Spain - Chile

International Friendly Match

As usual, I try to stay away from friendly matches, especially the ones played so early, when the players barely started their season, so I'm only going for this one, as it looks quite good. Was honestly expecting odds around 1.30 for Spain, so we have some small value here (if there is such a thing in friendly matches). Don't think there is a need to talk about Spain too much, as pretty much everyone agrees they are probably the best team in the world, and have the best squad in their history. They look very solid in all areas of the field, and their possession football is efficient, and enough to drive any opposition insane. Pretty much full squad for them, as all the big names are present, but if we really want to find some absences, just Puyol and Marchena are the names that jump out. Chile's defense will also miss some players (Ponce, Cereceda), and 3 of the 6 defenders are debutants. And that's pretty much the situation in all areas... Chile has some good players, that should make a good starting line-up, but once the reserves start to hit in, they could be having some problems. Alexis Sanchez is the only dangerous name in Chile's attack, but I doubt he can do too much by himself. Spain should win this, and I'm expecting something close to 3-0, so the handicap line is worth a shot. Small stakes though, as this is just a friendly match. GL!

Spain (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 3-2, VOID

LDU Loja - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Liga de Loja has recently been involved in some nice matches, where we saw several goals and some nice football. So we can have some high hopes that against Emelec, we can see both teams at their offensive best. If we look at Loja's results in this second stage of the tournament, we will probably stop at the 4-2 defeat of Cuenca, as well as on  the 6-3 away win at Independiente. Loja has been showing an appetite for goals, and with their defense being rather shaky, this usually proved great entertainment. Emelec's line-up is still unknown, but I doubt Carrasco will change from his already famos offensive formation, especially since it appears to be working so well, last round beating Espoli by 4-0. Both these teams seem to be in favor of the offensive football, so I think we can be sure that we'll see some goals. Both their previous matches ended with 5 goals, Emelec winning at home 3-2, and away with 4-1, so at least 3 today should be no problem for them.

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Libertad - 3 de Febrero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Libertad seems to be in great form, as after 4 rounds of the Clausura, they are on second place, one point behind the leaders Olimpia. And that is quite impressive, especially if we look at their tough schedule, because in the first rounds, they have already played against 3 of the main runners to the title: drew at home 1-1 with Nacional, beat Olimpia 2-1 with a late goal, and last week they trashed Guarani away from home, 3-0. Good form, and good play for Libertad, as they take on 3 de Febrero, where they will surely want another victory. Meanwhile, 3 de Febrero looks set to struggle against relegation for what's left of this season, and their recent form is nothing but to worry about, as they haven't taken a single point in these first few rounds. 3 home defeats, against Tacuary, Guarani and Rubio, along a 0-4 loss at Olimpia, so the difference in quality between them and the front-runners is more than obvious. Libertad has won 8 of the last 10 home games with 3 Febrero, including some whooping 5-0 and 8-0 results in the last couple of years, so I expect them to once again be at the top of their play, and another high scoring victory is very possible. GL!

Libertad (-1.25 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

CA Cerro - Nacional Montevideo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nacional still couldn't win a match in the league, after 2 rounds, so Gallardo will have to dig deep to turn things around. However, today might not be their day again, as they face a very strong home team, with a good squad, capable of challenging for one of the high places at the end of the season. Cerro are hard to beat at home. Last year, in 15 matches played in Troccoli, they have lost only 3. And for this season, with their new and improved squad, they have won both games played, at home with Cerrito, and away at Rampla. Nacional has been looking good when attacking, but their defense is very fragile, and often allows spaces (5 goals scored and received in 2 matches). And another blow for them should be the absence of their young and talented central defender, Sebastian Coates, who left to sign with Liverpool. So a big gap in an already troubled defense. And then, we have the head-to-head, where we can see a Cerro-domination. Nacional hasn't won as visitors since 2006, with Cerro actually winning the last 3 games, with high scores (2 games ended 3-1, with the other one ending 4-1). They know how to defend their home team position, and with Nacional still without impressing, I think the points will remain on Estadio Troccoli tonight. GL!

Cerro (+0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 0-0, WON

Emelec - Espoli

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Going to try the over on Emelec once again. So far, Carrasco's ultra-offensive system has failed, and a lot of complaints have been heard. Emelec's directors still have faith in him, but that patience will surely start to fade away if the team doesn't work. It is well known that Carrasco is an adept of the 'all-in-attack' football, and today he'll make some changes in the team, moving from his usual 4-3-3 formation to an even more offensive 3-3-1-3. Only God knows how well will that work, points-wise, but I think we can be pretty sure we'll be seeing some goals. Espoli has one of the worst defenses in the league, and if Emelec make their charges right, they could very well suffocate their back line. And they are sure to leave some spaces behind, so Espoli can try their chances on the counter-attack. This should be an entertaining match to watch, as it's not just about the 3 points here, but also about Carrasco proving his system can be effective. A plus for Emelec should be the return to the team of Fernando Gaibor, that is expected to be the missing link between the midfield and the attack. Let's hope for a goal-fiesta. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.89, 3/10

Result: 4-0, WON