May 23, 2012

El Nacional - Macara

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I've been waiting for a long time for the perfect moment to bet on El Nacional, and I think that moment finally came. I know that their recent run of for may be off-putting (without a win in 5 games, and with 3 defeats from those 5 matches), but they are bound to recover sooner or later. They are not such a bad team as their results and league position suggests, and if we look at their opponents in the last 5 rounds, we can see Emelec, LDU Quito and Deportivo Quito, plus Cuenca, another team in the top half of the table. So no one expected miracles from them. But now, they will face what should be a much easier team, Macar, and they are in desperate need of a win. Coach Vizuete is rumoured to be safe on his position, but I doubt that those in charge will have more patience if he fails today as well. They will miss forward Preciado (10/3) and defender Narvaez (8/0), but this should not matter too much. Much more important absences could have Macara (who don't have a very wide squad), and they will miss for sure their regular goalkeeper Mora (13), while forward Guerra (7/4) and midfielder Esterilla (13/1) are doubtful. They are without a win in all their away games this season, so seriously, if El Nacional wants to get back on track, today is the day to do it. GL!

El Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON

May 21, 2012

LDU Loja - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

My first thought for this match was of course to skip it, but the recent odds movement is ridiculous, and under this circumstances I just can't stay away from this game. The asian lines opened with a -0.25 for Loja, with odds around 1.85-1.90, and now we can get an even better price for the DNB, so no matter the outcome, we have value here. And other than the names of the teams, I can't see any reason for the odds. Loja is a small team, but they have performing well this season (4th place currently, but with a win today they will be tied on points with the leaders), and they also have a nice game flow, pleasant to watch. No important absences for them, and even more, they welcome back defender Vera (13) after a suspension. Also, they are undefeated in the last 6 matches, in which they've beaten Emelec and made an away draw with LDU. Deportivo Quito is indeed a big name, but this season they have mostly struggled, especially since they also had a tough and tireing Libertadores campaign. They did win clearly their last match, 3-0 with El Nacional, but I still don't trust them enough. Also, they will miss today some important players: regular goalkeeper Elizaga and midfielders Olivo (11) and Alex Bolanos (9/1). Loja are a strong team, and they could surprise once again tonight. GL!

LDU Loja DNB @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON

May 20, 2012

Tecnico Universitario - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Hard times for Emelec. They had a long and exhausting season, and even after their knock-out from Copa Libertadores, they still can not find a breath, as they also had some postponed matches to take care of them. So a lot of players are feeling really tired, and this also lead to some injuries: defender Carlos Quinonez (3 appearances) and forward Mondaini (13/2 goals). But the problems are even bigger, as Emelec also has a lot of players suspended: defender Bagui (12), midfielder Pedro Quinonez (13) and offensive midfielder Valencia (12/5). So that makes 4 key players that won't be able to play tonight, and a lot of tiredness for the rest of the regulars, and Tecnico Universitario might be able to take advantage of this situation. They are second from bottom, so they need points as air, and even though their performances are usually poor, at home they can keep some close results (made a draw with LDU, and one with Barcelona, 2-3 months ago). They don't have important absences, and if they can keep their focus and play a smart game, they might be able to steal some points from a decimated Emelec. GL!

Tecnico U (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10
Result: 2-3, LOST