Copa Sudamericana 2012
I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite
unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they
managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away
goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the
qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned
previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very
short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty
much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The
fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so
far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in
the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents
(Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same
caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team.
Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables
go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had
enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a
good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the
Uruguayans snatching it. GL!
Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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Sep 21, 2012
Sep 20, 2012
LDU Quito - Macara
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
After a disastrous First Stage, LDU Quito are once again near the top of the table, as they are looking to make thier fans forget the first part of the year. And they are in a good moment, as they are undefeated for the last 3 matches, winning against LDU Loja and El Nacional, and also recording a spirited 2-2 draw last week, away at Emelec. Defender Luna (26/0) is the only important absence for them, as they recover forward Bieler, who will just be on the bench. Their attack is working fine lately, even without Bieler, as they have scored 7 goals in the last 3 matches, but their defense is having plenty of issues, receiving 4 in those matches. Luna's absence could increase their defensive worries. Macar is flying very high in this stage, level on points with the leaders Olmedo and Barcelona. Away from home they drop their standard of performance, but they can still put up a good fight, that's how they won at Independiente by 3-0. Other than that, they lost all matches, but still managed to score 3 goals, the exception being their trashing at the hands of Barcelona, 0-4. I think they can score here as well, as they have a good offensive system, and with LDU's recent form, goals should be coming. And I'm choosing this bet over the handicap, as a 2-1 home win has good chances of happening. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 1-2, WON
After a disastrous First Stage, LDU Quito are once again near the top of the table, as they are looking to make thier fans forget the first part of the year. And they are in a good moment, as they are undefeated for the last 3 matches, winning against LDU Loja and El Nacional, and also recording a spirited 2-2 draw last week, away at Emelec. Defender Luna (26/0) is the only important absence for them, as they recover forward Bieler, who will just be on the bench. Their attack is working fine lately, even without Bieler, as they have scored 7 goals in the last 3 matches, but their defense is having plenty of issues, receiving 4 in those matches. Luna's absence could increase their defensive worries. Macar is flying very high in this stage, level on points with the leaders Olmedo and Barcelona. Away from home they drop their standard of performance, but they can still put up a good fight, that's how they won at Independiente by 3-0. Other than that, they lost all matches, but still managed to score 3 goals, the exception being their trashing at the hands of Barcelona, 0-4. I think they can score here as well, as they have a good offensive system, and with LDU's recent form, goals should be coming. And I'm choosing this bet over the handicap, as a 2-1 home win has good chances of happening. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Sep 19, 2012
Emelec - Olimpia
Copa Libertadores 2012
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Sep 17, 2012
U San Martin - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
After San Martin returned to the first division, a couple of rounds after the start of the championship, they immediately made an impact, with some very good results against the top teams. However, that quickly changed, and now they find themselves near the bottom of the table. Their form isn't great either, with just one win in their last 7 games, but we have to look at their opponents from those matches as well: lost against the leaders Cristal and Cesar Vallejo as visitors, and against Universitario (all of them were derbies), drew in the altitude from Huanuco with Leon, and at home against high-flying Real Garcilaso, plus another draw at home against second placed (in their group) Jose Galvez. So really, all of them have been very tough games. And it should get a bit easier today, as Cienciano are awful travelers, with a record of 1-2-13. They lost the last 8 consecutive away matches, with a goal difference of 3-19. This isn't very unusual for them, as they are traditionally poor travelers, but San Martin do have to end their poor recent run. I think it will be a relief for them to play against Cienciano after so many hard matches, and we have a nice line to try (it would have been around -1.25 if San Martin would have been in good form). GL!
San Martin (-0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
After San Martin returned to the first division, a couple of rounds after the start of the championship, they immediately made an impact, with some very good results against the top teams. However, that quickly changed, and now they find themselves near the bottom of the table. Their form isn't great either, with just one win in their last 7 games, but we have to look at their opponents from those matches as well: lost against the leaders Cristal and Cesar Vallejo as visitors, and against Universitario (all of them were derbies), drew in the altitude from Huanuco with Leon, and at home against high-flying Real Garcilaso, plus another draw at home against second placed (in their group) Jose Galvez. So really, all of them have been very tough games. And it should get a bit easier today, as Cienciano are awful travelers, with a record of 1-2-13. They lost the last 8 consecutive away matches, with a goal difference of 3-19. This isn't very unusual for them, as they are traditionally poor travelers, but San Martin do have to end their poor recent run. I think it will be a relief for them to play against Cienciano after so many hard matches, and we have a nice line to try (it would have been around -1.25 if San Martin would have been in good form). GL!
San Martin (-0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
Sep 16, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
The Liguilla has started, and in their group, Real Garcilaso are big favorites. Their home form has been brilliant so far, with a record of 15-1-0, and a win today could see them take back the leader's seat. And keep in mind that they are a newly promoted team. And exactly for that reason, I have some doubts they will be able to go all the way to the wire. And today they will have to face a team with more experienced, who already played a final of the league and also played in a continental competition. They haven't been enjoying the best season in 2012, as they are far away from the top places, but they are still a tough nut to crack, and even if they lose, they do it after a hard-fought match, and usually by the minimum difference. They haven't won for the last 9 consecutive away games, where they only managed to get one point, but all the losses came by just one goal, regardless of who they were playing against. No altitude advantage for Real today, and Leon could pose some problems here... despite the lack of results they are still strong, and as I said before, I have my doubts Real can challenge the title until the last breath. This line should be tried, but just with small stakes, as Leon's form isn't encouraging at all. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.04, 2/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
The Liguilla has started, and in their group, Real Garcilaso are big favorites. Their home form has been brilliant so far, with a record of 15-1-0, and a win today could see them take back the leader's seat. And keep in mind that they are a newly promoted team. And exactly for that reason, I have some doubts they will be able to go all the way to the wire. And today they will have to face a team with more experienced, who already played a final of the league and also played in a continental competition. They haven't been enjoying the best season in 2012, as they are far away from the top places, but they are still a tough nut to crack, and even if they lose, they do it after a hard-fought match, and usually by the minimum difference. They haven't won for the last 9 consecutive away games, where they only managed to get one point, but all the losses came by just one goal, regardless of who they were playing against. No altitude advantage for Real today, and Leon could pose some problems here... despite the lack of results they are still strong, and as I said before, I have my doubts Real can challenge the title until the last breath. This line should be tried, but just with small stakes, as Leon's form isn't encouraging at all. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.04, 2/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
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