Copa Sudamericana 2012
Odds dropped a lot for this bet, but it's still worth taking, as I can't see anything past a home win here. Cerro Largo had solid performances in the Uruguayan league, and that's why they surprisingly took a Sudamericana spot, but those performances should be long gone by now. They have lost a lot of important players, pretty much the core of the team, as 5 key players have left the team. Their replacements are still a big unknown, but I'm confident they won't live up to the expectations, and they still need a lot of time to blend in. Another huge factor here is the altitude, as Aurora plays at over 2700 meters above the sea level. None of the players from Cerro Largo's team has ever played at high altitude, so they don't have first hand experience of it's effects. And this could have a huge impact on the game, especially since Cerro Largo will only arrive at the stadium a few hours before kick-off. Aurora is usually strong at home even against teams that know how to handle the altitude, so I can't really see them not winning this game. GL!
Aurora (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10Result: 2-1, HALF-WON