U Catolica - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

LDU Quito are still favorites, or at least on par, against pretty much everyone in the Ecuadorian league except the big guns. That's obviously a sign that the bookies are setting the odds based on the team's name, and they also expect them to get back into form sooner rather than later. But from what I've seen, that seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. LDU are playing without too many ideas, and even the players and the coach agree that there isn't too much you can ask from the team currently. Their famous offensive game is no more, as they are constantly struggling to create danger for the opposition. That's why we have a very rare statistic, with them having the second worst offense in the league. Their main focus is to destroy the plays, instead of trying to build some fluid actions. Worth mentioning: they only scored 1 goal in 6 away games!!! Catolica is one of the better teams in the league, and are also pleasant to the eye, constantly trying to get forward as soon and as efficiently as possible. They won't have it easy, that's for sure, as it is very difficult to play against a team bent on destroying good football, but they do have what it takes to win against LDU. They won the last 3 games against LDU, who only got worse as time went by, so they have a good platform to build on. GL!

Catolica DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Emelec - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Despite what the table is showing, with 7 places and 8 points separating them, this surely won’t be a walk in the park for Emelec. Their packed schedule is bound to catch up with them sooner rather than later, and there are already complaints about fatigue, after a tough match with Leon and a very long voyage to and from Mexico. So I’m quite sure that there will be some players who will be rested, because they won’t be able to give their 100% anyway. LDU Quito are still in reconstruction, so it was expected that they would struggle this season as well. However, they look quite solid defensive-wise, and they’ve only conceded 2 goals in 4 visits. And there will definitely be some extra-motivation for them in this derby, so I really don’t see the hosts going for an easy win. Emelec only won 3 of their last 8 games with LDU, and none of those victories was by more than a goal’s margin, and I don’t see that changing here. I’m eyeing a draw here, but it’s nice to have some insurance in case of a narrow Emelec win. GL!

LDU (+0.75 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10
Result: 3-0, LOST

LDU Loja - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I fancy Barcelona quite a lot this season, and even though the start has been rather difficult, I'm counting on a constant increase in form. They've made some good signings during the off-season, so I'm really expecting them to challenge Emelec for the title (they are pretty much the only ones that can do it), and we should only mention the signings of Laurito and Nieto (the top scorers of the 2013 season - they have more than 50 goals between themselves) to know that they mean business. And today will be the first match when they both start as regulars, so I'm obviously confident and excited that there will be some goals. However, the back looked shaky throughout their first two matches, and Loja is a team that can really hurt you if they find the spaces. Both their matches this season ended with several goals, and I'm counting on the talented Fabio Renato to pull something off here (Ivan Kaviedes can also play, after serving a suspension, but he isn't announced as a starter). Loja always played offensively, so I'm definitely expecting some goals here, especially since last year, these two teams had three over 2.5 games from four matches played. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

Olmedo - Barcelona SC

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Barcelona (-0.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

Manta - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Manta DNB @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Real Garcilaso - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Final

Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Universitario - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Final

Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Barcelona - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!

LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Macara - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!

Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Deportivo Cuenca - Manta

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!

Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Cienciano - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!

Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!

Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON

Guarani - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!

Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Nacional - Sp. Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Deportivo Capiata - Sp. Carapegua

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!

Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Cerro Porteno - General Diaz

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!

Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID

Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Sol de America - Cerro Porteno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!

Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON