Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira

Colombia, Liga Postobon

I just said to myself that I will stop taking any handicap bigger than -1, but this time I'll make an exception, as this match looks just too good to skip (and I hope it will be the only exception). Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira look like 2 teams from totally different dimensions. Once is last year's champion, and are playing great this season also. They might feel frustrated for losing the 3 points on Tuesday against San Luis from Mexico (the Mexicans equalized in the 94th minute, after a very confusing play), but they will most probably put everything behind them, and focus on this Clasico. And the coach will throw the best he's got in this match, not resting anyone, despite a trip to Paraguay planned next week, and in attack we will see again the magic-trio: Dayro Moreno, Wason Renteria and Carbonero, strikers that are very feared by all the teams in Colombia. Meanwhile, Deportivo Pereira is in the worst form of it's history, as an entire year has passed since they last won a match, facing a run of 32-matches without a single victory. Last game, they lost 0-4 away at Cucuta, and today they will face the commanding leaders, so I doubt they will stand any chances of ending their run. Odds on this handicap have been raising steadily, and that is why I finally decided to take it, as now there actually is some value on the odds. GL!

Once Caldas (-1.5 AH) @ 2.22, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Once Caldas - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

The Mexican teams are playing away from home, and are looking like solid fade material. San Luis is the first on the list. They are on an awful run of 8 games without a win, and this trip in Colombia should be a lot harder than any other match they have played recently. Even if the altitude factor from Manizales shouldn't be much of a problem for San Luis (as they also play at higher altitude), the trip could be exhausting, having to travel more than 4000 km to Colombia. And they have just played on Saturday evening, so with just 3 days to recover and to make such a long trip, they could find themselves in a fatigue problem. Meanwhile, Once Caldas looks to be in great form, not losing any of their last 5 games (including the first leg match in San Luis Potosi). In their last league match, they have won 5-1 against Deportes Quindio, with a sublime Dayro Moreno who scored a hat-trick. And their offense is generally working well, Moreno, Renteria and Carbonero working well together. And with Once Caldas being a real powerhouse when playing at home, overwhelming their opponents with offensive football, I can't see past an easy win for them. Higher stakes than usual for this match, as it looks like a lock. GL!

Once Caldas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.88, 6/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

San Luis - Once Caldas

Copa Libertadores

Another over bet that I like. San Luis is in poor form, having not won for 5 consecutive matches, and are in poor positions both in the league and in Libertadores, although in the international Cup they are slightly worse, with 2 loses, making tonight's clash crucial for them. A loss, and they're out, so an offensive formation is expected, with Arroyo and Wilmer Aguirre (top scorer of Clausura) in the attack. San Luis can play some nice football at times, but they can also be very retarded, that's why they are alternating goal-fests with boring 0-0 matches. Once Caldas looks much better, although they also desperately need a win in Mexico, after losing they're opener at home against San Martin, and only drawing with Libertad. They are also preparing a super-offensive team, with 3 forwards: the well-known Wason Renteria (made his debut for Once last weekend, scoring 2 goals), the team/league top scorer Dayro Moreno, and the young and talented Carlos Carbonero (who also scored during the weekend). So, with both teams facing an abrupt end of the competition, and with both of them trying to secure some points that allows them to keep hoping, I think we're in for some goals again. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Millonarios - Once Caldas

Colombia Primera A, Apertura

I see some nice value on this match. Once Caldas are the reigning champions of the Colombian Primera Division, while Millonarios are just an average team, whose usual objective is to finish in the mid-side of the standings. This season, their objectives are not different, as they are aiming for the same things as usual. Odds started raising on the champions because of their Libertadores commitment, where they played on Wednesday at home against Universidad San Martin (and were trashed 0-3), and where they will play again next week, also at home, against Libertad from Paraguay. But, they will probably not rest anyone tonight, as all the players that played during the mid-week are in the squad for this clash, and I can't see more than 2-3 changes, as they want a win here, in order to clear their image after the disastrous start of the Copa Libertadores. And as we have seen in their recent matches against Millonarios, they don't even have to be at their best to win. Millonarios have never beat them when playing at home, and in the last 9 years, they have only won twice in 18 matches. So to have Once Caldas set as underdog, against a team that usually poses little resistance against them, should be a nice opportunity. GL!

Once Caldas DNB @ 2.15, 4/10

Result: 0-2, WON

Cucuta Deportivo - Once Caldas

Colombia Liga Postobon, Play-off

Odds dropped massively on home win, so there's surely no more value here. And even with some higher odds, this could have been tricky... both teams are playing for nothing, but morale should be clearly better in the Once Caldas camp, as they will play the national final, while Cucuta practically ended their season already, without anything major happening for them. And besides that, Once Caldas has the best squad in the league, so it won't be so easy to beat them, even if they are playing with their secondary players (because they are, as they have to play the finals next week). What I do expect in this game, are goals. As I said, Once's players that will start today's game are still at least decent players, and they can surely score here. Meanwhile, Cucuta will probably use their strongest line-up, in order to finish the season on a high note, and give the fans a last win on their stadium, against the probable champions. Without any pressure on either team, they will probably just focus on playing nice, and giving the fans something to cheer about, and the same should apply for Once Caldas. We should see some goals here, but small stakes, as you can't really trust Colombians. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON