Peru Primera Divsion, Descentralizado
This should be a match that promises a lot, as we will see in action two
of the most offensive teams in the league. League leaders Sporting
Cristal seem to be in a league of their own, as they have the best
attack so far, with 10 goals scored more than any other team. And they
are the strongest when they play at home, where they scored 23 goals.
They are still undefeated at home, and they also have a positive record
when it comes to under/over, with 8 of their last 10 games ending with
at least 3
goals. On the other side of the field, we will have a surprising Sport
Huancayo, who have been performing above expectations and find
themselves on 4th place, with 9 points snatched in away games (a very
good record for a traditional 'home' team). And I'm confident that we
should be seeing some goals here, as Huancayo have the second best
offense in the league, with 24 goals scored, but also one of the fragile
defenses, with 23 conceded (only 3 teams have a worse record). Huancayo
have failed to score in only 2 games so far. Cristal will be at full
strength, without any absences of injuries, and they will also repeat
the line-up that trashed San Martin last week by 3-0. Goals should be
plenty. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
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May 26, 2013
Racing - Liverpool
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Another interesting match in Uruguay, where Racing will be facing Liverpool. The hosts still have a remote chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, but with low chances of that happening, they will probably play for their second pressing issue: saving the team from relegation. The chances of that happening are also low (Progreso needs to win both remaining games, while Racing needs to lose them), but I'm expecting them to go out and clinch it today.So even if it won't be much, there is still something to play for here. Meanwhile, in Liverpool's camp, things are not even close to being calm or good. They don't have any pressing needs right now, as they are safe from relegation and without any chances of getting to a continental competition. But instead of having a quiet end of the season, the fans are out to get coach Muller's head. Besides the very poor results (only 2 wins in the last 10 games, and just 3 wins throughout the competition), team-captain and fan-favorite Macchi has been left out of the team, due to a coach decision. The directors are backing the coach, so the fans are pretty much against the entire management of the team, and have repeatedly protested against them. Word is, even some players are against the coach, and would like to see him go. So without results, amidst an internal tempest and without anything at stake, Racing should take the points here, especially since they've recorded quite some nice results recently: draws at Nacional and El Tanque, and an amazing victory against Penarol, coming from 0-1 down to win it 2-1. GL!
Racing (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Another interesting match in Uruguay, where Racing will be facing Liverpool. The hosts still have a remote chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, but with low chances of that happening, they will probably play for their second pressing issue: saving the team from relegation. The chances of that happening are also low (Progreso needs to win both remaining games, while Racing needs to lose them), but I'm expecting them to go out and clinch it today.So even if it won't be much, there is still something to play for here. Meanwhile, in Liverpool's camp, things are not even close to being calm or good. They don't have any pressing needs right now, as they are safe from relegation and without any chances of getting to a continental competition. But instead of having a quiet end of the season, the fans are out to get coach Muller's head. Besides the very poor results (only 2 wins in the last 10 games, and just 3 wins throughout the competition), team-captain and fan-favorite Macchi has been left out of the team, due to a coach decision. The directors are backing the coach, so the fans are pretty much against the entire management of the team, and have repeatedly protested against them. Word is, even some players are against the coach, and would like to see him go. So without results, amidst an internal tempest and without anything at stake, Racing should take the points here, especially since they've recorded quite some nice results recently: draws at Nacional and El Tanque, and an amazing victory against Penarol, coming from 0-1 down to win it 2-1. GL!
Racing (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
May 25, 2013
Fenix - Danubio
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Fenix is playing on two fronts here, with two different objectives in mind. First of all, they need to assure their position in the Primera Division, as they are just 8 points ahead of the relegation zone (and Progreso will double up the remaining points, so there are still chances for Fenix to relegate). Then, they will also want to take another step towards a ticket for Copa Sudamericana, where they are just 1 point behind El Tanque Sisley. Danubio plays for nothing, as they are safe from relegation, and they also have minimal chances of going to a continental competition. They do have some slight chances of winning the Clausura, but with 5 points behind the leaders, and with 2 other teams between them, they will have to be realistic and call it a day. So I'm expecting Danubio to play without real motivation, wherein Fenix will be giving it they're all to achieve their objectives. They are in good form, with 3 victories in their last 5 games (lost only to league leaders Defensor), and are a strong team to play against, especially on their home ground (lost only one game, against Racing). Odds went up quite a bit since the market opened (probably because most people are backing Danubio for their title race), but with some poor recent performances, I find it hard to trust them. The available lines are looking very good, and Fenix gets my vote here.
