Apr 26, 2012

Bolivar - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Two offensive teams will face each other tonight, in the high altitude of La Paz. Santos has tons of more quality compared to the Bolivian team (Neymar, Elano, Renteria, Borges, etc), no one doubts that, but the hosts also have one huge advantage, in the form of the high altitude. Santos already played in La Paz this year, losing against The Strongest, 1-2, in the last minute of play. They suffered indeed from the altitude, but even so, they lost that match on their own, missing around 5-6 sitters in the second half. Hopefully, they will improve their finishing record today, because Bolivar isn't known for their strong defensive performances. Even more, the Bolivians know that their only chance to qualify is to take a good result to Brazil, so they will use an offensive formation, with 3 forwards, and since they should also have better skills than The Strongest, goals should come (4 of their 6 group matches ended with at least 3 goals, including here all 3 of their home matches). The line should've been set at 2.75, so this bet also has a bit value (had more, but the odds dropped lately). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Apr 22, 2012

Macara - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Same match was played 1 week ago, in Quito, and LDU won it comfortably with 3-0, stating their superiority over Macara (if anyone was actually doubting that). Now, they'll play in Ambato, and even though it won't be that easy for LDU as in Quito, they should still win this match. Macara showed nothing last week, were never a match for the giants. Two of their regulars are also suspended for this game, and since their squad doesn't have too much depth, this could prove to be a serious blow for them. For LDU, the only unavailable player will be Edison Mendez, who is suspended as well, but he should be well replaced by David Quiroz. Other than that, coach Bauza should have no other surprises in the starting line-up. Also worth noting is that LDU has 4 consecutives win with Macara, and haven't lost for 9 games, and I don't see any reasons why they should do it today. GL!

LDU (-0.25 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 0-2, WON