Olimpia - Libertad

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The Paraguayan league returns to action this mid-week, and a Clasico will for sure catch everyone's eyes. Olimpia and Libertad face each other in a match that could decide the title. Olimpia can take one more step towards the title if they win, while Libertad can get right back into the fight, and could also leave the door wide open for Cerro Porteno, who are 3 points behind the leaders. I did mention in several previous occasions that Olimpia kicked-out some players, due to indiscipline, and those players were quite key pieces in their formation: Marin, Orteman and Romero. And ever since that happened, they have suffered visibly in their last-gasp win over Rubio Nu and their draw with Nacional (they have only won 1 from their last 4 matches). Libertad is one of the most solid teams from Paraguay, and they aren't in a better position simply because Copa Libertadores took it's toll on their league performances. But now they should go back to normal, as they are in quite good form, as they proved last week when they won 2-1 at Nacional. Olimpia could struggle one more time, against a traditionally strong opponent (they have beaten Libertad only once in their last 10 official games), so this bet looks like a very good one. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Libertad - Sportivo Carapegua

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Libertad are losing space in the Primera Division, for which they need to start summing up points again. Two consecutive defeats against rivals from Cerro Porteno and Olimpia put a serious dent in their title aspirations, as they are now currently 9 points behind leaders Olimpia. That difference could be 6 points, but for that, Libertad needs to go out and take the win tonight. Carapegua is on fire lately, and comes after 3 consecutive wins, but only the one against Nacional can be considered a great achievement (matches against Rubio Nu and Independiente are usually up for grabs for everyone). However, I don't expect this good form to last forever, and Libertad should have plenty of quality and motivation to end it. Especially since in their away matches, Carapegua only won the aforementioned match at Rubio, otherwise losing at Cerro de Franco and Olimpia, and drawing at Luqueno. Libertad has no Libertadores duties next week, so they can field their best team. Motivation should also be at a maximum level, as another wrong turn will definitely knock them out of the title fight. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Vasco - Libertad

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco has been a real rollercoaster so far: they lost at home to Nacional, they've let a 1-0 lead slip through their fingers in Paraguay, and they beat Alianza 3-2, after a very entertaining match in which they also missed 2 penalties. It is clear that quality wise they are the best team in the group, so their inability to top the group must be psychical. Today, however, the players really seem to be fired up, and will try a repeat of their performance from Paraguay, which normally should translate in a home win tonight. However, Libertad is not an easy team to beat, and they aren't the leaders for nothing. A point for them would be great, and would pretty much assure them of the top spot, but I don't think they'll focus 100% on defense. The Brazilian defense makes a lot of mistakes, so there will be a lot of spaces for Libertad to exploit, especially since I'm expecting Vasco to go out guns blazing, searching for the goal since the beginning. Very nice odds for the over, which has serious chances of delivering. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.79, 5/10

Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST

Sol de America - Libertad

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Same principle here as last week, in Sol's match against Nacional. The thing is, although they lost that match, they didn't play that well, and there were some emotions before the 2-0 and after the 2-1. Sol showed that they aren't a defensive team, and they like to come out and play. And that should also suit Libertad, who have the tendency to do better against teams that leave some spaces behind, instead of closing in defense. Libertad are one of the best teams in Paraguay, and their record in 2012 definitely proves that, as they have lost only one match (at high altitude, in Ecuador), otherwise winning 5 and drawing another 2. Those two draws have been their latest results, one of them after leading Guarani by 2-0, so a win is a must today. Especially since this is their last 'easy' game, before a death-run against Olimpia, Cerro Porteno and a double-meeting with Vasco da Gama for Libertadores. History is also on their side, as Libertad have won their last 10 consecutive matches played at Sol, not losing since 2003 (although Sol left the Primera Division between 2004-2007). There are some fitness gambles over the players that were called-up to the national team, but I doubt the starting 11 will change too much from their usual line-up. GL!

Libertad (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 0-3, WON

Libertad Asuncion - El Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012

Libertad lost in the first leg, by a narrow 0-1, so I was expecting a -0.75 to bank on it, but unfortunately, the bookies only offer -1 at some pretty low odds. So this definitely isn't a value bet, but still, it's a bet that should be a winner (or at least not a loser). The first match was considered to be an equal affair, and indeed it was. El Nacional won, but it really could have gone either way, with Libertad creating several chances, but failing to score any of them. So, with the background set, we come to the second leg, which I expect to be a bit different. The Paraguayans will surely take on a more offensive approach, as they are trailing by one goal, while the Ecuador side already expressed their plans to use a more defensive minded strategy. What will be the deciding factor then? First of all, Libertad has an overall better team than the Ecuadorians, and it is a more solid team, with more international experience. Then, El Nacional won't have the altitude advantage as in the first leg, and that also drops their chances for this match. Finally, Libertad is a very tough team to beat when playing at home, and teams like LDU Quito, Sao Paulo and Fluminense stand proof for that. They should qualify, but even if they don't, a win shouldn't be under question. Small stakes only, because of the lack of value of this bet. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

El Nacional - Libertad Asuncion

Copa Libertadores 2012

El Nacional was the surprise package in the Ecuadorian Serie A last season, pulling off a great season, and finally taking the last Libertadores spot, after a play-off with 3rd placed LDU, taking advantage of the Albos packed schedule and player rotations, due to their Sudamericana final. However, their merit still exists, and now they have high hopes of qualifying for the main stage of Copa Libertadores, especially since they have kept most of their players from last year, trying to build on that. The problem with them is that the players are very young, and are lacking international experience, so they might find that a solid team from Paraguay is too much for them. Young players have a lot of energy, and will to perform, but they might also lose their head fast if put under pressure. Also, statistics are against them: last time they played Libertadores was the Preliminary round in 2009, when they were knocked-out by Nacional of Paraguay, while in their mutual matches with Libertad (2005 and 2006) they made 2 draws and lost the other 2. Libertad is a very solid team, with a lot of experience on this stage, having won their Libertadores groups for the last 3 years, also being undefeated in the group stage in the last 2 years. They have also kept most of their players from last season, so we will probably see a well built team, with a good and comfortable system. They have previously pulled of good results against better teams than them, so El Nacional shouldn't scare them. The only real advantage the Ecuadorians might have is the high altitude, but Libertad also showed they can handle it (last match played in Quito was last year in Sudamericana, against LDU, and they made a very good match, despite losing unluckily in the 90th minute). They can also do some serious damage on the counter-attack (I'm expecting El Nacional to try and take control of the match), so with this handicap line I'm willing to try a small bet. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Sportivo Luqueno - Libertad

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

The league championship from Paraguay is entering into it's last minutes in 2011, and with 2 rounds remaining, we have 3 teams fighting for the title. Libertad is in the most uncomfortable position of all the 3, as they are on 3rd place, 2 points behind leaders Olimpia, and 1 point behind Cerro Porteno. They were the leaders until last week, but the 0-1 defeat against Cerro diminished their chances. Anyway, they have all to fight for, as the diference is small, and Olimpia has a slightly more difficult schedule then them. And this should be their main focus, as if Cerro wins the title, Libertad enters Copa Libertadores only if they finish better than Olimpia in the aggregate standings (currently 5 points behind). Luqueno is in a deep crysis, having not won a single match from the last 11 they played. Even so, they are pretty much saved from relegation, and the only way they could drop would be for General Caballero to win both their remaining matches, or for 3 Febrero to do the same in order to force a play-out. But since that is pretty much science-fiction, Luqueno comes into this match without high hopes and expectations, and they should be thrown aside easily by Libertad. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Libertad - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

A small bet on the underdog here. This is a big opportunity for Guarani to get back into race for the top positions, despite currently sitting 10 points behind the leaders. Libertad is in the middle of their quarter-final duties in Copa Sudamericana, and their minimum 0-1 loss in Quito leaves them with some solid chances to turn that result around. But, after a great effort and great determination from the players in the high altitude from Ecuador, plus the road there and back, they may have emptied their gas tanks, that is why the coach will field an alternative team. It is not yet certain how many regulars will be rested, but don't expect much from those that will play, as fatigue will surely leave a mark on them. For Guarani this should be a wake-up call, as they have been performing below expectations recently, so a match against Libertad should give them the determination to gain some credibility. The handicap line is nice, also covers us in case of a draw, so it should be worth a few units. GL!

