Santos - Bolivar

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Very early bet here, as despite the line being quite high (although fully expected), the odds should drop in the next couple of days. So, here we have first of all a high quality difference between the teams. Home side are the reigning champions of Copa Libertadores, and runner-ups in the Club World Cup of last year. On the other side, we have a Bolivian team whom we can't say is in a very good moment, and they are also a team that are traditionally poor travelers (home they have a huge altitude advantage, but when you take that away from them, they are below average). However, they still got 4 points of of 9 as visitors, in the group stages. But this time it should be different. Besides the above mentioned quality difference, Santos also have the motivation to take this game seriously. Losing 1-2 in the first leg, they have no other option than to win here, in order to avoid the shameful 'performance' of being eliminated by a Bolivian team. Even though a 1-0 win should be enough for them, I am very sure they won't approach the match with this in mind. Two goals are the minimum that I expect, but normally, this match should have plenty. Small stakes only, as the Brazilians to have a tendency to become lazy. GL!

Santos (-2 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 8-0, WON

Bolivar - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Two offensive teams will face each other tonight, in the high altitude of La Paz. Santos has tons of more quality compared to the Bolivian team (Neymar, Elano, Renteria, Borges, etc), no one doubts that, but the hosts also have one huge advantage, in the form of the high altitude. Santos already played in La Paz this year, losing against The Strongest, 1-2, in the last minute of play. They suffered indeed from the altitude, but even so, they lost that match on their own, missing around 5-6 sitters in the second half. Hopefully, they will improve their finishing record today, because Bolivar isn't known for their strong defensive performances. Even more, the Bolivians know that their only chance to qualify is to take a good result to Brazil, so they will use an offensive formation, with 3 forwards, and since they should also have better skills than The Strongest, goals should come (4 of their 6 group matches ended with at least 3 goals, including here all 3 of their home matches). The line should've been set at 2.75, so this bet also has a bit value (had more, but the odds dropped lately). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.83, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Bolivar - Union Espanola

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

This month is not going very well, so let's see if we can salvage anything from it. For this match that will be played in La Paz, plenty of goals should be on the menu. The high altitude definitely puts the visitors in a bad position, and that will probably take it's toll on the players in the latter part of the game. That is why is important for them to make a good start, maybe even to score a fast goal. Union Espanola have been free-scoring lately, with 15 goals in 6 matches in the league, plus 5 more in 3 games of Libertadores, so offensively they are looking good. The coach already said that he will go to Bolivia to win, and for that he plans a rather offensive formation, to take advantage of Bolivar's defensive gaps. The Bolivians also look good when it comes to scoring goals, with 22 scored in 12 matches, and with their status as favorites, they will surely go for the win here, as they know the Chileans will have to cope with the effects of the altitude. Home win is the most probable result, but the handicap is set quite right, so in the case of a probable 2-1 win, the over bet looks much better. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 5/10

Result: 1-3, WON