Santos - U de Chile

Recopa Sudamericana 2012

In the first leg, I went for goals, as I was expecting a committed performance from both teams. And I was so wrong... Santos did play well, and had several good chances to score, including a missed penalty in the first half. But the goal never came, thus the match ending 0-0. What we can take from that match is that Santos played much better, as visitors, and U de Chile showed little of the football that charmed us in the last 2 seasons. So I won't be getting my hopes up today. It is very difficult to play in Brazil, and Santos is a top class team. With all the regular and star players ready to go, I'm expecting a very good line-up for the Brazilians, as they should dominate the game. It won't be very easy, I admit that, so don't expect a trashing, but the victory should come eventually. U de Chile should still have a good offense, so it won't be a surprise if they score, but their defensive line has shown a lot of inconsistency lately: in their last 10 games in all competitions, they have only managed to win 3, all of them in the local league. And in those last 10 matches, they have indeed managed to score 17 goals, but they have also conceded 16. Even so, I won't be taking the over again, as I'm expecting Santos's force to overpower the Chileans. GL!

Santos (-0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

U de Chile - Santos

Recopa Sudamericana 2012

When you see this two team playing against each other, you can only think of one thing: goals! Even though U de Chile has slightly changed compared to the last season, they are still adepts of the same style of play, which means attacking play. They always try to press and to get the ball forward, and their counter attacks are also deadly. That's why it comes as no surprise that in the local league they have the best offense, with 44 goals scored in 17 matches, 13 goals more than the team with the second best offense. And while we can not compare Chilean teams with Santos, the Brazilian defense is not brilliant either, so they might allow some goals tonight. Santos is playing usually a bit more defensively, but with their defense, that's not making a lot of difference. That why we can see they recorded overs in their last 6 matches, and in 5 of them both teams scored. The thing with them is that they have excellent individual players, who can scored from basically nothing: Neymar, Ganso, Miralles, etc. So I expect both teams to continue with their recent trends, and normally, this match should be overish, with both teams getting on the score sheet. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Santos - Bolivar

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Very early bet here, as despite the line being quite high (although fully expected), the odds should drop in the next couple of days. So, here we have first of all a high quality difference between the teams. Home side are the reigning champions of Copa Libertadores, and runner-ups in the Club World Cup of last year. On the other side, we have a Bolivian team whom we can't say is in a very good moment, and they are also a team that are traditionally poor travelers (home they have a huge altitude advantage, but when you take that away from them, they are below average). However, they still got 4 points of of 9 as visitors, in the group stages. But this time it should be different. Besides the above mentioned quality difference, Santos also have the motivation to take this game seriously. Losing 1-2 in the first leg, they have no other option than to win here, in order to avoid the shameful 'performance' of being eliminated by a Bolivian team. Even though a 1-0 win should be enough for them, I am very sure they won't approach the match with this in mind. Two goals are the minimum that I expect, but normally, this match should have plenty. Small stakes only, as the Brazilians to have a tendency to become lazy. GL!

Santos (-2 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 8-0, WON

Bolivar - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Two offensive teams will face each other tonight, in the high altitude of La Paz. Santos has tons of more quality compared to the Bolivian team (Neymar, Elano, Renteria, Borges, etc), no one doubts that, but the hosts also have one huge advantage, in the form of the high altitude. Santos already played in La Paz this year, losing against The Strongest, 1-2, in the last minute of play. They suffered indeed from the altitude, but even so, they lost that match on their own, missing around 5-6 sitters in the second half. Hopefully, they will improve their finishing record today, because Bolivar isn't known for their strong defensive performances. Even more, the Bolivians know that their only chance to qualify is to take a good result to Brazil, so they will use an offensive formation, with 3 forwards, and since they should also have better skills than The Strongest, goals should come (4 of their 6 group matches ended with at least 3 goals, including here all 3 of their home matches). The line should've been set at 2.75, so this bet also has a bit value (had more, but the odds dropped lately). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.83, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Santos - Juan Aurich

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

This is pretty much a repeat of last week's bet, with the only difference being that this time Santos will play at home, and have a sky high handicap. I usually don't like playing these handicaps (as I always end up looking like an idiot when they don't deliver), but this time I just can't see how we won't have at least a void. The quality difference was clear in the first leg, despite Aurich taking an early lead. Santos controlled the match and scored 3 goals, without even getting into second gear, hardly breaking a sweat. Besides, they can't afford to mess around, as they are tied on points with Inter and the Strongest, so a fail today could complicate their situation. But since they've beaten Inter at home with 3-1, I see no reason why they would take pitty of Aurich. The Peruvians are already knocked-out of their group (theoretically, they still have chances to qualify, but will need to take 6 points from Inter and Santos, and that is close to impossible), so I doubt their will to play and make a good result. They will probably just try to defend for as long as possible, but Santos has tons of individually skilled players, that could break that defense. Not going with higher stakes here, as there is no value, but it's a bet that 99% can't fail.

Santos (-2 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10

Result: 2-0, VOID

Juan Aurich - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Juan Aurich, defending champions of the Peruvian league, but nowadawys, that title scares no one, not even the small Peruvian teams. With 5 matches so far this year, Juan Aurich have won none, losing both their Libertadores appearances (0-2 at Internacional and 1-2 at The Strongest), while from their 3 domestic matches, they only have one point, despite playing against some lowly teams like Jose Galvez, Union Comercio or Cobresol. Total lack of form, and I would be very surprised to see them rise from the ashes against the Brazilian giants, defending champions of Copa Libertadores. They started this year's campaign with an unbelievable loss in Bolivia, after wasting 4-5 great chances to score, before conceding the losing goal in the 90th minute. But, after that, they recovered nicely, beating Internacional 3-1, at home, with a hattrick from Neymar. No point in discussing quality differences here, as it is obvious the Brazilians are much better, and a full squad is expected from them, as they rested almost their entire team in the weekend match against Mogi Mirim. This time, there will be no altitude difference (unlike the match against The Strongest), so Santos should play at full power, and take the win. GL!

Santos (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10

Result: 1-3, WON

The Strongest - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Very nice odds on Santos, so let's see if we can take advantage from them. Despite being the reigning champions of the Copa Libertadores, and having an awesome squad for any standards, Santos are just very slight favorites for this match, and the main reason for that is, of course, the high altitude from the city of La Paz (nearly 3600 meters above sea level). And while the altitude issue has been decisive in many cases, a strong enough team will deal with it somehow, and you still need a pretty solid team to win the home game. And The Strongest isn't one of those strong teams. Last season, Santos made a good performance to win 1-0 in Manizales, which is also set at around 2000 meters above sea level. Of course, there's a difference between 2000 and 3600, but there is also a difference (quite big) between a good and solid team like Once Caldas, and a rather average team from Bolivia. Santos will take on this match with all their big guns, including Neymar, Ganso, Edu Dracena, Elano, Renteria, and their new signing from Porto, Jorge Fucile. So, in terms of quality, they are miles ahead of The Strongest, and if they can get a fast goal, the game should pretty much be over, as they also know how to control the game with prolonged possession. Higher stake than usual, because I really see a solid bet. GL!

Santos DNB @ 1.87, 6/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Santos - Barcelona

FIFA Club World Cup, Final

Ever since this competition began, I had planned a bet on goals, and I was sure about this bet until a couple of days ago. Villa and Alexis's injuries should be quite a blow for Barcelona and it's offensive scheme, so now I'm really scared of this bet, especially since the value is long gone (over 3 @ 1.81 - which were the opening odds at Sbo - would have been a solid bet, but over 3.5 @ 1.97 now is a long way from being takeable). So the handicap looks better and better. Santos's defense was pretty tragic most of the times against Kashiwa, but only after Santos stopped attacking with a comfortable lead, and the Japanese had no other choice but to go all-in attack. The Brazilians are more than capable to score against Barcelona, as the long-shots are probably the best idea against the Spanish giants, and they showed they have some real skills when it comes to this (all 3 goals against Kashiwa were superb, and came from outside the area). And Valdes is not a top-class keeper that can consistently save his team. Counters are also looking good for Santos. And I don't expect Barcelona to look for a trashing here, so if they take the lead, they'll probably settle for their careful and boring passing game. The Libertadores champions shouldn't lose by more than 2 goals, and maybe they could even make a little surprise, since 2 years ago Estudiantes were pretty close to wining this trophy, also in front of Barcelona. GL!

Santos (+1.75 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10

Result: 0-4, LOST

Kashiwa - Santos

FIFA Club World Cup, Semi-final

Great value here (despite of the odds dropping quite a bit since the market opened), as these odds are way above the limit, and under my calculations, anything above 1.40 for the Brazilians is pure value. Kashiwa pulled-off a great performance in this tournament, entering it as host club, and reaching the semi-finals. They may have also had some luck, as in the play-off they faced Auckland City and in the quarters faced a 'sleeping' Monterrey (really poor match from the Mexicans, as they could have easily lost the match in regular time - Kashiwa dominated much of the match), but despite their qualification, they also showed a lot of vulnerability. Both Auckland and Monterrey had a couple of chances to score, but only their lack of class prevented them from hurting the Japanese. And if there's one thing that Santos has, that's class, a lot more than Kashiwa. Plenty of talent and experience in their squad, and if we are to name a few players, we don't need to look very far: team-captain Edu Dracena, Elano and Renteria, all of them with European experience, and, of course, young super-talents Neymar and Paulo Henrique Ganso. And pretty much all of Santos's squad is at least one class above the Japanese squad. We'll probably see a full strength team tomorrow on the field (nothing confirmed, but there's no reason to risk a potential final with Barcelona by sending a weak team), and with such a low handicap I think it's worth to stake a bit more. GL!

Santos (-0.75 AH) @ 2.08, 5/10

Result: 1-3, WON

Santos - Colo Colo

Copa Libertadores

Both of these two teams are coming after a tough moment, and they need to improve rapidly if they want to avoid a crisis or some problems with the fans. Colo Colo enters this match as leaders of the group, with 6 points, and a win in Brazil will pretty much secure their qualification. The thing is that they haven't won a single game since beating Santos a few weeks ago. Their chances to win the national title are 0, and the fans are showing signs of unrest, and a loss tonight will only flare the tempers even more, as Colo could find itself in a very bad situation also in Libertadores, especially if Tachira wins Cerro Porteno. All 3 of their matches in the group so far have ended with a lot of goals, so that's a good set for this match, especially since Santos desperately needs to win this game, and they need to do it in an impressive fashion. They only have 2 points after 3 matches, so a slip-up here could see them making an early exit from the Copa. And after losing last week's derby against Palmeiras, the players, especially Ganso and Neymar, have been submitted to heavy criticism, so I expect them to be fired up tonight, to prove everybody what they are capable of. Just one over for them in 3 matches, but now they are in quite a critical situation, so they can't afford to sit back, and Colo Colo can hurt any team on the counter attacks. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 3-2, WON