Copa Libertadores 2013, Preliminary Round
So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.
Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!
Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
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Jan 25, 2013
Dec 16, 2012
Corinthians - Chelsea
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Final
My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!
Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!
Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Al Ahly - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Third-place play-off
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Dec 15, 2012
Sportivo Carapegua - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Sportivo Carapegua is the team with the best chances of remaining in the league, as they depend only on themselves. Even though they are currently sitting on the last place in the league, with a win they will leapfrog both Tacuary and Independiente, as they have been playing in the first division for only one year, therefore their average can increase a lot with a win. And a win is their only chance here, as a draw or a loss will condemn them to relegate, once again without having to look at the others' results. Squad-wise, Olimpia is taking this match seriously, as they will be using pretty much their best squad, with only 2 changes. But the big question mark is their motivation. They don't have any chances to win the title, and they are looking good as the best classified non-champion team in the general standings (5 points ahead of Nacional, meaning that they can only lose the Libertadores place is Nacional or Guarani become champions - meaning that Libertad has to lose at home against Luqueno... either way, there is nothing that Olimpia can do about it). Carapegua is a poor team, there's no denying that, but they need this win badly, and recently, Olimpia has been almost just as poor. And this nice increase in odds gives us a good bet here. GL!
Carapegua (+0.25 AH) @ 2.01, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
Sportivo Carapegua is the team with the best chances of remaining in the league, as they depend only on themselves. Even though they are currently sitting on the last place in the league, with a win they will leapfrog both Tacuary and Independiente, as they have been playing in the first division for only one year, therefore their average can increase a lot with a win. And a win is their only chance here, as a draw or a loss will condemn them to relegate, once again without having to look at the others' results. Squad-wise, Olimpia is taking this match seriously, as they will be using pretty much their best squad, with only 2 changes. But the big question mark is their motivation. They don't have any chances to win the title, and they are looking good as the best classified non-champion team in the general standings (5 points ahead of Nacional, meaning that they can only lose the Libertadores place is Nacional or Guarani become champions - meaning that Libertad has to lose at home against Luqueno... either way, there is nothing that Olimpia can do about it). Carapegua is a poor team, there's no denying that, but they need this win badly, and recently, Olimpia has been almost just as poor. And this nice increase in odds gives us a good bet here. GL!
Carapegua (+0.25 AH) @ 2.01, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
Cerro Porteno - Tacuary
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I know the odds dropped a lot for this game, but I still think it's worth a shot. Tacuary is in a very uncomfortable position here, despite being above the relegation line. The thing is that even if they win, they can still relegate is Independiente and Carapegua also win, since they'll have a better average number of points. So they really need a miracle. But if we look at Cerro Porteno, they look like they're throwing the match away. Most of the first team players have already been allowed to go on vacation, and for today's match they will use some less used reserves, and some players from the youth team. That doesn't change the fact that Tacuary is a poor team, but it does show a big lack of interest from Cerro's side. The most that Tacuary can do today is to win and wait, and they should be able to do it. Even if they relegate, at least they'll be able to do it with their heads held high (and if they lose by a minimum, we'll get half of the stake back). And the thing that convinced me to go on this bet even at these odds, is Tacuary's recent form, as they have lost just 3 of their last 10 games, and this record includes a couple of 2-2 draws as visitors at Libertad and Olimpia, plus a 2-0 win with title hopefuls Guarani. GL!
Tacuary (+0.75 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 5-1, LOST
I know the odds dropped a lot for this game, but I still think it's worth a shot. Tacuary is in a very uncomfortable position here, despite being above the relegation line. The thing is that even if they win, they can still relegate is Independiente and Carapegua also win, since they'll have a better average number of points. So they really need a miracle. But if we look at Cerro Porteno, they look like they're throwing the match away. Most of the first team players have already been allowed to go on vacation, and for today's match they will use some less used reserves, and some players from the youth team. That doesn't change the fact that Tacuary is a poor team, but it does show a big lack of interest from Cerro's side. The most that Tacuary can do today is to win and wait, and they should be able to do it. Even if they relegate, at least they'll be able to do it with their heads held high (and if they lose by a minimum, we'll get half of the stake back). And the thing that convinced me to go on this bet even at these odds, is Tacuary's recent form, as they have lost just 3 of their last 10 games, and this record includes a couple of 2-2 draws as visitors at Libertad and Olimpia, plus a 2-0 win with title hopefuls Guarani. GL!
Tacuary (+0.75 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 5-1, LOST
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