Junior Barranquilla - Jaguares Chiapas

Copa Libertadores

Really don't understand the bookies obsession with Jaguares, because, as how I see it, the odds on Junior are incredibly high, as I wouldn't have made them more than 1.50 favorites. First of all, we have to mention Jaguares's form, which at least in the local league has been dreadful recently. In Libertadores they had a relatively easy group, but even so, in their away games they haven't managed to snatch a single point, losing both in Guayaquil against Emelec, as well as in Bolivia against second division team Jorge Wilstermann. And now they are again playing away, at a team that looked quite impressive in the group stage, winning 4 out of 6 games, only losing in Brazil and drawing at home with Leon in the last round, when they were already qualified and assured of finishing on top of the group. Even in the first leg, Junior was the better team, and the Mexicans can consider themselves lucky to have finished with a draw, but I certainly don't expect that to be the same case in Colombia. Of course, Junior can qualify even with a 0-0, but that's not really how they play, and I see them looking for the win early on, as they certainly have the advantage in quality to do so. And with Jaguares lookin hopeless lately, especially as visitors, they should hope for too much from this match. GL!

Junior (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 3-3, LOST

Jaguares Chiapas - Junior Barranquilla

Copa Libertadores

Jaguares Chiapas is one strange team. Last place in the standings in the Mexican league with one round to go, lost, only one win in their last 8 league matches, but still they managed to qualify from their Libertadores group, mainly because Emelec are idiots and couldn't win in Bolivia. Because Jaguares won all of their home matches, but lost all of their away ones, including a 1-2 loss in Bolivia, against second division team Jorge Wilstermann, a tea, which they've barely beaten in the first round, 2-0 following some late goals. So why are they such favorites against a strong Colombian team (that managed to win their group with Gremio), is beyong my comprehension. Junior is obviously the much better team (in fact, I see Jaguares as the poorest team to reach this stage), and indeed, playing away from home in Mexico can't be an easy job, no matter how poor Jaguares are. But, I expected the odds to be more balanced, maybe even with Junior set as small favorites, so in this case, I see some very nice value on the Colombians. +0.75 is close to a gift in my opinion, as it gives us a 'safe zone' even in case of an unexpected Mexican victory, but I honestly don't see this happening. Junior should win this match, but a draw won't be that bad either, so this handicap is a must-take. GL!

Junior (+0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Oriente Petrolero - Junior Barranquilla

Copa Libertadores

I was surprised when I saw the odds for this match. First thought was to skip the entire round of Copa Libertadores, but now I can't help it not to bet on this match. Besides the opposed results that Oriente and Junior have recorded, they have also showed different styles of play, and determination. First of all, Junior have 6 points from 2  matches, winning in Huanuco and beating Gremio at home, both with the same score of 2-1. Solid display of football by the Colombians, who are very close of sealing their qualification to the next round. Meanwhile, Oriente Petrolero has played against the same 2 teams, losing both matches. Despite battling hard, and even being dangerous at times, they have succumbed to a 0-3 defeat at Gremio, followed by a narrow 0-1 loss in Huanuco. There, the Peruvians made a simple match, scoring and then preserving the result. And despite again trying to be dangerous, Oriente again failed to put enough pressure on the goal, showing they can be quite poor against a well organized defense. And their form has been poor overall, also losing their last 2 league matches. No altitude advantage for them, as Santa Cruz is just around 400 meters above the sea level. And with Junior looking good and being quite solid (even in the altitude of Huanuco), I don't really see them losing in Bolivia. GL!

Junior DNB @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 1-2, WON