Nacional - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Nacional -Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Olimpia - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Both teams are passing through some tough times, and the highlights are of course around Olimpia. They've had a rather poor start, with just 4 points from the first 3 games, and what really sparked the fire was their last match a few days ago, when they lost at home 0-1, against newly promoted General Diaz. And their problems are on all levels: the players haven't received their wages for December, there was a mass resignation in the board, and the coach employed several rotations from match to match, trying to keep his players fit for Copa Libertadores. However, things are starting to settle down, as some new directors took over the club, and for today, the best team is expected to take the field (just one regular will miss the game). Rubio Nu didn't enjoy a good start either, as their opening win was marred by two consecutive losses (they also lost last round against a newly promoted team). Of course, no one has too high hopes for them, and if Olimpia will be at full force they should win this game fairly easily, as they have for the past 5 occasions. I'm confident they can put an end to their problems, especially since we have seen them at full potential, and they played like a real force (2-1 win at Guarani and a 3-0 win against U de Chile in Libertadores - both of them being much better teams than Rubio Nu). GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 1.93, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Cerro Porteno - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Reigning champions of the Apertura, Cerro Porteno are in a lot of trouble in the current tournament, as after 4 games, they are without a win, only managing to sum up 2 points. And we can't blame it on a tough schedule, as the only hard match was against Olimpia, and they managed to snatch a draw as visitors. They lost both home games, 1-2 with Guarani and 2-3 with Sol de America, and there are already a lot of discontent voices. Therefore, a win today is a must. And it can well happen... Cerro are bound to bounce back sooner or later, and Rubio Nu looks like the perfect team for that. Rubio hasn't won a single match for 10 games now, and they really look hopeless, despite some spirited draws against Sol and Nacional. They already lost twice to Cerro this season, with a total goal difference of 5-8, so the champions probably won't have a better time to get back into form. Full squad is expected for Cerro, with only one change: Santiago Salcedo will play instead of Roberto Nanni, and this should be a positive change. GL!

Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Sol de America - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

I like this increase in the odds quite a lot. If we take an overall look at these two teams, I think it is clearly that Sol has a better team than Rubio. They were fighting for a better position in the top half of the table for almost the entire Apertura, finishing on 4th place, while Rubio were struggling constantly, and only finished the tournament on 11th place. And from what we've seen in the first round of Clausura, things didn't change too much, and if they did, it was for the worse. Rubio lost at home, 0-3 against Olimpia, and while no one expected too much from them in that match, it was a very poor performance... maybe even poorer than in the Apertura. Meanwhile, Sol de America had a tough encounter with Carapegua, and were able to snatch a point. So today they should have the better morale on the field, and I'm sure they'll push for the 3 points. They also have an advantage against Rubio when it comes to head-to-head results, as they've already beaten them twice this season, with an aggregate of 5-0. So I'm expecting another relatively easy win, and I'm going with higher stakes, due to the increase in the odds, which gives us quite a nice value. GL!

Sol (-0.75 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Olimpia - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

A lot of internal problems happened this week for Olimpia, and coming into this match, the mood should be far from great. Especially since three of their most important players have been excluded from the team: Adrian Romero, Vladimir Marin and Sergio Orteman (the last 2 are very important players, offensive midfielders, and I was always confident in Olimpia when they were playing). They still have great players, and a good enough team to suceed, but without these players it will obviously be much harder. Another absence will be of Meza, who is suspended. Also, their form hasn't been the best lately, making only 4 points in the last 3 matches: a hard fought victory at Carapegua, a 3-3 home draw with Cerro de Franco, and a 0-3 trashing by Independiente. So, not impressive results, against less than impressive teams. Rubio Nu are no scare-crows, as they haven't won a match since the beginning of April, but they can pull off some great results from time to time (their last win was against Nacional, as visitors). And while they are nowhere near Olimpia's quality, I think that now they stand a chance to at least lose by the minimum, as Olimpia has some serious issues of it's own. GL!

Rubio (+1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 1-0, HALF-WON

Nacional - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The handicap is a bit bigger than what I had hoped for (I was seeing -0.75 in my fantasies), so while there's almost value in this bet, it's also one with slim to none chances of failing, as anything other than a home win would be a huge surprise. The class diference between these teams is obvious even if we only look at the standings. Nacional is fighting for the top spots, sitting on 3rd currently, 5 points behind the leaders, while Rubio, despite their high pre-season expectations, are only on 9th place, with 10 points from 9 matches. The hosts are really playing well this season, especially at home, where they have 5 consecutive victories in the league. The full squad has been called up for today's game, so there are very big chances to see their best 11 on the pitch, despite their Libertadores duties from next week. Meanwhile, Rubio are in a slump of form, managing to take only 4 points from their last 7 games, and even those points aren't impressive, drawing away at Luqueno and beating Independiente at home. As visitors, they haven't won a match in 4 tries, having a total of 11 goals conceded in those 4 games. They are simply poor this season, and can't really see how they will be able to take something from today's game. At least a one-goal win for Nacional is highly expected, so this bet looks very safe. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Rubio Nu - General Caballero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Odds went up for this match, without too much explanations, thus giving us what I see as some very nice value on the home team. The lines is now -0.75, and for that we have better odds than the original -1. Both teams are still fighting for something, although objectively speaking only Rubio Nu has some real chances of achieving something. They are currently sitting in the last place that qualifies to Copa Sudamericana, and if they want to keep it, they need to win here, as Guarani is just 2 points behind them. Morale should be high after last weekend's surprise win at Nacional, and they also have a domination of Caballero, having won all 3 of their matches this year. General Caballero is trying hard to avoid relegation, but nothing seems to be going their way. They are last in the promedio standings, and from my calculations they would need to win 3 of the last 4 matches in order to remain in the division (assuming Luqueno also loses all of their matches), but with their current form (lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a shocking 3-7 loss at home to 3 de Febrero), I doubt there is much they can do. GL!

Rubio (-0.75 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10

Abandoned in 42nd minute due to crowd violence, VOID

Rubio Nu - Independiente FBC

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Rubio is a very strong team when playing at home, and once again, I'm surprised by the rather high odds available for them (wouldn't have expected more than 1.60, to be honest). Especially now, since they are finding some form, coming after 2 consecutive victories, at home against 3 de Febrero, and their latest being away at Olimpia, where they made a very good match, defending solidly, and striking 3 times, 2 of them coming after some excellent counter attacks. Newly promoted Independiente can't seem to find it's feet in the Primera Division, currently sitting on the 8th place (pretty decent if we look only in the table), but with the way they play they will probably finish the season lower. They have only won 2 matches so far, away at fellow promoted General Caballero, and last round at home, against defensive Tacuary. But their record against the bigger teams looks bad, playing so far against Olimpia, Nacional and Cerro Porteno, losing with all 3 of them. No recent matches between them and Rubio, but I'm surely giving a big advantage for the home side, which should be more than capable of taking all the 3 points today. GL!

Rubio Nu (-0.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Olimpia Asuncion - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Olimpia's semi-fail finally came, and it was more or less expected (though not worthy enough to risk a bet against them), as all the teams find it hard to play against Tacuary and their ultra-defensive 8-1-1 formation. But despite their mid-week draw, Olimpia is still sitting pretty in the standings, 7 points ahead of second-placed Nacional. Now they are eager to get back to winning ways, and again they will use their best formation, as there are no unavailable players. Rubio plays a similar style to Tacuary's, crowding their defense and hoping for a lucky counter. But they just do it as well as Tacuary, and their strategy only works against the smaller teams, which they usually beat 1-0. Against the bigger teams, that have better players and a more suffocating style of play, and that can be seen in their results: conceded 2 goals from Cerro Porteno (although they managed to tie the game, but Cerro was in their maximum-retardation period), and last week they lost 1-4 at Libertad, a team that plays nowhere near as fast and as deadly as Olimpia is. I've said it in previous analysis as well, Olimpia is playing great, both at home and away, always going forward, always looking for the goal, and they have some very good players that can score any time, even from set pieces. Rubio will kost likely defend in numbers, but if Olimpia's goal comes in the first half, the score could and should get some bigger proportions. GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10

Result: 1-3, LOST

Rubio Nu - 3 de Febrero

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Not much of a good form for any of these teams, as both have just a win this season. However, the style of play has been much different, and so has also been the quality of the teams they had to face, and the results recorded. After their first round win, Rubio hasn't won a single match, but they have played against some of the big names of the league: Cerro Porteno, Nacional and Libertad. Also against Tacuary, which put up a lot of effort, and have recorded good results against the big teams. And in this matches, Rubio have only lost 2, managing to draw against Cerro Porteno and Nacional. So, for Rubio must be a relief to face some of the 'weaker' opposition. 3 de Febrero have also won just in the first round, followed by 6 win-less matches. And to lose away at Luqueno, draw at General Caballero and lose at home with Sol de America isn't something to be proud about. Both teams should snap out of their form sooner or later, but I'd rather see Rubio doing it sooner. To win in La Arboleda is a tough task for pretty much anybody, as Rubio are known for being a pretty strong home side. Normally, odds should be higher than 1.50-1.60 for them, so with the current odds must be worth a shot on the hosts. GL!

Rubio Nu (-0.5 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Rubio Nu - Sol de America

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Again, very high odds for what should be an easy home win. Rubio Nu is usually a very strong home team in Paraguay, and very rarely loses matches when playing in La Arboleda, but they also have a bad habit of retarding when people least expect them, that is why they are hard to beat at home, but also have many many draws (last year they lost just 5 from 22, usually against the big teams of the league). They made a few signings during the pre-season, but nothing special that can stand out. However, despite their lack of star players, they had a good preparation camp, with good results and solid play, so they should be ready for this tournament. Sol de America is traditionally a poor team away from home (5 wins out of 22 in 2010), and can rarely snatch points against better opposition. And while Rubio Nu isn't something special in the league, they certainly have more power and quality than Sol. As far as head-to-head goes, Rubio won 4 out of 5 at home, the only defeat coming in 2009, right after their promotion, when almost anybody had chances to beat them. Last year we had two confident results for the hosts, 5-0 in Apertura and 2-1 in Clausura. As I said, this should be an easy home win, and the odds have plenty if value, but the stakes will remain small, because Rubio has a natural talent of making it harder for themselves than it should be. GL!

Rubio Nu (-0.5 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON