Libertad - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

There should be no debate over who is superior in class here, as Libertad has better individual players than San Luis, and also performs better as a team. But what is important here is motivation. Libertad has comfortably won the group, after a great run of results, but things are not done for them yet. With 3 more points tonight, they will have 14, and they will pretty much secure second place in the aggregate tables of the group winners, thus assuring they would play one of the weaker teams that finished as runner-ups. And just to show how serious they are, they rested some of the regulars in the league, in order to keep them fresh for this final match of the group. They might be in poor form in the league, without a win for 4 matches, but 2 of them were against Guarani and Nacional, and those matches are never easy to win, while in the other 2 there were some rotations. San Luis is in an even worse form, and they've managed to win only a single game from the last 14 they played, and despite still having chances to qualify, I don't see them capable of doing it, as they need to win in Paraguay, and also San Martin not to win. They are also missing a few important players, and if we add that to their trip from Mexico, and also the fact that they used the regulars in the weekend, I think we have a clear winner in Libertad. Small stakes though. GL!

Libertad (-0.5 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Once Caldas - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

The Mexican teams are playing away from home, and are looking like solid fade material. San Luis is the first on the list. They are on an awful run of 8 games without a win, and this trip in Colombia should be a lot harder than any other match they have played recently. Even if the altitude factor from Manizales shouldn't be much of a problem for San Luis (as they also play at higher altitude), the trip could be exhausting, having to travel more than 4000 km to Colombia. And they have just played on Saturday evening, so with just 3 days to recover and to make such a long trip, they could find themselves in a fatigue problem. Meanwhile, Once Caldas looks to be in great form, not losing any of their last 5 games (including the first leg match in San Luis Potosi). In their last league match, they have won 5-1 against Deportes Quindio, with a sublime Dayro Moreno who scored a hat-trick. And their offense is generally working well, Moreno, Renteria and Carbonero working well together. And with Once Caldas being a real powerhouse when playing at home, overwhelming their opponents with offensive football, I can't see past an easy win for them. Higher stakes than usual for this match, as it looks like a lock. GL!

Once Caldas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.88, 6/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

San Luis - Once Caldas

Copa Libertadores

Another over bet that I like. San Luis is in poor form, having not won for 5 consecutive matches, and are in poor positions both in the league and in Libertadores, although in the international Cup they are slightly worse, with 2 loses, making tonight's clash crucial for them. A loss, and they're out, so an offensive formation is expected, with Arroyo and Wilmer Aguirre (top scorer of Clausura) in the attack. San Luis can play some nice football at times, but they can also be very retarded, that's why they are alternating goal-fests with boring 0-0 matches. Once Caldas looks much better, although they also desperately need a win in Mexico, after losing they're opener at home against San Martin, and only drawing with Libertad. They are also preparing a super-offensive team, with 3 forwards: the well-known Wason Renteria (made his debut for Once last weekend, scoring 2 goals), the team/league top scorer Dayro Moreno, and the young and talented Carlos Carbonero (who also scored during the weekend). So, with both teams facing an abrupt end of the competition, and with both of them trying to secure some points that allows them to keep hoping, I think we're in for some goals again. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 1-1, VOID