Nacional - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Taking this early as well, as I'm quite surprised by these odds, and I don't really believe they will remain like this for two more days. I've written last week about Olimpia's situation, and not much has changed since. Marin, Oretman and Romero are still out of the squad due to disciplinary reasons, and this should keep Olimpia suffering when it comes to dangerous play. Last match, without the trio, they struggled with Rubio Nu. They have indeed dominated the match, so the win is deserved, but the goal only came in the 95th minute, as Olimpia was playing with an extra-man since the 60th minute. So a lot of struggle, against one of the poorest teams in the league. With Nacional we should see a different scenario. Despite their rather poor season, they are still class better than Rubio, and should be able to pose more of a threat to Olimpia. Matches between them are always tight affairs, but this time, I think Nacional should have the edge. I'm counting at least on a draw, but I also don't rule out a home win. There's value in this bet, as I don't see how Olimpia can be considered favorites, so I'll be taking it with full stake. GL!

Nacional (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF-WON

Liverpool - Rentistas

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Can't really understand the odds here. Liverpool is the favorite, and justified, but the odds for the handicap seem to be much too high. Title chasers Liverpool had a recent slump, losing at home to Wanderers and drawing at Danubio, but recovered in style, winning at Penarol 1-0. So morale should be high for them, especially now that Nacional failed last night, and with a win today Liverpool would jump to at least second place (even 1st place if Defensor don't win their morning match). Also, they would be a step closer to securing a Sudamericana spot. And their home form of 4-0-1 should also be confirmed. Meanwhile, Rentistas are dead-last in both Clausura and the Relegation table, with no chances to save themselves, so they are basically fighting for nothing. They are yet to win a single match in this tournament, and as visitors they have only snatched a single point, scoring 3 goals and conceding 12. Another incentive for Liverpool should be the revenge factor, as in the Apertura they lost 0-3 at Rentistas. Handicap is high, but the odds are very good, and with a clear difference in quality, and also a different motivation, Liverpool should cover it. GL!

Liverpool (-1.5 AH) @ 2.23, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Early match in Uruguay, but one that promises to provide quality entertainment, and also some goals. Both teams like to play offensively, and both of them need a win today, so I doubt any of them would be happy to just sit back and wait for their opponent's mistake. After Nacional's draw from last night, Defensor basically has a clear way to the final. If they win today, and also win their postponed match, they will be 6 points clear from Nacional, at least 4 points clear of Liverpool, and at least 6 points clear from Penarol, with 3 games remaining. So everything is in their hands. For Cerro Largo this will also be a huge match: a win will confirm their great season, and will also put them in contention for a place in the final, as well as for a place in the 2013 Copa Libertadores. So a draw is not in anybody's favor. And since the teams have the capacity and ability to play offensive football, and can also transfer the ball very quickly from defense to offense, goals should come. Since 2008, Defensor and Cerro faced each other 5 times, and 4 of those matches had at least 3 goals. So let's hope they stick to this trend. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.77, 3/10

Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

LDU Quito - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Both teams with a solid season so far, although one of them are underachievers, while the others are overachievers. Liga de Quito are currently on second place, 2 points behind the leaders, so that may not sound so bad. But after the massive investments from pre-season, a lot more was expected from them, their recent run of 2 games without a win has put some doubts on their credentials. Last week they drew 1-1 at El Nacional, despite playing for almost an hour with an extra man. They had the possesion and tried to press, but with little success. So today they are pretty much forced to win, as the directors also gave the players an ultimatum. Their solid home form (4-2-1, 17 goals scored) should also give them an edge against a tricky Liga de Loja. The visitors have been performing well above expectations, sitting on 6th place, just 4 points behind the leader. They look like a solid team most of the times, but when visiting the more serious teams, they usually fail (lost 0-2 at Emelec and 1-4 at Deportivo Quito... still they were a tough nut to crack, as Emelec scored in the last 15 minutes, while against Deportivo they had 1-0 and lost only after they saw a red card). However, today Quito should be able to put a lot of pressure on them. They are simply better and have more quality, so I don't expect them to fail today. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

A lot of disappointment in the Cristal camp. They have a great team, and were being dubbed one of the main contenders for the league title. And while the season is still long, and nothing is decided yet, their recent performances have been far from impressive. 4th place for them, 5 points behind leaders Cesar Vallejo, but what's really worrying is their form, having won a single match from the last 7 they played (it's true that they also had some tough matches, against Cesar Vallejo, Alianza Lima, San Martin, and two visits to high altitude teams... but that shouldn't be an excuse for them). So today they will try to bounce right back, otherwise all hell could break loose. And in front of them will be Cienciano, a traditionally poor traveling team, that has 'lived up' to that name this season as well (0-1-4 as visitors, with goal difference of 2-8). Even their general form is bad, as they only have 2 wins in the last 10 matches. So, with Cristal in pretty much a must win situation, and with a poor Cienciano in front of them, I can't see past a home win for this match. And it should be a big one. GL!

Cristal (-1.25 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON