Jaguares Chiapas - Junior Barranquilla

Copa Libertadores

Jaguares Chiapas is one strange team. Last place in the standings in the Mexican league with one round to go, lost, only one win in their last 8 league matches, but still they managed to qualify from their Libertadores group, mainly because Emelec are idiots and couldn't win in Bolivia. Because Jaguares won all of their home matches, but lost all of their away ones, including a 1-2 loss in Bolivia, against second division team Jorge Wilstermann, a tea, which they've barely beaten in the first round, 2-0 following some late goals. So why are they such favorites against a strong Colombian team (that managed to win their group with Gremio), is beyong my comprehension. Junior is obviously the much better team (in fact, I see Jaguares as the poorest team to reach this stage), and indeed, playing away from home in Mexico can't be an easy job, no matter how poor Jaguares are. But, I expected the odds to be more balanced, maybe even with Junior set as small favorites, so in this case, I see some very nice value on the Colombians. +0.75 is close to a gift in my opinion, as it gives us a 'safe zone' even in case of an unexpected Mexican victory, but I honestly don't see this happening. Junior should win this match, but a draw won't be that bad either, so this handicap is a must-take. GL!

Junior (+0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Espoli - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Liga de Quito is passing through a great moment in both competitions where it is featuring. They won their group in Copa Libertadores, and after they're 1-0 mid-week win against Cuenca, they are also topping the tables in Serie A. Things couldn't get any better for them, but in the next 2 weeks, they will have to play the first knock-out round of Libertadores, and it's going to be a tough task for them, as they will face Velez Sarsfield, a team that is certainly no push-over. So their main focus goes to Libertadores, obviously, as there are still many rounds to play in the league. Therefore, a lot of first team-regulars will be rested tonight against Espoli, as the next 3 matches are dubbed to be far more important: the 2 matches against the Argentinians, and the Derby of Quito, against Deportivo. Espoli may be on the last place in the league, but in their last couple of matches they showed some signs of revival, drawing with El Nacional, before securing a surprise win away at Manta. Another interesting fact is that they are usually a tough nut for LDU to crack, and lately they have either lost by the minimum, either they haven't lost at all. Last match was played in Quito... LDU played with reserves and won 2-0, but only after a red card for Espoli, with the second goal scored in the 90th minute. Liga had a tough match then, and it surely won't be easy today either. Small stake though, as Espoli isn't at the bottom of the table for nothing. GL!

Espoli (+0.75 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10

Result: 0-0, WON

Libertad - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

There should be no debate over who is superior in class here, as Libertad has better individual players than San Luis, and also performs better as a team. But what is important here is motivation. Libertad has comfortably won the group, after a great run of results, but things are not done for them yet. With 3 more points tonight, they will have 14, and they will pretty much secure second place in the aggregate tables of the group winners, thus assuring they would play one of the weaker teams that finished as runner-ups. And just to show how serious they are, they rested some of the regulars in the league, in order to keep them fresh for this final match of the group. They might be in poor form in the league, without a win for 4 matches, but 2 of them were against Guarani and Nacional, and those matches are never easy to win, while in the other 2 there were some rotations. San Luis is in an even worse form, and they've managed to win only a single game from the last 14 they played, and despite still having chances to qualify, I don't see them capable of doing it, as they need to win in Paraguay, and also San Martin not to win. They are also missing a few important players, and if we add that to their trip from Mexico, and also the fact that they used the regulars in the weekend, I think we have a clear winner in Libertad. Small stakes though. GL!

Libertad (-0.5 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Liverpool Montevideo - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

A great opportunity for Penarol here, to take back the top spot of the standings, as 3 points here would see them tie Nacional on points, while also having a game in hand, so they'll be back in pole-position for the final of the championship. But, same as with Nacional yesterday, the odds for away win are a joke, and even though Penarol is obviously the better team, Liverpool can surprise (and we've seen a big upset last night, when River won 4-2 with Nacional). So I see the over as the best choice again. Liverpool is gunning for a place in a Continental Cup, but those places are quite far away from them, and only 3 points tonight would keep them with hopes. They will try to exploit any tiredness from Penarol's side, and they can be a real torture to any defense, as they have 2 very good strikers (Emiliano Alfaro and Maureen Franco), who, in a good day, can score against any opposition. Penarol might be a bit down after losing at home in Libertadores, and also losing the top spot of the group (which could produce some negative ramifications later in the tournament), but I'm sure they won't let the chance to catch Nacional slip away from their hands. Moreover, the last 7 matches played between Penarol and Liverpool ended with at least 3 goals, so I'm going to stick with this trend. GL!

over 2.75 @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 2-4, WON

El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

This is the bet of the day in my opinion, and I will thankfully take the nice odds on El Nacional. Cuenca's bounce-back has already begun, after a great start of the season, they are now on a run of 4 matches without a win. In their defense, they did play with Emelec (twice) and LDU, but they also had the first leg with El Nacional, at home, which they managed to draw in the 94th minute, taking a pretty much undeserved point. That's why I expected El Nacional to be somehow bigger favorites today, but it's much better this way. El Nacional is in good form now, having not lost in their previous 5 games, including a winning run on their home ground of 3 matches (Independiente, Emelec and Espoli), without a single goal conceded. For Cuenca, along their drop in form, there are also other problems, as they will be missing 3 key players of the team: central defenders Castro and Ledesma are suspended, same as defensive midfielder Godoy, all of them being very important pieces of the team, that will let the team very vulnerable to El Nacional's attacks. Head-to-head is also encouraging the hosts, as they haven't lost in their last 6 matches against Cuenca (last 5 were draws though), while at home, in the last 10 years, they have only lost 3 times, from 22 matches played. GL!

El Nacional (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 5/10

Result: 4-2, WON