Mexico - Ecuador

International Friendly Match

I'll go in favor of the home team here, despite things not being too sweet in their ranks. Ever since the World Cup, they haven't managed to find a solid replacement to Javier Aguirre, and after a short spell with Enrique Meza (who drew with Spain 1-1), now the position of interim coach is held by Efrain Flores, but only for a short period of time. Moreover, there are even some players that are making problems, with dos Santos who refused the call-up against Spain, and now Guillermo Franco has decided to hang his boots. As if that wasn't enough, the artificial turf of the Estadio Omnilife is not on the players' taste, and many have criticized it. However, Mexico does hold a pretty important advantage: most of their stars are available for this match, and a lot of them are expected to start tonight's game (early reports give in the starting line-up players like Ochoa, Salcido - Fulham, Barrera - West Ham, Rafa Marquez, Gerardo Torrado, dos Santos - Tottenham, Vela - Arsenal, and Hernandez - ManU), players with a lot of skill, quality and experience.

Ecuador came to Mexico with a young and very inexperienced team, where we can see only a few players that have played for the National team more than 5 times: Walter Ayovi from Monterrey, David Quiroz from Emelec, Antonio Valencia from Manchester United, Christian Benitez from Santos Laguna and Jefferson Montero from Villareal. So, out of the 18 players called for this match, only 6 of them are playing abroad, and only 3 of those 6 play in Europe. So here we have an obvious quality gap between the players of these two teams. And the artificial turf of the Estadio Omnilife should be an even bigger problem for the Ecuadorian players, as they don't have anything similar in their country, while the more professional Mexican players can adapt easier. Very low stakes here, because after all, it is a meaningless friendly. GL!

Mexico (-0.1 AH) @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Peru Primera Division - Last round of Descentralizado

I will try to write a few short opinions on most of the matches for this last round, at least for those matches that count. Here we go:

Alianza Lima - Chalaco
Alianza's only shot in this match is to go from the start to attack, score a few, and than hope that Leon doesn't win. Of course, they could take the second place even if both win, but it's highly unrealistic to think Alianza will win 5-0, while Leon only 1-0. So, chances are slim for Alianza to avoid San Martin's group, as even if they tank this match, there is a possibility that Cesar Vallejo won't win, so they will only lose contact with the leaders even more. All the players and the staff are saying they want to make a surprise, and to trash Chalaco, and I'm sure they will be really fired up for this game, especially since Chalaco doesn't have a very stable defense, and their record away from home isn't very encouraging. Also, coach Valencia left the team 3 days ago, leaving them in a rather poor and insecure state. The probable line-up will include the best they have, including some changes to give more speed to attack, and to force a few early goals. Moreover, there are some rumors that the referees will give Leon a tough time, so I'm sure there would be even more motivation for Alianza (not very trustworthy info, but you never know in Peru). I don't see Chalaco resisting too much, and I see an easy win for Alianza, with a few goals advantage. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, Sbobet, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Leon Huanuco - Sport Huancayo
Last week, this match seemed like the banker of the century, and it still does, as I just can't imagine Leon not winning it here. But with the recent rumors that the referee could be a pain for the Huanuquenos, and with Sport Hunacayo's financial motivation from Alianza (although the president stated he won't accept any money from Alianza, and considered the move as unethical), I'm starting to have some worries about the handicap, as even a win with a one goal difference, 99% guarantees them the second spot. So, I'm going for the over again. Huancayo is used to playing at high altitude, so they shouldn't suffer in Huanuco like other teams do. And if they really believe what they say, they should still be hoping/fighting for an Internationl competition, and any point is welcome. An early goal from them would certainly help things with the over, but if they don't, I'm counting on Leon to do the job. They aren't fighting for the title just because they are at high altitude; they also have a great team, with some very good players, and knowing their style of play, they won't just sit back and defend an eventual 1-0 lead. GL!

over 2.5 @ 1.87, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

Universidad San Martin - FBC Melgar
Little to say here. USM is with no doubt the best team in the league, already assured their ticket for Copa Libertadores, will probably start the Liguilla with an advantage of 9 points ahead of the second placed team, and could also receive 1 or 2 more points from their reserve team, which means they are 99% certain of playing the final of the league. Also, they have Copa Sudamericana duties, so they can take on the league matches with ease, and still make it comfortably to the final. Melgar is poor on the road, in a very bad form, so they shouldn't expect too much from this match. Normally, this should be an easy victory for USM, and I'm sure it will be, but for the handicap... I don't really know. They could just play for fun, make a nice show, etc, and no one will get upset if they just win 1-0 or 2-1. Should be a good combo material, but for the handicap will wait for something live, maybe the lines will go lower. GL!

Alianza Atletico - Universidad Cesar Vallejo
I'm skipping this one, as UCV is in a very tough position. They obviously want the 4th position, but are in the worst possible place to do it. Although they are 4th at the moment, things could change in just a few minutes, and here we have some different scenarios: if they win and Alianza loses (and it's not out of the question, if Leon and UCV both lead 3-0 after 20 minutes, Alianza could tank it), they move to 3rd place, which is bad. If they lose, and Universitario wins, they'll be on 5th place, which is even worse. This scenarios should be exploited in live-betting, depending on the score, and if the live-markets are available.

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal
I have a lot of respect for this team, as with such problems, I doubt many teams or players could have coped better with it. Their problems are well known: no money, debts, several players leaving, etc etc. But even so, when Ibarra took the helm at the team, they have been performing very well. I can remind about the 2 home wins against CNI and Inti Gas, and despite losing their last 2 away games, they did a very good job at Alianza Lima, showing that the players that stayed at the club are playing with their hearts. Now, things are starting to look better and better, as things settled down a bit, and it looks like the players will be payed soon. One more reason to give their best in this match, where altitude should benefit them (despite the problems, they are still 8-4-1 at home), and a win today could take them out of the hot zone for the Liguilla. Sporting Cristal lost pretty much all hope to challenge for the title, and can only hope for a Libertadores ticket, but even that could be very tough with their irregular recent form. They haven't won in Cuzco since 2003, and I don't see them too well today either. GL!

Cienciano @ 2.20, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 3-3, LOST

Libertad - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Things couldn't get any better for Libertad. They are on the first place in the league, won 5 out of 6 games, last week they trashed Trinidense 7-0, and their game-plan works perfect. Cunning attack, solid defense, good creativity. And unless they get complacent, they have a serious shot at the title, as both Cerro and Guarani look a bit off pace, not even worth mentioning Nacional and Olimpia. Libertad has one of the best squads in Paraguay, and has no injury or suspension problems for tonight's match, so they will pretty much repeat the same squad that score 7 goals last weekend. The only change in the team will see Vladimir Marin take the field in place of Jorge Gonzalez. And I don't expect complacency to be a problem here, as this is a derby, and a win here is very important for the standings.

For Guarani, things are also looking pretty good, being 3rd in the table, 4 points behind the leaders. But with their early participation in the Copa Sudamericana began the problems, and with a decisive match next week in Uruguay, they decided to give priority to the Internationl game, therefore they will rest some regulars for tonight. To be precise, it is expected that at least 8 regulars will left behind, in order to keep them fresh for the clash with River. Surely this must be a huge blow for them, making Libertad's victory pretty sure, as I doubt Guarani's reserves can rise to the Gumarelo standards. GL!

Libertad (-0.75) @ 1.90, Sbobet, 5/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Deportivo Quito - Olmedo

Ecuador Primera Division

Deportivo Quito is in good form, and they are looking better by the day, meaning that coach Sevilla really made a difference. 3 matches played since he arrived, and only 1 draw, but against the leaders from LDU. Both the other matches were won away from home. New striker double Gonzalez-Vigil and 'Zlatan' Fernandez are working good, and I only expect improvement from their part. They are pretty much out of any Libertadores race, but will still need some points for next year's Copa Sudamericana, and I guess that's on their agenda. Sevilla won't make any major changes in the line-up, and the only rotation will be in goal, where regular Ibarra is injured.

Olmedo's for is at the lowest, and so is morale. They carry 7 matches without a win, and couldn't do too much last week, but to keep a minimum difference against a second-string LDU team. So far, it looks like they will repeat the line-up that they fielded last week, and let's face it: their best players are average at their best. No clear idea in attack, poor finishing, and despite some usual solid defending, they can break easily under the pressure. And with the Vigil-Fernandez double working like charm (also helped a lot by Saritama and Minda), they will come under a lot of pressure. Deportivo to win by more than one goal looks tasty and realistical. GL!

Deportivo Quito (-1 AH) @ 2.02, bet365, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Cruz Azul - Real Salt Lake

CONCACAF Champions League

Finally found some info about Cruz Azul and their line-up for tonight. Don't know how reliable the info is, but apparently, they wll be sending on the field most of their regulars, and their squad looks much better than against Toronto. Torrado, Gimenez and Orozco should start the match. After one of their poorest performances I've ever seen (in the first half against the Canadians, they were nowhere to be found, and their defense seemed on drugs), they woke up a bit after some changes in the second half, and slowly started to take control of the match, but didn't do enough to secure at least a point. Now, they should be out in attack blazing, from the first minute, as with all the other teams having 3 points, anything but a win tonight could complicate the group a lot.

RSL is also reported to be using their strongest squad available, but I have my doubts regarding that, as after this match they will have to travel all the way to Canada, for an important match against Toronto on the weekend. So we may see some reserves on the field, but even if they go with their best team, they still have the second chance in this match. It's just a question of handicap, but with the market on the -1, I'll take it, as I don't think the time has come when a MLS team can win in Mexico. And with Cruz Azul probably learning from their mistake, I see them making a solid performance here. Small stakes only because of the questionable reliability of the line-up source. GL!

Cruz Azul (-1 AH) @ 1.98, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 5-4, VOID