Dec 6, 2012

Tigre - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana 2012, Final

Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!

Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Dec 2, 2012

Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

During midweek, Emelec lost all chances to qualify for the final and challenge Barcelona for the title, so today they will be resting several of their regular players, in order to keep them safe and fit for the 2nd place play-off, to be played next week.From the reports, it looks like at least 6 regulars will be out, and their places will be filled by very little used players. Cuenca went through some financial issues earlier this week, but right now everything seems to have been taken care of, so they are ready to face Emelec. And they also have something to play for today. In order to qualify for a continental competition, they will need to be among the top 5 in the aggregate standings (4th and 5th will dispute a play-off), and they can only do that by winning today, as they are 2 points behind Loja, who have a very tough match against Independiente. So they can't afford not to win this match, and since Emelec will present a much weaker team than usual, this should go well as a home win (with an insurance in case of a draw). GL!

Cuenca DNB @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON