Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
For the first time ever, I am going to take two different bets on the same game. Originally, I intended to take only the over, but the recent odds movements make the other bet a must take. Both teams started the season in quite a good fashion: LDU won their opening match against U Catolica with 2-1, and they showed some good skills and nice football. They are aiming for the title, but I have my doubts about their consistency, as they have changed a lot of players, and want to reconstruct the team. Three important players are definitely out through injury: defenders Araujo (team-captain) and Reasco, and midfielder Rojas. Furthermore, goalkeeper Dominguez, defender Morante and midfielder Saritama are doubtful, as they played against Portugal on Wednesday, and due to some airline problems, they only returned to the club yesterday. So even if they will play, they surely won't be at 100%. El Nacional also won their opening game, 3-1 against Cuenca, but they have also lost 1-2 at Macara, despite being the better team throughout much of the match. They have been showing some nice attacking plays, and I'm sure they'll do the same today, as they have no important absences. LDU should suffer a bit with those absences, and since most of them are defensive players, goals should come (on a side note, from their last 10 mutual games, 9 had at least 2 goals, while 7 of them ended in over 2.5). And also, under these circumstances, they should by no means be favorites. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
El Nacional DNB @ 2.37, 2/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
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Feb 10, 2013
Feb 9, 2013
LDU Loja - Barcelona
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona started this season in a dissapointing fashion, failing to win either of their 2 matches, despite some modest opposition like Manta and Quevedo. They appear to be struggling to reach the opposition's are, and are failing to put pressure and create chances. They did have some resting time, and I'm sure coach Costas worked on those areas, but some important absences tonight won't make their job any easier. Defenders Paredes and Erazo have played with the national team on Wednsday, and due to some airline problems they will only get to the club today, so they are ruled out. Same goes for goalkeeper Banguera. Furthermore, midfielder Damian Diaz is recovering from an injury, while forward Castillejos and midfielder Olmedo have not been called-up for this match. That gives us a list of 6 unavailable players, and at least 4 of them are key players in the squad. Loja won't have any important absences, and even though they also had a rough start of the season (2-2 draw at home with Deportivo Quito, and a 1-2 loss at Independiente), I'm confident they will step up their game eventually. And this would be the perfect chance, against a damaged Barcelona. GL!
Loja DNB @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Barcelona started this season in a dissapointing fashion, failing to win either of their 2 matches, despite some modest opposition like Manta and Quevedo. They appear to be struggling to reach the opposition's are, and are failing to put pressure and create chances. They did have some resting time, and I'm sure coach Costas worked on those areas, but some important absences tonight won't make their job any easier. Defenders Paredes and Erazo have played with the national team on Wednsday, and due to some airline problems they will only get to the club today, so they are ruled out. Same goes for goalkeeper Banguera. Furthermore, midfielder Damian Diaz is recovering from an injury, while forward Castillejos and midfielder Olmedo have not been called-up for this match. That gives us a list of 6 unavailable players, and at least 4 of them are key players in the squad. Loja won't have any important absences, and even though they also had a rough start of the season (2-2 draw at home with Deportivo Quito, and a 1-2 loss at Independiente), I'm confident they will step up their game eventually. And this would be the perfect chance, against a damaged Barcelona. GL!
Loja DNB @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Feb 1, 2013
Cesar Vallejo - Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores, Preliminary Round
This will be the last match of the preliminary round of the Copa Libertadores, and only after it will be over will we know how all the groups will look like. And despite some strange odds movements, I still see Tolima as the favorites here. They are a solid team (traditionally, Colombian teams are better than Peruvian ones) and should have plenty of international experience, unlike Cesar Vallejo, who are making their international debut. In the first round, Tolima dominated the match, had control of the ball and created several chances to score. However, some heroic defending from Cesar Vallejo's defenders and goalkeeper limited the score to just 1-0 for the Colombians. Now it should be a different match, as the Peruvians need to attack and try to score. Tolima also have quite a solid defense, so we should be on the lookout for some deadly counter attacks. Quality and experience are on the visitors side, and with the current odds we should have a good bet here. GL!
Tolima DNB @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
This will be the last match of the preliminary round of the Copa Libertadores, and only after it will be over will we know how all the groups will look like. And despite some strange odds movements, I still see Tolima as the favorites here. They are a solid team (traditionally, Colombian teams are better than Peruvian ones) and should have plenty of international experience, unlike Cesar Vallejo, who are making their international debut. In the first round, Tolima dominated the match, had control of the ball and created several chances to score. However, some heroic defending from Cesar Vallejo's defenders and goalkeeper limited the score to just 1-0 for the Colombians. Now it should be a different match, as the Peruvians need to attack and try to score. Tolima also have quite a solid defense, so we should be on the lookout for some deadly counter attacks. Quality and experience are on the visitors side, and with the current odds we should have a good bet here. GL!
Tolima DNB @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
Jan 31, 2013
Barcelona - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Slightly different mood for these two teams. Reigning champions Barcelona had a rough start against newly promoted Deportivo Quevedo, after a rather poor match, which they were still able to dominate. A few changes are expected for today, and even though they should employ once again a formation with 4 defenders (something they are not really used to, as they always prefer a defensive line with 3 men), their offensive system shouldn't suffer (just one striker is expected to play, but he will be backed-up by 3 offensive midfielders). We know Barcelona's offensive prowess from last season, and I don't expect that too change too much. Manta won their first match, and have done so in style, beating Independiente by 3-1. Now of course, Independiente is not at the same level with Barcelona, but Manta's style of play was encouraging, and hopefully, they can transfer it into this match as well. Anyway, Barcelona should be leading the match here, and they should be wounded and thirsty for blood. I was expecting the line to be set at 2.5, therefore, this line proves to have some value. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Slightly different mood for these two teams. Reigning champions Barcelona had a rough start against newly promoted Deportivo Quevedo, after a rather poor match, which they were still able to dominate. A few changes are expected for today, and even though they should employ once again a formation with 4 defenders (something they are not really used to, as they always prefer a defensive line with 3 men), their offensive system shouldn't suffer (just one striker is expected to play, but he will be backed-up by 3 offensive midfielders). We know Barcelona's offensive prowess from last season, and I don't expect that too change too much. Manta won their first match, and have done so in style, beating Independiente by 3-1. Now of course, Independiente is not at the same level with Barcelona, but Manta's style of play was encouraging, and hopefully, they can transfer it into this match as well. Anyway, Barcelona should be leading the match here, and they should be wounded and thirsty for blood. I was expecting the line to be set at 2.5, therefore, this line proves to have some value. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Jan 30, 2013
U Catolica - Emelec
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
The first round of the Ecuadorian Serie A has passed, and hopefully, now we have a pretty clear image of the teams. Newly-promoted U Catolica made a decent performance, despite losing to LDU 1-2. They might have gotten something more from that match, as LDU was fielding several reserve players, but it wasn't to be. Even so, they showed some nice football, with plenty of offensive moves, and they will just need to work on their finishing skills. Emelec made a perfect start of the season, beating Macara by 3-0, showing good football and offensive efficiency. And they got us used to that style of play, and as they are usually a team that tries to score one more than their opponents. The line-up shouldn't change for tonight, and they are of course slight favorites in this match, even though Catolica for sure won't roll over. If both teams keep the same style of play as in the first round, this bet should be a lock. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 0-4, WON
The first round of the Ecuadorian Serie A has passed, and hopefully, now we have a pretty clear image of the teams. Newly-promoted U Catolica made a decent performance, despite losing to LDU 1-2. They might have gotten something more from that match, as LDU was fielding several reserve players, but it wasn't to be. Even so, they showed some nice football, with plenty of offensive moves, and they will just need to work on their finishing skills. Emelec made a perfect start of the season, beating Macara by 3-0, showing good football and offensive efficiency. And they got us used to that style of play, and as they are usually a team that tries to score one more than their opponents. The line-up shouldn't change for tonight, and they are of course slight favorites in this match, even though Catolica for sure won't roll over. If both teams keep the same style of play as in the first round, this bet should be a lock. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 0-4, WON
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