Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Here I changes my bet in the last moment, as my first lean when I saw the match-up was a DNB on Leon, hoping for some nice odds. But I was also counting on the fact that Huancayo will rest some regulars, as they have some Sudamericana duty next week. However, that is not the case, and they seem keen to avenge their 2-5 trashing from the last round of Descentralizado. They will field best available line-up (GK Flores – 24 matches and DF Farfan – 25/0 are suspended after being sent off last match), and will also welcome back some important players: Blas Lopez, Fernando Masias and Irven Avila, and that could help raise the morale a bit. Reports are giving a probable 3-5-2 formation for them, with plenty of offensive players capable of scoring (Avila, Sotil, Mostto), but also with plenty of spaces for some Leon attacks. And if we also count the missing of their regular goalkeeper and best defender, those attacks could leave a serious mark.
Leon should also give their best to win this match, as if they fail, they could already lose the first place in the Liguilla B, provided Cesar Vallejo wins their match. Another 3-5-2 formation is expected from them also, and with the way Leon is playing (offensive, rarely see them protecting an early and slender lead), plus the quality of their offensive player (Left winger Rodas in particular has been awesome, with 5 goals and 3 assists, but also with a very good game… and let’s add striker Perea, with 17 goals on his tally, or Calheira, with another 9 goals score), it will be a surprise if we don’t see a few goals from them. For the statistics, 7 form the last 10 matches of Huanuco have ended with at least 3 goals scored, while Leon recorded overs in 5 of their last 10, but the rest were also quite close. Also, the two matches between them (one victory for each, at home) have seen a great 12 goals scored (making it 6 per match), so I think the chances for another high-scoring game are very nice. I still believe a bit in my initial DNB, but over looks better, and I hope I won’t choose the wrong bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Result: 0-0, LOST