Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!
LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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Nov 25, 2013
Nov 14, 2013
Jordan - Uruguay
World Cup 2014, Play-off
Not enough time for a proper analysis, but the difference in quality is obviously too high in Uruguay's favor. It's not an easy task playing in Asian countries, but when you have the number of stars that Uruguay has (Godin, Caceres, Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Forlan, Suarez and Cavani), things will be much easier. Nothing special about Jordan, and a 2-0 win for the South Americans is the minimum that I can see. GL!
Uruguay (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-5, WON
Not enough time for a proper analysis, but the difference in quality is obviously too high in Uruguay's favor. It's not an easy task playing in Asian countries, but when you have the number of stars that Uruguay has (Godin, Caceres, Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Forlan, Suarez and Cavani), things will be much easier. Nothing special about Jordan, and a 2-0 win for the South Americans is the minimum that I can see. GL!
Uruguay (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-5, WON
Nov 10, 2013
Macara - Independiente
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Deportivo Cuenca - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Cienciano - Juan Aurich
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
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