Guarani (+0.25 AH) @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 3-2, LOST

LDU Quito - Libertad

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

I'm going early with this bet, as odds already started to drop heavily, and will most likely continue to do so. The quarter-finals of the Copa Sudamericana presents us a few surprise teams, and one of them is Libertad Asuncion, who pulled off a great win and qualification against Sao Paulo. But now they have an even harder task, as they have odds against them. First, they have to face LDU Quito, a strong cup opponent, who is always a threat in the continental competitions, especially at home, as they have a huge advantage in the high altitude from Quito. Secondly, Libertad could also feel some heavy legs, as they played 4 matches in the last 10 days, and the coach had little chances to rotate his squad, as Libertad is also fighting for the national title. So, a run of many games, combined with the jet-lag and the effects of the altitude, don't look to good for the Paraguayans. LDU had a slightly easier schedule, and their excellent home form in the continental competitions give them the edge here. No important injuries for any of them, and I'm confident LDU will head into the second leg with an advantage. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Libertad - 3 de Febrero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Libertad seems to be in great form, as after 4 rounds of the Clausura, they are on second place, one point behind the leaders Olimpia. And that is quite impressive, especially if we look at their tough schedule, because in the first rounds, they have already played against 3 of the main runners to the title: drew at home 1-1 with Nacional, beat Olimpia 2-1 with a late goal, and last week they trashed Guarani away from home, 3-0. Good form, and good play for Libertad, as they take on 3 de Febrero, where they will surely want another victory. Meanwhile, 3 de Febrero looks set to struggle against relegation for what's left of this season, and their recent form is nothing but to worry about, as they haven't taken a single point in these first few rounds. 3 home defeats, against Tacuary, Guarani and Rubio, along a 0-4 loss at Olimpia, so the difference in quality between them and the front-runners is more than obvious. Libertad has won 8 of the last 10 home games with 3 Febrero, including some whooping 5-0 and 8-0 results in the last couple of years, so I expect them to once again be at the top of their play, and another high scoring victory is very possible. GL!

Libertad (-1.25 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

Libertad - Fluminense

Copa Libertadores

Another bet for today, but smaller stakes, as I don't feel so confident as with the other match. Libertad were really impressive in the group stage, being undefeated, and having one of the most prolific attacks, only behind Cruzeiro and Inter, and they practically cruised through the group. Can't say they had to face some very tough opponents (Once Caldas, San Martin, San Luis), but their style of play looked very solid and confident. Meanwhile, Fluminense qualified for the next round quite undeservedly, as they finished level on points with Nacional Montevideo, and only qualified due to some dodgy last minutes against Argentinos Juniors, as they took the advantage with more goals scored than Nacional, after a late penalty in Argentina. In the first leg, Libertad didn't make such a bad match, actually managing to put some pressure on the Brazilians in the beginning of the second half, creating some chances and even scoring the equalizer. Some late goals gave Flu a big advantage, but Libertad still looks promising for this return leg, and even though the qualification is pretty far, I'm sure they'll give their best. Fluminense don't have to panic, as they sit comfortable with a 2-goals lead, and I see Libertad taking over the match, and will probably win it. GL!

Libertad (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Libertad - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

There should be no debate over who is superior in class here, as Libertad has better individual players than San Luis, and also performs better as a team. But what is important here is motivation. Libertad has comfortably won the group, after a great run of results, but things are not done for them yet. With 3 more points tonight, they will have 14, and they will pretty much secure second place in the aggregate tables of the group winners, thus assuring they would play one of the weaker teams that finished as runner-ups. And just to show how serious they are, they rested some of the regulars in the league, in order to keep them fresh for this final match of the group. They might be in poor form in the league, without a win for 4 matches, but 2 of them were against Guarani and Nacional, and those matches are never easy to win, while in the other 2 there were some rotations. San Luis is in an even worse form, and they've managed to win only a single game from the last 14 they played, and despite still having chances to qualify, I don't see them capable of doing it, as they need to win in Paraguay, and also San Martin not to win. They are also missing a few important players, and if we add that to their trip from Mexico, and also the fact that they used the regulars in the weekend, I think we have a clear winner in Libertad. Small stakes though. GL!

Libertad (-0.5 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Libertad - Sol de America

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Libertad has almost finished with the continental campaign, and it has been more than a success, having already won their group, and having a great chance of making 14 points. And even more encouraging, they are also doing a great campaign in the league, where they could be 2 points behind the leaders Olimpia if they win this and their postponed match from next week. This proves that they have some quality players, and a lot of strength in depth, otherwise they couldn't have fared so well in the 2 tournaments, as is usually the case with South American teams. No changes expected today, so the players are likely to fancy 3 more points, against the worst team in the league. Sol de America will have 2 absences, quite important: goalkeeper Rojas and defender Diego Arrua. They also have the worst defense in the entire league, and their form is dreadful, being without a win for 9 matches, managing some draws only against some equally poor teams, like Tacuary, Luqueno and Independiente. Quality and class advantage are clearly in Libertad's favor, and I just don't see them failing to win this match, especially since they have won 14 of their last 15 matches with Sol, 8 of them with a margin of at least 2 goals. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Libertad - General Caballero

Paraguay Primera Division

It's a start also in the Paraguayan championship, and as an opener match we'll have reigning champions Libertad against newly promoted General Caballero. Without any doubt, the hopes and future trajectories of this two clubs are as opposed as it can get. Libertad are gunning for the title again, and are confident of a strong start, trying to make a point in front of their title rivals. Meanwhile, Caballero will be happy to avoid the drop, although that very difficult. Libertad preserved most of their players that helped them win the Clausura last year, as only 2 of them left: one of the top scorers, Pablo Velazquez, and midfielder Wilson Pitonni. But, the few signings that Libertad made should cover their absences, especially in attack, where Nicolas Pavlovich showed good form in the pre-season friendlies. Caballero don't have much to brag about, and their squad is among the poorest of the first division. They'll have a lot of work to do in order to avoid relegation, and if one thing is certain is that they won't be winning points away at the giants (if at all). I'm counting on a strong start from Libertad, and if they catch a good day, the result could get ugly for the visitors. GL!

Libertad (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 5/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Libertad - Sportivo Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Libertad lost surprisingly last week at 3 de Febrero, and missed a huge chance to get back in the lead for the Clausura title (although I wouldn't be surprised if that match was a bit fishy, as the odds for 3 de Febrero were highly exaggerated). But with Cerro Porteno also drawing, Libertad didn't lose too much ground, and are just one point behind them, with plenty of time for things to change. Today they will face Sportivo Luqueno, and everything points towards a nice home win. Their team is without important absences, and all the regulars are expected to play tonight, including top scorers Maciel and Orue, so they will be looking forward to do some damage. Besides, whenever they are playing on Nicolas Leoz, they are turning into monsters, and as proof, they haven't failed to win a single game at home in Clausura, and scored a massive average of 3 goals per match, while receiving just 1. Libertad should also have a morale advantage over Luqueno, as they won the last 2 direct meetings, both of them played in Luque, and despite losing at home against them in March, they can use the excuse of being amidst a fixture congestion, due to their participation in Libertadores. Today, they will have no excuses, and everybody expects to see the spectacular Libertad that they have become. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Libertad - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Things couldn't get any better for Libertad. They are on the first place in the league, won 5 out of 6 games, last week they trashed Trinidense 7-0, and their game-plan works perfect. Cunning attack, solid defense, good creativity. And unless they get complacent, they have a serious shot at the title, as both Cerro and Guarani look a bit off pace, not even worth mentioning Nacional and Olimpia. Libertad has one of the best squads in Paraguay, and has no injury or suspension problems for tonight's match, so they will pretty much repeat the same squad that score 7 goals last weekend. The only change in the team will see Vladimir Marin take the field in place of Jorge Gonzalez. And I don't expect complacency to be a problem here, as this is a derby, and a win here is very important for the standings.

For Guarani, things are also looking pretty good, being 3rd in the table, 4 points behind the leaders. But with their early participation in the Copa Sudamericana began the problems, and with a decisive match next week in Uruguay, they decided to give priority to the Internationl game, therefore they will rest some regulars for tonight. To be precise, it is expected that at least 8 regulars will left behind, in order to keep them fresh for the clash with River. Surely this must be a huge blow for them, making Libertad's victory pretty sure, as I doubt Guarani's reserves can rise to the Gumarelo standards. GL!

Libertad (-0.75) @ 1.90, Sbobet, 5/10

Result: 2-0, WON