Jul 6, 2013

Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!

Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Jul 1, 2013

Barcelona - Quevedo

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Jun 30, 2013

U Catolica - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.

Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST