Boca Juniors - Zamora

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Boca has already qualified from this group, therefore they are switching their immediate focus on the local league, where they are the Clausura leaders, although tied on points with Newell's, and with Velez and Arsenal close by. That's why coach Falcioni will make a massive rotation in the team, leaving only 2 regulars for this match: defender Insaurralde and play maker Riquelme (this may seem as bad news, as Riquelme can have some genius-moments, but from what I've seen, he usually slows down the play, which will suit our bet). Other than that, a lot of reserves, players that haven't seen much action, especially all together at once, so game relations should suffer. Also, one of the forwards (Blandi) didn't play a single full match this season for Boca, and obviously he doesn't have a single goal scored. Now, this match isn't exactly without meaning, as Boca could win the group with 3 points today (provided that Fluminense don't win their match), thus assuring an easier opponent in the next stage. However, I don't think they'll push too much for the trashing, especially with an alternative team, and even a narrow win will be good for them. Zamora will most likely defend with 10 men, as they usually do, so I can't count on them to score. They have never received more than 3 goals in a match this season (just 3 against Arsenal, plus 1 goal/match in the rest except the 0-0 draw with Boca), and with the Argentinians not expected to press too much, this bet looks very nice. GL!

under 3 goals @ 2.06, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Zamora - Arsenal Sarandi

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Both teams are 99% out of the competition, although they still have some theoretical chances (but it all depends on Boca, and I doubt they won't beat Zamora at home in the last round). So there will probably be little motivation here, especially for Arsenal. Apparently, they favor the league more, that's why they will have to do without several players that are normally considered regulars. Burdisso (31/5), Leguizamon (17/6), Lopez (26/2), Ortiz (22/4), Carbonero (13/1) and Zelaya (20/6) have been left behind in Argentina, while Nervo (21/0) is doubtful. So they'll go into this match with a weakend squad, and with little to none motivation. Zamora, on the other hand, should still have some motivation, for several reasons. The small teams are usually extra-motivated when playing against high-profile Argentinian or Brazilian teams, so even though they are practically out, I still think they will fight hard for at least a point here. They'll defend with 10 men probably, as they usually do, and this time they could do it well, as Arsenal will probably suffer in offense, and from the lack of motivation. Only small stakes here, as Zamora is still a very poor team, and in poor form (lost all of their last 6 matches), but they should have some chances here. GL!

Zamora (+0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Zamora - Fluminense

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

There is no doubt who is the better team here. Fluminense has the better players (much better, some of them), and are by far a more solid team than the Venezuelans, therefore they are rightly set as favorites (odds are too low anyway, but still, they are indeed big favorites). But Zamora showed many times that they're not such an easy nut to crack. Besides the 0-3 defeat at Arsenal, they showed good defending skills (if defending with 10 men can be called 'skill'), holding Boca to a 0-0 draw, and losing by just 0-1 in Brazil. They know they have no chances to qualify from this group, but for them, any point against their much ilustrious oponents is golden, so I'm expecting them to use the same tactics as before, with 10 men in front of their own goal (attacking would be suicidal, everybody knows that). And Fluminense are by no chance a team that likes to trash their opponents. They will most likely take their time trying to break an over-crowded defense, and a win by the limit will work just perfect for them. Can't see something more than a 2-0 win for the Brazilians, so the under is definitely worth a shot. GL!

under 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON