Atletico Nacional - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Two different motivations for this match. Atletico Nacional can seal their qualification with a win today (even with a draw), and also take a great opportunity to win the group, while Penarol, regardless of how they do in the last two rounds, are already eliminated from the competition, having just 1 point in 4 rounds. So there are totally different moods for these teams. Then, there is also the squad issue: some players of Penarol are injured, while others will be rested in order to have them fresh for the closing stages of the league. In total, 6 players that can be considered regulars have been left in Montevideo, including: the goalkeeper Carini, Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Dario Rodriguez. And if we keep in mind that coach Da Silva said this match is an extra-match (one that doesn't fit in their schedule anymore), it's clear there isn't too much motivation or hope for the team. Atletico is going through a bad moment in the local league, but that hasn't put a dent in their Libertadores run... They showed great moments in this competition, being still undefeated and having 12 goals scored in 4 games. In the league, they are on a 7 match run without a win, but as I said, here they should have a different motivation, and a full team is expected, including striker Pabon, who returns from an injury. The handicap is set about right, but if Nacional returns to their regular Libertadores form, they should have no problem with a 'damaged' Penarol. GL!

Atletico (-1 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Zamora - Arsenal Sarandi

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Both teams are 99% out of the competition, although they still have some theoretical chances (but it all depends on Boca, and I doubt they won't beat Zamora at home in the last round). So there will probably be little motivation here, especially for Arsenal. Apparently, they favor the league more, that's why they will have to do without several players that are normally considered regulars. Burdisso (31/5), Leguizamon (17/6), Lopez (26/2), Ortiz (22/4), Carbonero (13/1) and Zelaya (20/6) have been left behind in Argentina, while Nervo (21/0) is doubtful. So they'll go into this match with a weakend squad, and with little to none motivation. Zamora, on the other hand, should still have some motivation, for several reasons. The small teams are usually extra-motivated when playing against high-profile Argentinian or Brazilian teams, so even though they are practically out, I still think they will fight hard for at least a point here. They'll defend with 10 men probably, as they usually do, and this time they could do it well, as Arsenal will probably suffer in offense, and from the lack of motivation. Only small stakes here, as Zamora is still a very poor team, and in poor form (lost all of their last 6 matches), but they should have some chances here. GL!

Zamora (+0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Guarani - Carapegua

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nice value on this match, probably a product of Guarani's last results. And while it's true that they lost their last 2 matches, we also have to look against whom they've played, and everyone must agree that losing to Olimpia and Cerro Porteno is nothing to be ashamed of, especially since both defeats were by a minimum. Other than that, Guarani's style is still a very pleasant one, nice to watch, and they should also return to winning ways now that they'll face some of the weaker teams again. Carapegua is in a very good run of form, undefeated in their last 5 games, despite playing against some top caliber teams, like Nacional (2-1) or Libertad (1-1). However, this form won't last forever for such a small team, and Guarani should be good enough (and focused enough, since they don't have any Libertadores plans, unlike Nacional and Libertad) to end Carapegua's dreams. They've already managed to win 1-0 away at Sol, and to trash Luqueno 3-1 at home, and both those teams are pretty much around the same value as Carapegua. Motivation should be high after their last 2 defeats, and Carapegua looks like a good point to start winning again. GL!

Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Liverpool - Cerro

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

After a perfect start of the season, Liverpool finally lost a match last week, when they were beaten at Defensor Sporting 2-4. Despite this loss, they are still sitting on the top of the standings in this Clausura, so their situation is still better than anyone expected, and last week's loss can't be condemnable, as Defensor are definitely one of the top teams in the league. So today it will be the moment of truth for Liverpool... if they win, they will prove to everyone that indeed they are title challengers. If they lose, they will also lose all credibility. Allthough besides Defensor they haven't played any of the better teams, their results still can't be disconsidered, and Cerro is pretty much at the same level as the rest of the teams that Liverpool faced so far. Losing their last 2 away games certainly won't give Cerro too much hope for today, especially since they conceded 3 goals from both Nacional and Wanderers. And, same as Liverpool, their only wins came against some of the weakest teams in the league, Cerrito and Rentistas, so they still need to prove they can take on the big teams. I have faith in Liverpool, as I consider them to be quite a good team, and hopefully, they'll prove that last week's result was nothing more than a stumble. GL!

Liverpool (-0.5 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Nacional - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The handicap is a bit bigger than what I had hoped for (I was seeing -0.75 in my fantasies), so while there's almost value in this bet, it's also one with slim to none chances of failing, as anything other than a home win would be a huge surprise. The class diference between these teams is obvious even if we only look at the standings. Nacional is fighting for the top spots, sitting on 3rd currently, 5 points behind the leaders, while Rubio, despite their high pre-season expectations, are only on 9th place, with 10 points from 9 matches. The hosts are really playing well this season, especially at home, where they have 5 consecutive victories in the league. The full squad has been called up for today's game, so there are very big chances to see their best 11 on the pitch, despite their Libertadores duties from next week. Meanwhile, Rubio are in a slump of form, managing to take only 4 points from their last 7 games, and even those points aren't impressive, drawing away at Luqueno and beating Independiente at home. As visitors, they haven't won a match in 4 tries, having a total of 11 goals conceded in those 4 games. They are simply poor this season, and can't really see how they will be able to take something from today's game. At least a one-goal win for Nacional is highly expected, so this bet looks very safe. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST