Jul 14, 2012

Cobresol - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Newcomers Real Garcilaso are the new leaders of the Primera Division of Peru, a great achievement for them, and it will be very interesting to see if they manage to keep this position until the end of the season. But that will be a very hard task, especially since when playing away from home, they are a totally different team. As a comparison, we have their incredible 11-0-0 home record, against their 1-6-4 away record. Still solid, for Peruvian standards, as they only lost 4 games, but with just 1 win, it shows clearly that they are traveling defensive-minded, with a draw as their objective. Meanwhile, Cobresol are simply awful, sitting on the last place in the standings, after a run of 6 games without a win. I don't expect much improvements (especially since last round I went against them with a -1.25 handicap), and they are 90% relegated at the moment, but with Garcilaso's timid approach of their away games, Cobresol should be more than able to snatch a draw here. I would have preferred the +0.5 line, but since that's not available, the +0.25 should work as well, at some nice odds. GL!

Cobresol (+0.25 AH) @ 2.23, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-WON

Jul 11, 2012

Leon de Huanuco - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Last time I made a bet on Leon I lost, but this looks like a good opportunity to get that money back. There isn't much to say about them, as they are definitely not the team they were in the last 2 years, sitting at the middle of the table on 9th place, 12 points behind the league leaders. And their indestructible home fortress has also been breached, as they only won 4 of their 10 home games. But even so, they should not be underestimated, and I'm sure they are bound to come back. And today is a great chance to do that, as they are facing the worst travelers in the league, Cobresol, who have only won 1 game as visitors, losing all the other 9. The fact that the match will be played in the high altitude of Huanuco won't help them either, and so far they've lost all the matches played at altitude this season, with a goal difference of 2-9. They look pretty much hopeless, and I don't see how they can save themselves from relegation, so this is the perfect moment for Leon to bounce back. GL!

Leon (-1.25 AH) @ 1.95, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON