Union Comercio - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Last round in Peru, and there are still some teams that are fighting for something. Union Comercio is one of them, as they are still hoping to reach the last place that qualifies to the Copa Sudamericana for 2012. That is why they will be sending the best they have tonight, in order to secure the 3 points, and hope that Inti Gas wonțt win their game (as Inti Gas has one point more than them). Therefore, expect a full team, with high motivation. On the other side of the pitch, we will have a very troubled Universitario, that suffered a lot this season, although they have managed to avoid relegation in extremis last week, after their 2-2 draw with Cesar Vallejo. And since they no longer have an objective to play for, the coach has decided to give his key players an early holiday, and will take on this match with a mixed team of reserves and youth players. From U's main players, Vitti, Ruidiaz, Morel, Llontop and others didn't even make the trip. Their away form also gives them little hope (not a single win, and only 1 goal scored), so I think the points will go to the team that actually needs them. GL!

Comercio (-0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 3-2, HALF-WON

Danubio - Bella Vista

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Last round also in Uruguay, and here we should see a lot of emotions, as 3 teams are fighting for the title. Penarol is the current leader, but since they have already finished their matches in the Apertura, now they just have to wait and pray. Nacional don't depend on anybody but themselves, and with a win tonight they will be the champions, but Liverpool has the ability to ruin their party. That leaves only Danubio. They need to win and to hope for a Nacional-slump, so I still give them some pretty nice chances to finish this tournament on the first place. Their solid home form (undefeated) plays in their favor, and knowing that first of all they need to win in order to hope for something, they should go on the pitch at full strength and with high determination, especially since they are playing against the last placed team in the league. Even if Nacional takes an early lead, Danubio shouldn't throw their arms in surrender, as they also have the aggregate table to think about, and if they want to play an international tournament in 2012 they need to make as much points as possible. The handicap can be a bit risky, but since Danubio's win shouldn't be under question, they are fully capable of taking at least a 2-0 win. GL!

Danubio (-1.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10

Result: 4-1, WON

U de Chile - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-final

I was on the over in the first leg too, and even though the match ended as 1-1, the bet was right, as the flow was very good, and there were a lot of missed goal-chances. So I'm going to repeat that bet. Vasco needs to attack from the start, in order to take back the away goal that U de Chile got in the first game. The Brazilians are going for this match full strength, with all their players, showing that they really want this title. And with their attack working great most of the times, I'm confident they will get at least a goal. From there, it will all be up to U de Chile to decide the game. They have been compared to Barcelona, and indeed, they're style of play is very good. Always going for goals, always looking to get the ball forward... so don't expect them to sit back and wait, despite the slight advantage they have due to their away goal. And also, Vasco's defensive line is far from being solid, so a couple of fast and well placed balls will really prove troublesome. I'm expecting a very entertaining match, and this time I think we'll see goals, as revenge for the missed chances from last weeks. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Cerro Porteno - 3 de Febrero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Huge match for both teams tonight. A couple of weeks ago, 3 de Febrero were already dead and buried, and no one gave them much chances of pulling off a miracle. But now, following a very encouraging run, they are hoping again. They took 7 points from the last possible 9 (could've made a clean sweep of 9/9, but received a late equalizer from Sol), including an emphatic 7-3 victory as visitors, at General Caballero, and a 2-1 win against powerhouse Libertad. They are playing with a new found self-belief, and I'm sure they'll fight until the last minute, especially since they need to make at least 6 points more than Luqueno (12 still available). Cerro Porteno also can't afford any wrong turns, as they are in the middle of a fierce battle for the title, and a win tonight could even see them take the lead of the championship (or at least they will keep the 2 points distance to current leaders Libertad). And for them, taking the title is the only option they have to qualify for the 2012 Libertadores. A loss here would not only destroy their chances for the title, but could also put their qualification to Sudamericana at risk. They should also receive an offensive boost, as playmaker Jonathan Fabbro is expected to play from the beginning. Both teams have been free-scoring lately, and with both of them expected to give their best, I'm counting on quite a nice match here.

over 2.75 goals @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 3-0, HALF-WON

Rubio Nu - General Caballero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Odds went up for this match, without too much explanations, thus giving us what I see as some very nice value on the home team. The lines is now -0.75, and for that we have better odds than the original -1. Both teams are still fighting for something, although objectively speaking only Rubio Nu has some real chances of achieving something. They are currently sitting in the last place that qualifies to Copa Sudamericana, and if they want to keep it, they need to win here, as Guarani is just 2 points behind them. Morale should be high after last weekend's surprise win at Nacional, and they also have a domination of Caballero, having won all 3 of their matches this year. General Caballero is trying hard to avoid relegation, but nothing seems to be going their way. They are last in the promedio standings, and from my calculations they would need to win 3 of the last 4 matches in order to remain in the division (assuming Luqueno also loses all of their matches), but with their current form (lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a shocking 3-7 loss at home to 3 de Febrero), I doubt there is much they can do. GL!

Rubio (-0.75 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10

Abandoned in 42nd minute due to crowd violence, VOID