Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
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Jul 31, 2013
Jul 30, 2013
Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Jul 21, 2013
Deportivo Quito - El Nacional
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
Jul 18, 2013
Olimpia - Atletico MG
Copa Libertadores 2013, Final
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Jul 11, 2013
Cajamarca - Universitario
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
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