Independiente - Penarol

Copa Libertadores

Last year, Independiente was resting regulars in Apertura to have them fit for Copa Sudamericana. And that worked well, managing to win the Cup, but things went worse than expected in the league, and now El Rojo is threatened by relegation.And with the clash against also relegation-threatened River coming up, coach Mohamed switched sides. This time, he will rest some regulars in Libertadores, in order to have them fit for the league. 5 players will miss the game with Penarol: defenders Matheu and Mareque, midfielders Battion and Fredes, and their most dangerous striker, Nestor Silvera. And for those who haven't seen their last league match, against Argentinos, it was one of the worst matches to watch, with neither team managing to create danger near the opposition's area, and Independiente especially excelled in that part. No danger, practically no scoring chances, lack of ideas etc. And their absences for today certainly won't make things any better. Out of their last 10 games, only 3 went over 2 goals, and in one of them it was thanks to Velez. Penarol is likely to come to Argentina defending, as a point will surely please them, and with Independiente's inability to break defenses to easily, I'm expecting a close match, most likely played in midfield. 0-0 seems like an appealing option in my opinion, but the Argentinians could edge it 1-0 in the end. Anyway, I'm expecting goals to be kept at a minimum. GL!

under 2.5 goals @ 1.84, 4/10

Result: 3-0, LOST

LDU Quito - Independiente Jose Teran

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

LDU Quito looks in red hot form lately, and they showed their previous monster form in their last match, when they won 5-0 in Casablanca against Manta. They suffered a bit in the first half, as they couldn't find many spaces, nor could they do that even after 1-0, as Manta just kept defending. But once the second goal came, and ruined the visitor's defensive plan, it was a piece of cake, as Liga never looked back and put 3 more beyond Los Atuneros. Coach Bauza will repeat exactly the same line-up today, despite two players recovering from their injuries. And honestly, after such a performance a few days ago, I don't see why he would change anything. But, an early goal will be key for this match, as Independiente will also pretty much defend, and will try to frustrate Liga's attacks for as long as possible. However, they look like a more easy to break opponent, having conceded goals in almost every match (1-1 at home against Espoli, 2-2 away at Imbabura), and their only victory came last weekend, at home, 1-0 against newly promoted Liga de Loja. If we look to the head-to-head, it suggests that this shouldn't even be a contest, as LDU won all 4 of their meetings with Independiente, without receiving a single goal, while scoring a fantastic 11 goals. Therefore, I'm an expecting another easy win for the current champions. GL!

LDU (-1.25 AH) @ 1.84, 5/10

Result: 2-1, HALF LOST

Estudiantes la Plata - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores

Estudiantes needs to make amends after last week recording their biggest continental loss of their history, the 0-5 trashing at the hands of Cruzeiro. Any other wrong step could seriously jeopardize their continuity in the cup, and a group-stage exit will be even more shameful than the loss in Brazil. Thankfully, the team reacted well after that disaster, and they managed to win their league match against Quilmes, despite resting a couple of players, including Veron. Now, it's 'guns blazing' for Estudiantes, and nothing but a win will help them. Everyone at the club looks motivated and focused, so I think we can expect a good match from them. Tolima was the surprise package of the play-off stage, knocking-out Corinthians, but honestly, you can't get any more pathetic than the Brazilians were. In the first group match, they won 1-0 against Guarani, and it's a fair result, although they had to suffer a lot before the final whistle: the goal came late, in the last 10 minutes... in the first half they missed some huge chances, while in the second half Guarani started playing, and actually managed to create some panic in Tolima's defense. Estudiantes probably won't make the same mistake, and I expect them to make their game, as Tolima's away tactics are defensive, using a single forward. Won't take a higher handicap because if the goal comes late, Estudiantes will be happy to defend it, but a win for the Argentinians should be a sure thing. GL!

Estudiantes (-1 AH) @ 1.69, 5/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Leon de Huanuco - Oriente Petrolero

Copa Libertadores

When the odds first became available, I said I'd stay away from this match, but they just keep getting higher and higher, and I see no reason for that, as the opening odds were seeming quite fair. Yes, Leon aren't going through their best moment, and after last year's fantastic achievement (Final of the league) I was pretty sure they had no chance of repeating that performance. And after Rodas and Perea, their best players in 2010, left, things didn't go too well, and Leon lost all 3 of their matches (2 in the league, 1 in Libertadores). The new players didn't blend in yet, and even if they are not of the same quality as last year's players, they are still good enough to keep Leon at a decent level. Gonzalez-Vigil has the duty to make Perea forgotten, and today he will start as a regular. Overall, Leon isn't performing too bad, but they miss something... even against Cobresol, they attacked and put some pressure, but the goal never came. Oriente isn't a bad team either, as they showed last week, when they really put some pressure on Gremio in the start of the match, but slowly things turned around, and they lost 0-3 in Brazil. They are nothing special, and even though their attack can put some pressure, their defense is likely to neutralize and advantages, as they seem quite poor at defending. And they also have an awful record against Peruvian teams, losing 7 out of 8 matches, so I don't see why not to try Leon at the current odds. GL!

Leon (-0.75 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 1-0, HALF WON

Emelec - Jorge Wilstermann

Copa Libertadores

Early bet for this match, as the lines and odds will surely drop a lot before kick-off. For this match, we'll have a Jorge Wilstermann side in the same situation as last week against Jaguares. The team plays in the Bolivian Second Division, despite winning the Apertura 2010. The tournament hasn't started yet, so last week's match in Mexico was the first official match of the year for them. They have a lot of new players, signed in the last 3 weeks, so very little time to make a team, and all of those players are relatively unknown. They lost 0-2 in Mexico, against a Jaguares side that doesn't scare too many people, so in Ecuador, they should have an even tougher time against Emelec. Los Electricos had a week off, after postponing their league game against Barcelona, so they had plenty of time to recover after the 1-1 draw against Internacional of Brazil. Emelec have a much more offensive style than the Mexicans, so it will be interesting to see how Wilstermann will cope with the pressure. I'm honestly very surprised to see a lower handicap line than last week, because as I've said, Emelec has more firepower than Jaguares, and more flow in their game, so I expect a bigger score line this time. That is why I'm going with high stakes on this one, as the current line/odds represent value, especially compared to the lines that will be available before kick-off. GL!

Emelec (-1.75 AH) @ 1.84, 7/10

Result: 1-0, LOST