Argentina Primera Division, Apertura
I'm going for the surprise here. Velez need to win and hope that Estudiantes doesn't, in order to win the title, or at least to force a deciding match between them. But in South America, unlike in most European countries, the rest of the teams don't bend over in the last round, and don't let the title hopefuls on a free run to the title. And we've seen this over and over again (Apertura 2009 - Banfield and Newell's were fighting for the title, and both teams lost in the last round; Clausura 2010 - Estudiantes drew at home against relegated Rosario Central, in the penultimate match of the season, gifting the title to Argentinos). So why can't we see something similar today? Especially since both teams are having very tough games. Racing is a very tough to beat team, especially when they are playing at home. They have a great offensive trio, Moreno-Hauche-Bieler, and they are scoring goals like crazy (all of them are expected to start). Of course, Velez's offense is even better, with Silva and Martinez topping the top scorers table, but if Estudiantes takes an early start, I seriously doubt their motivation. Thei away form also isn't as frightening as it should, so I think they'll have a lot of fighting to do. Odds are set like this only based on Velez's 'need to win', but in Argentina, that need to win usually means squat, and Racing not to lose looks like a nice bet. GL!
Racing (+0.5 AH) @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-2, LOST
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