Cerro Porteno - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Very similar pick to the one from last week, as once again we will go against Cerro Porteno. They have 0 points after the first 5 rounds, so they obviously have zero chances of advancing. Everybody is aware of that, so for the second straight week, they will be fielding a reserve team in Libertadores. Last week they have rested all of their regulars, and were trashed 1-5 by Real Garcilaso. Of course, the high altitude from Cuzco also played a big role, especially in the second half when Cerro's players colapsed, but the overall impression of the team was bad. And for this match, the coach will pretty much repeat the same team, using just reserve players and youngsters (only Nanni can be considered a former regular). Meanwhile, Tolima comes to Paraguay guns blazing, as they have the qualification on the line. They need to win, and they also need to hope that Santa Fe will beat Garcilaso as well, making it a Colombian 1-2. But before they can think of the other game, they will need to secure the 3 points here. They will have a couple of important players unavailable, so their job won't be easy without the likes of Leichtweis (9 app/4 goals in the local league + 4 more goals in Libertadores) and Roberto Merino (6/2). But they've proved they can play even without them, so I trust they will be able to deliver now as well. They are in a must-win situation, against an unexperienced team, so I expect them to prevail. GL!

Tolima (-0.25 AH) @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST

Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal. GL!

Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Nacional -Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Real Garcilaso - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now.  They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Olimpia - Cerro Porteno PF

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!

Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST