Peru - Colombia

FIFA World Cup 2014 Qualifiers

Odds have already dropped on this match, but even so, I think this bet is worth taking. We all know Peru as the team of 'The Fantastic 4': Guerrero, Farfan, Pizarro and Vargas. They have both experience and quality, but if you take them away, Peru is just an average team. And tonight, three of those four are out: Pizarro, Farfan and Vargas, and besides them, defender Carlos Zambrano will also miss today's match. That will leave them to take on this match a lot of local players, as the only Europe-based players will be Acasiete (Almeria), Cruzado (Chievo), Guerrero (Hamburg) and Carrillo (Sporting). Meanwhile, the Colombians have a strong team, especially in the back, where they have plenty of experience and quality (although quite old). From the midfield and up, we also see plenty of class, with Guarin, Cuadrado (Udinese), Pabon (Atletico Nacional) and, of course, Falcao. And under this circumstances, I think Colombia has the edge in this game, and should take at least a point tonight. GL!

Colombia DNB @ 2.00, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Nacional - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Hard to find a good bet in this last round of the Uruguayan championship, as only two teams still have something to play for. And from those two teams, I've chosen Nacional Montevideo. They are the Apertura winners, and will play for sure in the league's semi-final (which could transform in the league final). The scenario goes like this: the Apertura and the Clausura winners will play in the semi-final, and the winner will play in the final against the winner of the Anual table. Since Nacional and Defensor are the Apertura and Clausura champions, and they are also the only teams with chances to win the annual table, everything will be decided between them. And the important thing in this case is that if the Annual champion also wins it's semi-final match, they will be automatically win the league. If not, they will have to play a second game, which will count as the final. So it's quite a lot at stake here. Nacional are undefeated in their last 8 games in the league, and today Cabrera and Recoba are again expected to start in the midfield, with Porta and Viudez responsible with the goals. Liverpool plays for nothing, so it will be all up to Nacional to win the Annual table. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result:  4-3, HALF-WON

Defensor Sporting - El Tanque Sisley

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

This could be a great day for Defensor Sporting, as their fate in this championship is in their hands. A win today would make them the Clausura winners, thus earning a spot in the final of the league, and they could also become the new leaders in the Anual Standings, if Nacional fails to win. So really, everything is up to them, and I have high confidence in them being able to deliver the expected. They are on a roll currently, and their only absence in this game will be the lateral defender Pablo Pintos, who saw the red card in their last match. Other than that, nothing will change, and I don't see how a defensive absence would count too much against a team that will most likely defend throughout the match. El Tanque plays for nothing, as they are already safe from relegation. Nothing else for them this season, as they are far behind the places that qualify for a continental competition. They say they want to win, but they are quite a limited team, and they shouldn't pose too many problems to the title contenders. The line is quite high, and rightfully so, but Defensor should be more than able to cover it. GL!

Defensor (-1.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

El Nacional - Macara

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I've been waiting for a long time for the perfect moment to bet on El Nacional, and I think that moment finally came. I know that their recent run of for may be off-putting (without a win in 5 games, and with 3 defeats from those 5 matches), but they are bound to recover sooner or later. They are not such a bad team as their results and league position suggests, and if we look at their opponents in the last 5 rounds, we can see Emelec, LDU Quito and Deportivo Quito, plus Cuenca, another team in the top half of the table. So no one expected miracles from them. But now, they will face what should be a much easier team, Macar, and they are in desperate need of a win. Coach Vizuete is rumoured to be safe on his position, but I doubt that those in charge will have more patience if he fails today as well. They will miss forward Preciado (10/3) and defender Narvaez (8/0), but this should not matter too much. Much more important absences could have Macara (who don't have a very wide squad), and they will miss for sure their regular goalkeeper Mora (13), while forward Guerra (7/4) and midfielder Esterilla (13/1) are doubtful. They are without a win in all their away games this season, so seriously, if El Nacional wants to get back on track, today is the day to do it. GL!

El Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

LDU Loja - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

My first thought for this match was of course to skip it, but the recent odds movement is ridiculous, and under this circumstances I just can't stay away from this game. The asian lines opened with a -0.25 for Loja, with odds around 1.85-1.90, and now we can get an even better price for the DNB, so no matter the outcome, we have value here. And other than the names of the teams, I can't see any reason for the odds. Loja is a small team, but they have performing well this season (4th place currently, but with a win today they will be tied on points with the leaders), and they also have a nice game flow, pleasant to watch. No important absences for them, and even more, they welcome back defender Vera (13) after a suspension. Also, they are undefeated in the last 6 matches, in which they've beaten Emelec and made an away draw with LDU. Deportivo Quito is indeed a big name, but this season they have mostly struggled, especially since they also had a tough and tireing Libertadores campaign. They did win clearly their last match, 3-0 with El Nacional, but I still don't trust them enough. Also, they will miss today some important players: regular goalkeeper Elizaga and midfielders Olivo (11) and Alex Bolanos (9/1). Loja are a strong team, and they could surprise once again tonight. GL!

LDU Loja DNB @ 1.98, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON