Cesar Vallejo - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores, Preliminary Round

This will be the last match of the preliminary round of the Copa Libertadores, and only after it will be over will we know how all the groups will look like. And despite some strange odds movements, I still see Tolima as the favorites here. They are a solid team (traditionally, Colombian teams are better than Peruvian ones) and should have plenty of international experience, unlike Cesar Vallejo, who are making their international debut. In the first round, Tolima dominated the match, had control of the ball and created several chances to score. However, some heroic defending from Cesar Vallejo's defenders and goalkeeper limited the score to just 1-0 for the Colombians. Now it should be a different match, as the Peruvians need to attack and try to score. Tolima also have quite a solid defense, so we should be on the lookout for some deadly counter attacks. Quality and experience are on the visitors side, and with the current odds we should have a good bet here. GL!

Tolima DNB @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID

Defensor Sporting - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2013, Preliminary Round

So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.

Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Envigado - Union Comercio

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Don't have as much confidence in this bet as I had yesterday with Millonarios, but it should still be a solid bet. The Peruvian teams are near the bottom of the standings when we talk about South American club football, and they usually struggle even when it comes to playing against Ecuadorian or Paraguayan teams. And even though from time to time, the big guns (Universitario, Alianza Lima, etc) manage to get some results, the smaller teams usually fail miserably. And this should be the case with Union Comercio. They won promotion to the 2011 Primera Division for the first time in their short history, and even though they managed a very good campaign, I still rate them as a small team. And this was visible in the first leg as well... while Envigado isn't a great team even by Colombian standards, they managed to keep a 0-0 draw in Peru, in a pretty dull affair. And while Comercio are poor travelers in Peru (so I expect an even lower level outside of the country), Envigado is usually a strong home team in Colombia, losing only 1 match in the last 8 played at home in the league. Don't expect too much entertainment, but expect the home team to win and qualify. Small stakes only. GL!

Envigado (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Libertad Asuncion - El Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012

Libertad lost in the first leg, by a narrow 0-1, so I was expecting a -0.75 to bank on it, but unfortunately, the bookies only offer -1 at some pretty low odds. So this definitely isn't a value bet, but still, it's a bet that should be a winner (or at least not a loser). The first match was considered to be an equal affair, and indeed it was. El Nacional won, but it really could have gone either way, with Libertad creating several chances, but failing to score any of them. So, with the background set, we come to the second leg, which I expect to be a bit different. The Paraguayans will surely take on a more offensive approach, as they are trailing by one goal, while the Ecuador side already expressed their plans to use a more defensive minded strategy. What will be the deciding factor then? First of all, Libertad has an overall better team than the Ecuadorians, and it is a more solid team, with more international experience. Then, El Nacional won't have the altitude advantage as in the first leg, and that also drops their chances for this match. Finally, Libertad is a very tough team to beat when playing at home, and teams like LDU Quito, Sao Paulo and Fluminense stand proof for that. They should qualify, but even if they don't, a win shouldn't be under question. Small stakes only, because of the lack of value of this bet. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

Real Potosi - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012

I'm expecting quite a few goals tonight in Potosi. Flamengo is a team more than capable of scoring one, maybe even more goals, but are also more than capable of conceding. As a proof, in the last season of the Brazilian Serie A they had the second best attack, with 59 goals scored, but also one of the worst defense from the top 10 teams. So, if they can score so easily against other Brazilian teams, I don't see why they couldn't do it against a Bolivian team, that is weaker in defense. Real Potosi will surely try to take advantage from the high altitude, and will try to punish the Brazilian team in order for them to stand a chance in the return leg. They usually play offensive football, and today we shouldn't see a change, as a draw leaves them with practically no chance to qualify. Flamengo have prepared very well for this match, sending their full squad to Bolivia since more than a week, although they stayed in Sucre, where there is no altitude, so they should feel some heavy legs anyway. Ronaldinho and Deivid are expected to start as the main offensive weapons of the Brazilians, so the goals should come. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.89, 5/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Union Espanola - UANL Tigres

Copa Libertadores 2012

The Mexicans aren't putting much effort into Copa Libertadores (probably because of the long distances they'll have to travel and because of the squad not being deep enough for both competitions), therefore their list with the registered players is a pretty weak one. A lot of first team players have been left out, and from the players considered 'stars' only Hector Mancilla and Manuel Viniegra are on the Libertadores list. However, for Wednesday's match, not even they will play, as they have been left behind in Mexico to rest, as well as Enrique Palos and Juninho. Moreover, 3 of their players are injured, while 4 others (Hugo Ayala, Carlos Salcido, Israel Jimenez and Jorge Torres Nilo) are with the national team. So a very weak, young and unexperienced squad of Tigres will travel to Chile. Union Espanola made a decent local tournament in 2011, and even though they have lost 3 important players, they have also strengthend the team with several players, that should be at least on the level with the ones that left. Still, most of their players have remained with the team, so expect a more solid and consistent Chilean team, in comparison with Tigres. Two-legs for this round, so I'm counting on a determined performance at home, to give them some margin for error in the second-leg. GL!

Union Espanola (-0.5 AH) @ 1.95, 5/10

Result: 1-0, WON

El Nacional - Libertad Asuncion

Copa Libertadores 2012

El Nacional was the surprise package in the Ecuadorian Serie A last season, pulling off a great season, and finally taking the last Libertadores spot, after a play-off with 3rd placed LDU, taking advantage of the Albos packed schedule and player rotations, due to their Sudamericana final. However, their merit still exists, and now they have high hopes of qualifying for the main stage of Copa Libertadores, especially since they have kept most of their players from last year, trying to build on that. The problem with them is that the players are very young, and are lacking international experience, so they might find that a solid team from Paraguay is too much for them. Young players have a lot of energy, and will to perform, but they might also lose their head fast if put under pressure. Also, statistics are against them: last time they played Libertadores was the Preliminary round in 2009, when they were knocked-out by Nacional of Paraguay, while in their mutual matches with Libertad (2005 and 2006) they made 2 draws and lost the other 2. Libertad is a very solid team, with a lot of experience on this stage, having won their Libertadores groups for the last 3 years, also being undefeated in the group stage in the last 2 years. They have also kept most of their players from last season, so we will probably see a well built team, with a good and comfortable system. They have previously pulled of good results against better teams than them, so El Nacional shouldn't scare them. The only real advantage the Ecuadorians might have is the high altitude, but Libertad also showed they can handle it (last match played in Quito was last year in Sudamericana, against LDU, and they made a very good match, despite losing unluckily in the 90th minute). They can also do some serious damage on the counter-attack (I'm expecting El Nacional to try and take control of the match), so with this handicap line I'm willing to try a small bet. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Arsenal de Sarandi - Sport Huancayo

Copa Libertadores 2012

The new edition of the Copa Libertadores will take off this week with it's preliminary round, so let's see what we have on the menu. First match of this round will see Sport Huancayo travelling to Arsenal de Sarandi. The Peruvians made a great domestic campaign last year, finishing on a surprisingly 3rd place, which gives them the chance to fight for a group-stage qualification. The high altitude in Huancayo, and a solid-offensive system helped them a lot on their way, but for the first leg against Arsenal, they won't be able to count on any of that. The directors made the bad choice of letting some of their best players go, and the transfers of midfielder Hilden Salas and of the attacking duo Avila and Sotil are sure to provide a huge blow (besides the other absent players - they changed close to half of the team). Their replacements are far from their level, and I doubt 'old-man' Ibarra (39 years old) or Baylon (previously in Sport Boys) will make an impact. They also come into this match without much match practice, as they only played a single friendly match, lost 0-3 against Leon de Huanuco. Also worth mentioning is the historical spanking Huancayo received in 2010, 0-9 at Defensor Sporting of Uruguay, in the Copa Sudamericana. Meanwhile, Arsenal only lost goalscorer Obolo, but signed Jorge Cordoba in his place (already played and scored for River and Gimnasia, so he should adapt quite well). Striker Leguizamon is suspended for this match, but he should be well replaced by Zelaya. Arsenal is not a spectacular team, but is efficient, and they are rightly favorites for this match. The handicap is a bit high, and the odds also dropped since the market opened, but I still believe it is a good bet, definitely worthy of some small stakes. GL!

Arsenal (-1.5 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Tempete FC - Monarcas Morelia

CONCACAF Champions League

Morelia have resolved the qualification problem since last week, with a 5-0 trashing of the Haitians, so now it will be just a formality. The coach already said he will use an alternative squad (meaning that none of the players that performed in the first 3 matches will be on the pitch today), as there is no use in risking an injury or suspension in what should be a comfortable match. But even so, the difference in quality between the Mexican reserves and the Haitian regulars should still be sky high, and Morelia can still win by a couple of goals. I wouldn't have even looked at this game under this circumstances, and at this price/line if Morelia was playing away from home, but here is the interesting thing: this match will be played on Estadio Morelo, Monarcas's home stadium, where they recorded the 5-0 last week. This measure comes as Tempete's stadium still hasn't been fully reconstructed following the 2010 Haitian eartquake, so CONCACAF has allowed them to play as hosts on Morelia's stadium. I'll lower the stakes for this match, as after a 5-0 in the first leg, the Mexican players can even sleep on the pitch and still qualify, but if they play at least at 50% of their capacity, they should still win it comfortably. GL!

Monarcas (-2.25 AH) @ 1.67, 4/10

Result: 0-2, HALF LOST

Monarcas Morelia - Tempete FC

CONCACAF Champions League

This is the clearest match from all of the Preliminary round. Tempete is a team from Haiti, and is the poorest from this competition, along Alpha United. They qualified for the Champions League by finishing second in the CFU Club Championship, but even there, they did not impress. They needed penalties in the second round to go past Caledonia from T&T, moved to the final after another penalty shoot-out in the semi-final against Defence Force (also from T&T), and were beaten in the final by the Puerto Rico Islanders, 1-3 after extra-time. Now let's put them against Monarcas Morelia, a team that should be 3 or 4 classes above any team from the Carribean zone, and we should have a real trashing here. Haitians are a no match for Mexicans, under any circumstances, and this match should be no different. Monarcas should win by a minimum of 5-0, because that represents the quality gap, and from there they can score just for the fun. GL!

Monarcas (-2 AH) @ 1.58, 8/10

Result: 5-0, WON

Santos Laguna - Olimpia

CONCACAF Champions League

One thing is certain in this Champions League: the Mexicans bring profit, so we'll back both teams from this country in the Preliminary round. Herediano clearly showed last night the huge difference in quality between some of the teams, as they beat a team from Guyana 8-0. This probably won't be the case in this match, as Olimpia is one of the best non-Mexican teams from the competition, but still, they should be 2 classes below any Mexican team, including Santos Laguna. However, Olimpia are rather poor travelers, and aren't in such a great form as to put any problems to Santos in this first leg. Santos knows they will have a tough away match, so they should focus on getting as big an advantage as possible in this match, so they can take it easy in Honduras next week. And they certainly have the power to do so, especially after a confident performance in the league, where they've beaten Pachuca 4-1 last weekend. The handicap isn't very big for this match, and I think that a 2-0 win should be a minimum here, but of course, the score could get even bigger, depending on how good Santos feels on the pitch. GL!

Santos (-1.25 AH) @ 1.67, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Herediano - Alpha United

CONCACAF Champions League

The 2011/2012 CONCACAF Champions League will start tonight with it's Preliminary Round, and it will mark an important event for both teams involved in this match. For Herediano, it will be their return to the highest level of football in CONCACAF, while Alpha United will be making the first appearance of a team from Guyana in the Champions League. So of course, both teams want to perform at their best. But there should a clear difference in quality between them. Alpha managed to qualify after finishing third in the CFU Club Championship, where they had alternating performances. They managed to hold Puerto Rico Islanders (big favorites) to a draw (lost in ET, in the semi-finals), as well as Defence Force in the third place match. But, they were quite lucky in both matches, as they could have easily lost both of them. Herediano won't be playing at their home stadium, but on the new Estadio Nacional, and this will be the first ever match played on it. They have managed to keep most of their squad with which they won Torneo Invierno and reached the semi-finals of Torneo Verano. Herediano also lost only 1 match as hosts in the entire season, and even if that doesn't count for too much here, it will help with their confidence, especially since Alpha are rather poor travelers when going outside their country. They also came to Costa Rica in several groups, and will only have 1 day to prepare for this match with all their players. Small stakes, as form is still questionable for Herediano, but quality should prevail. GL!

Herediano (-1.5 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10

Result: 8-0, WON