Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Iquique produced a huge surprise in the preliminary round, as they eliminated Club de Leon of Mexico, a team that started the round as favorites against the Chileans. And early away goal in Mexico, a couple of 1-1 draws and nerves of steel in the following penalty shootout saw Iquique advance, although they didn't seem to be better than Leon. And I definitely don't see them as being Libertadores material, especially since they are having quite a poor run of form. They did manage to beat Colo Colo last weekend, but that was their first win on the year in 8 matches (3 of them were friendlies). Penarol are yet to start their season, and they can't be too proud of their pre-season results either. But they have a very strong team, and 9 of the regulars that won the Apertura last year are still present. So they have kept the core of the team, and have added a couple of new players that will definitely provide a boost. Iquique also lack experience at this level, so I doubt they will be able to pose any problems tonight. They do play organized, so if Penarol will lack focus this may very well end up in a draw, but normally, quality is on Penarol's side. GL!
Penarol (+0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
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Feb 14, 2013
Feb 13, 2013
Emelec - Velez
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Main reason for this bet is the very low line, which I believe it could well be reached by half-time. Emelec were amazing so far in their league, as they won all 3 matches, with an awesome 10-1 goal difference. This says a lot about their potential and about their offensive style of play. Of course, they are probably going to take a more careful approach tonight, as going all-in against Velez might well be suicidal, but the core is set, and they should try an go for a win. And they have a good record in this competition, and we can remember some of their matches from last year, especially the thrilling 3-2 win against Flamengo in Guayaquil, where Emelec came from behind twice. Velez is also a team that usually prefers to attack, and I'm confident they'll play the same today as well. But their defense should be the problem here, since they have barely started their national championship, while in the preparation matches they got a lot of head-aches from the defense, as they received 1 goal from Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol, and 4 goals from Cerro Porteno. They can be deadly while attacking, but at the same time they can suffer a lot at the back. And Emelec, playing close to their full potential, might just as well take advantage of that. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Main reason for this bet is the very low line, which I believe it could well be reached by half-time. Emelec were amazing so far in their league, as they won all 3 matches, with an awesome 10-1 goal difference. This says a lot about their potential and about their offensive style of play. Of course, they are probably going to take a more careful approach tonight, as going all-in against Velez might well be suicidal, but the core is set, and they should try an go for a win. And they have a good record in this competition, and we can remember some of their matches from last year, especially the thrilling 3-2 win against Flamengo in Guayaquil, where Emelec came from behind twice. Velez is also a team that usually prefers to attack, and I'm confident they'll play the same today as well. But their defense should be the problem here, since they have barely started their national championship, while in the preparation matches they got a lot of head-aches from the defense, as they received 1 goal from Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol, and 4 goals from Cerro Porteno. They can be deadly while attacking, but at the same time they can suffer a lot at the back. And Emelec, playing close to their full potential, might just as well take advantage of that. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Nacional - Barcelona
Copa Libertadores 2013
The main stage of the Copa Libertadores begins tonight, and we have a full menu, as this week presents to us a whooping 13 matches. And Nacional Montevideo will open the ceremony, against Barcelona of Ecuador. High hopes are in store for the Uruguayan side, as they have greatly strengthened their team with some very experienced players. The new signings include forward Ivan Also (played in Spain for Alaves, Murcia and Espanyol), midfielder Juan Albin (also played with Getafe and Espanyol), veteran forward Sebastian 'Loco' Abreu (long-career, including spells with Real Sociedad, and several teams in Mexico and Argentina), Colombian defender Efrain Cortes and midfielder Diego Arismendi (played for a few teams in the English Championship League). So we can see good players, with plenty of experience, that would definitely provide a boost to the team. And all of them come in addition to the core of the team, that remains pretty much the same as last year. Meanwhile, Barcelona have also kept most of their main players, but their performances this year have been poor. 2 draws in the beginning of the season, in which they didn't show much, plus a defeat last weekend (not very important, since they were missing quite a few regulars). I don't really see them as being able to snatch even a point here, in front of a fully packed Parque Central Stadium. GL!
Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-2, LOST
The main stage of the Copa Libertadores begins tonight, and we have a full menu, as this week presents to us a whooping 13 matches. And Nacional Montevideo will open the ceremony, against Barcelona of Ecuador. High hopes are in store for the Uruguayan side, as they have greatly strengthened their team with some very experienced players. The new signings include forward Ivan Also (played in Spain for Alaves, Murcia and Espanyol), midfielder Juan Albin (also played with Getafe and Espanyol), veteran forward Sebastian 'Loco' Abreu (long-career, including spells with Real Sociedad, and several teams in Mexico and Argentina), Colombian defender Efrain Cortes and midfielder Diego Arismendi (played for a few teams in the English Championship League). So we can see good players, with plenty of experience, that would definitely provide a boost to the team. And all of them come in addition to the core of the team, that remains pretty much the same as last year. Meanwhile, Barcelona have also kept most of their main players, but their performances this year have been poor. 2 draws in the beginning of the season, in which they didn't show much, plus a defeat last weekend (not very important, since they were missing quite a few regulars). I don't really see them as being able to snatch even a point here, in front of a fully packed Parque Central Stadium. GL!
Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-2, LOST
Feb 10, 2013
El Nacional - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
For the first time ever, I am going to take two different bets on the same game. Originally, I intended to take only the over, but the recent odds movements make the other bet a must take. Both teams started the season in quite a good fashion: LDU won their opening match against U Catolica with 2-1, and they showed some good skills and nice football. They are aiming for the title, but I have my doubts about their consistency, as they have changed a lot of players, and want to reconstruct the team. Three important players are definitely out through injury: defenders Araujo (team-captain) and Reasco, and midfielder Rojas. Furthermore, goalkeeper Dominguez, defender Morante and midfielder Saritama are doubtful, as they played against Portugal on Wednesday, and due to some airline problems, they only returned to the club yesterday. So even if they will play, they surely won't be at 100%. El Nacional also won their opening game, 3-1 against Cuenca, but they have also lost 1-2 at Macara, despite being the better team throughout much of the match. They have been showing some nice attacking plays, and I'm sure they'll do the same today, as they have no important absences. LDU should suffer a bit with those absences, and since most of them are defensive players, goals should come (on a side note, from their last 10 mutual games, 9 had at least 2 goals, while 7 of them ended in over 2.5). And also, under these circumstances, they should by no means be favorites. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
El Nacional DNB @ 2.37, 2/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
For the first time ever, I am going to take two different bets on the same game. Originally, I intended to take only the over, but the recent odds movements make the other bet a must take. Both teams started the season in quite a good fashion: LDU won their opening match against U Catolica with 2-1, and they showed some good skills and nice football. They are aiming for the title, but I have my doubts about their consistency, as they have changed a lot of players, and want to reconstruct the team. Three important players are definitely out through injury: defenders Araujo (team-captain) and Reasco, and midfielder Rojas. Furthermore, goalkeeper Dominguez, defender Morante and midfielder Saritama are doubtful, as they played against Portugal on Wednesday, and due to some airline problems, they only returned to the club yesterday. So even if they will play, they surely won't be at 100%. El Nacional also won their opening game, 3-1 against Cuenca, but they have also lost 1-2 at Macara, despite being the better team throughout much of the match. They have been showing some nice attacking plays, and I'm sure they'll do the same today, as they have no important absences. LDU should suffer a bit with those absences, and since most of them are defensive players, goals should come (on a side note, from their last 10 mutual games, 9 had at least 2 goals, while 7 of them ended in over 2.5). And also, under these circumstances, they should by no means be favorites. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
El Nacional DNB @ 2.37, 2/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Feb 9, 2013
LDU Loja - Barcelona
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona started this season in a dissapointing fashion, failing to win either of their 2 matches, despite some modest opposition like Manta and Quevedo. They appear to be struggling to reach the opposition's are, and are failing to put pressure and create chances. They did have some resting time, and I'm sure coach Costas worked on those areas, but some important absences tonight won't make their job any easier. Defenders Paredes and Erazo have played with the national team on Wednsday, and due to some airline problems they will only get to the club today, so they are ruled out. Same goes for goalkeeper Banguera. Furthermore, midfielder Damian Diaz is recovering from an injury, while forward Castillejos and midfielder Olmedo have not been called-up for this match. That gives us a list of 6 unavailable players, and at least 4 of them are key players in the squad. Loja won't have any important absences, and even though they also had a rough start of the season (2-2 draw at home with Deportivo Quito, and a 1-2 loss at Independiente), I'm confident they will step up their game eventually. And this would be the perfect chance, against a damaged Barcelona. GL!
Loja DNB @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Barcelona started this season in a dissapointing fashion, failing to win either of their 2 matches, despite some modest opposition like Manta and Quevedo. They appear to be struggling to reach the opposition's are, and are failing to put pressure and create chances. They did have some resting time, and I'm sure coach Costas worked on those areas, but some important absences tonight won't make their job any easier. Defenders Paredes and Erazo have played with the national team on Wednsday, and due to some airline problems they will only get to the club today, so they are ruled out. Same goes for goalkeeper Banguera. Furthermore, midfielder Damian Diaz is recovering from an injury, while forward Castillejos and midfielder Olmedo have not been called-up for this match. That gives us a list of 6 unavailable players, and at least 4 of them are key players in the squad. Loja won't have any important absences, and even though they also had a rough start of the season (2-2 draw at home with Deportivo Quito, and a 1-2 loss at Independiente), I'm confident they will step up their game eventually. And this would be the perfect chance, against a damaged Barcelona. GL!
Loja DNB @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
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