Sep 8, 2012

Colombia - Uruguay

World Cup 2014 Qualfiers

Both these teams have been underish lately, but I expect that to change sooner, rather than later. And also, due to this fact, we have a very nice goal line that we can try for some medium stakes. Uruguay traveled to Colombia with their usual strong squad: we can see players that are acting in the strongest leagues from Europe, like Cristian Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Arevalo Rios, Forlan or Cavani. Suarez is suspended for this match, and it will be an important absence, but I have faith that Forlan and Cavani will be able to do the job, supported from behind by Rodriguez. Colombia also has some very good players, the most famous being Falcao, and we have seen recently that Falcao can do wonders all by himself. So we have two teams with some incredible offensive players meeting each other. As I said previously, they are usually underish teams: Colombia has 8 matches with under 2.5 goals from their last 10 games, while Uruguay has 6 unders from the last 10 games. But even so, Colombia managed to score in 8 of their last 10, while Uruguay did the same in 9 matches. I would definitely expect a minimum of 2 goals in this match, especially since the statistics are not so bad if we take out the friendly matches, so it's well worth a risk on this bet. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.82, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Sep 2, 2012

Penarol - River Plate

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second round of the Uruguayan league sees Penarol coming after a thriller of a first round. They were leading Fenix, and it looked like they were in control and would have had an easy job. Fenix drew the match before HT, after being 1-3 down, and managed to score the winner in the second half. So Penarol must surely be still hurt after that match, so they should be more focused to get the points today. There's no doubt that they have a much better and superior team compared to most of the other teams in the league, but they will have to work on their defensive game, and on their concentration. River comes after a 1-0 win against newly-promoted Juventud, after a less than impressive match. They have a very young squad, and I don't think they can have too many expectations this season. From the 19-man squad they have selected for the game against Penarol, 10 players are coming from the youth system, and have less than 20 years. Also, a few of them will make their debut today in the first division, while other will play their second match, having debuted last week. So I expect to see a team without experience, which at least tonight, should be an easy prey for the Uruguayan giants. GL!

Penarol (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST