing that African defenders and goalkeepers are far from trustworthy. Meanwhile, since Mazembe can't really count on their defense, they are also employing an offensive style of play, and knowing how 'well' Pachuca defends, I'm pretty sure we'll be in for another match in which both teams will score. The Mexicans should normally win this match in regular time, and the odds aren't bad, but somehow I like this bet more. 2-1 would be my call. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 5/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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