Fenix DNB @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
Fenix is playing on two fronts here, with two different objectives in mind. First of all, they need to assure their position in the Primera Division, as they are just 8 points ahead of the relegation zone (and Progreso will double up the remaining points, so there are still chances for Fenix to relegate). Then, they will also want to take another step towards a ticket for Copa Sudamericana, where they are just 1 point behind El Tanque Sisley. Danubio plays for nothing, as they are safe from relegation, and they also have minimal chances of going to a continental competition. They do have some slight chances of winning the Clausura, but with 5 points behind the leaders, and with 2 other teams between them, they will have to be realistic and call it a day. So I'm expecting Danubio to play without real motivation, wherein Fenix will be giving it they're all to achieve their objectives. They are in good form, with 3 victories in their last 5 games (lost only to league leaders Defensor), and are a strong team to play against, especially on their home ground (lost only one game, against Racing). Odds went up quite a bit since the market opened (probably because most people are backing Danubio for their title race), but with some poor recent performances, I find it hard to trust them. The available lines are looking very good, and Fenix gets my vote here.
Fenix DNB @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
River Plate - Central Espanol
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
With just 2 rounds remaining in the Uruguayan league, things are pretty much clear, and everyone knows what they have to do. One such game is River against Central Espanol, where both teams need to win, but for totally different reasons. River needs the 3 points to tie Defensor at the top of the Clausura table, and put some pressure on them (they play on Sunday), while Central Espanol needs a miracle, as they need the 3 points here and in the last round, while they're also hoping for a couple of slip-ups from Fenix and Progreso, in order to continue in the Primera Division. And this will be very hard for them, as they have been showing some very poor football so far, and they are playing against a team who fights for the title. River made an excellent campaign so far, and will repeat the team that drew last week with Defensor. No important absences for them, as they look set to continue their good form, as they won 7 out of 13 games in the Clausura (second-best behind Defensor), where they also have the best offense, with 21goals scored. They have a lot to play for, as I'm sure they won't be giving up the fight so easily, and I'm confident in an easy win here. GL!
River (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON
With just 2 rounds remaining in the Uruguayan league, things are pretty much clear, and everyone knows what they have to do. One such game is River against Central Espanol, where both teams need to win, but for totally different reasons. River needs the 3 points to tie Defensor at the top of the Clausura table, and put some pressure on them (they play on Sunday), while Central Espanol needs a miracle, as they need the 3 points here and in the last round, while they're also hoping for a couple of slip-ups from Fenix and Progreso, in order to continue in the Primera Division. And this will be very hard for them, as they have been showing some very poor football so far, and they are playing against a team who fights for the title. River made an excellent campaign so far, and will repeat the team that drew last week with Defensor. No important absences for them, as they look set to continue their good form, as they won 7 out of 13 games in the Clausura (second-best behind Defensor), where they also have the best offense, with 21goals scored. They have a lot to play for, as I'm sure they won't be giving up the fight so easily, and I'm confident in an easy win here. GL!
River (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON
May 24, 2013
Barcelona - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
The opening odds were suggesting that Barcelona should have a rather easy match here, and only the margin of their victory is in doubt. But I disagree with that, and I think that these odds are just an overreaction after Barcelona's win against Emelec, and due to Deportivo Quito's internal problems and their threats of not traveling for the game. But this crisis is close to a solution, as Deportivo's players have received some of the postponed payments. And besides, these issues have been ever present for at least 3 months, and this never stopped them from taking on each game with professionalism (they have lost a single game this season). Full team is expected for Deportivo Quito, with the only absent being midfielder Luis Romero (14/1). Otherwise, all the big names are set to start, including striker Nieto (13 goals in 14 games) and winger Colon (14/8). Same story with Barcelona, as they will also have a full squad at their disposal, with the exception of midfielder Matias Oyola (14/1). They may have improved lately in the league, but I'm still not convinced that they will be able to fight at the top. And besides, Deportivo is traditionally a team that poses a lot of problems: in the last 15 direct games played in Guayaquil, Barcelona did manage to win the majority, but only 3 of them have been by more than a one-goal advantage. And if we look at the teams now, Deportivo looks better. I'd go for a draw here, but the handicap is the safer solution. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
The opening odds were suggesting that Barcelona should have a rather easy match here, and only the margin of their victory is in doubt. But I disagree with that, and I think that these odds are just an overreaction after Barcelona's win against Emelec, and due to Deportivo Quito's internal problems and their threats of not traveling for the game. But this crisis is close to a solution, as Deportivo's players have received some of the postponed payments. And besides, these issues have been ever present for at least 3 months, and this never stopped them from taking on each game with professionalism (they have lost a single game this season). Full team is expected for Deportivo Quito, with the only absent being midfielder Luis Romero (14/1). Otherwise, all the big names are set to start, including striker Nieto (13 goals in 14 games) and winger Colon (14/8). Same story with Barcelona, as they will also have a full squad at their disposal, with the exception of midfielder Matias Oyola (14/1). They may have improved lately in the league, but I'm still not convinced that they will be able to fight at the top. And besides, Deportivo is traditionally a team that poses a lot of problems: in the last 15 direct games played in Guayaquil, Barcelona did manage to win the majority, but only 3 of them have been by more than a one-goal advantage. And if we look at the teams now, Deportivo looks better. I'd go for a draw here, but the handicap is the safer solution. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
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