Millonarios - Palmeiras

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Second leg of Copa Sudamericana eight-finals will take place this week, and there should be some very interesting matches. First stop will be in Colombia, where Millonarios will try to take revenge on Palmeiras for the 1-3 loss in the first leg. I did mention some squad problems for the Brazilians in the first leg, and pretty much nothing has changed since then. They are still deeply involved in the relegation battle, and with a lot of tired players, they will again have to rest several pairs of legs. For example, it is almost certain that striker Barcos (23/11), defender Mauricio Ramos (20/0) and midfielder Marcos Assuncao (15/2) won't take part in this match, as they didn't make the trip to Colombia. Furthermore, midfielders Joao Vitor (17/0) and Jorge Valdivia (14/0) are still injured, same as forward Maikon Leite (5/1). Others might be rested as well. Millonarios have rested their regulars on Sunday, so they should have all the players fit to play. The high altitude from Bogota (2600 meters above sea level) should also give them a big advantage, and I expect to see a much more different match from the first leg. If they play well, Millonarios might even qualify to the next round, but it will be tough... however, a home win should come in much easier. Small stakes, because odds already dropped a lot. GL!

Millonarios (-0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Palmeiras - Millonarios

Copa Sudamericana 2012

For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!

Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST

Palmeiras - Atletico Mineiro

Copa Sudamericana

Odds have gone down on this one, so there isn't probably any value left, but this bet still looks good and very likely to happen. Palmeiras wants this Cup, as it could be their easiest way to next year's Copa Libertadores, since in the league they are 5 points behind the last place that qualifies them, and they appear to sacrifice that, since they used a reserves team last weekend, and have still managed to win the game. So, all the regulars should be fit tonight, a thing that can't be said about Atletico Mineiro. They have much bigger problems, as the fight to avoid relegation will go all the way to the wire. And their priority is of course the league, where they are playing full strength, unlike in the Copa Sudamericana, where for this match they will rest all of their regulars, and play with a fully B squad. That surely gives Palmeiras a huge advantage, but there is also another interesting theory here. Next week, this match will see a repeat, but this time in the league, and since Mineiro is practically gifting the win in Sudamericana, Palmeiras could have the chance to return the favor, and gift them some vital points in the relegation battle. In the last 3 meetings that were played in Sao Paulo, Palmeiras won 2 with the same score of 3-1, and even if Mineiro field reserves tonight, I doubt we'll see a trashing. 2-0 score looks the most probable, so I'm expecting an easy cover of the handicap. GL!

Palmeiras (-1 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON