Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
Nice match is expected in Uruguay tonight, as two in-form teams will be facing each other. Both Defensor and Liverpool have 4 points in the first two rounds, so today one of them will be able to continue their good run. When the odds appeared, I thought they were set fairly, but recent odds movements (without serious reasons) give us some nice value on the home win. Defensor have been impressive so far, recording a 2-2 draw with Nacional, and trashing Wanderers 4-0 as visitors. Quite impressive results, as they have definitely marked their title challenge once again. Meanwhile, Liverpool also started the season in good form, and that is quite surprising for me. They have lost a lot of players, and had to start rebuilding their team, so their aspirations were far-fetched. However, they have managed to string a couple of positive results, both in Copa Sudamericana and the local championship. Still, I don't think this will last, as the new players should still be in their accommodation period, and as soon as they will meet a more serious team, they should have some difficulties. And that day should be today, as Defensor Sporting is not an easy team to play against, as they rarely lose. And since they have a more solid and experienced team, I expect them to do well today. I'm going with high stakes, because as I said, I see a lot of value in the home win after the increase in odds. GL!
Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.28, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
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Sep 15, 2012
Sep 9, 2012
Nacional - Cerro Largo
Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
The line is sky-high, so I'll only take it with minimal stake, and I do so because I just can't miss this bet after seeing the teams' line-ups. Nacional is usually a very offensive and overish team, but today they will have even a more offensive formation, with 3 forwards (Luna, Medina, Bueno) plus Alvaro Recoba behind them. Speed is not his best skill, but his passing can break Cerro's defense, same as his free-kicks, and we should have enough speed on the flanks. Their defense is as poor as usual, so for sure they can (and most likely will) concede, especially since experienced striker Horacio Peralta will make his debut for Cerro Largo. Now, when it comes to the visitors, they are nothing special, losing the first round 2-3 at home against Montevideo Wanderers. So receiving 3 goals from Nacional is more than do-able, especially since their defensive line also crumbles when they are put under pressure. And just for statistics, if we look at their previous mutual matches, in 5 of their last 6 games Nacional and Cerro Largo finished with a minimum of 4 goals, as they have an average of 4 goals scored per match in those 6 games between them. This should really happen again, but as I said, only small stakes due to the high line. GL!
over 3.25 goals @ 2.00, 2/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
The line is sky-high, so I'll only take it with minimal stake, and I do so because I just can't miss this bet after seeing the teams' line-ups. Nacional is usually a very offensive and overish team, but today they will have even a more offensive formation, with 3 forwards (Luna, Medina, Bueno) plus Alvaro Recoba behind them. Speed is not his best skill, but his passing can break Cerro's defense, same as his free-kicks, and we should have enough speed on the flanks. Their defense is as poor as usual, so for sure they can (and most likely will) concede, especially since experienced striker Horacio Peralta will make his debut for Cerro Largo. Now, when it comes to the visitors, they are nothing special, losing the first round 2-3 at home against Montevideo Wanderers. So receiving 3 goals from Nacional is more than do-able, especially since their defensive line also crumbles when they are put under pressure. And just for statistics, if we look at their previous mutual matches, in 5 of their last 6 games Nacional and Cerro Largo finished with a minimum of 4 goals, as they have an average of 4 goals scored per match in those 6 games between them. This should really happen again, but as I said, only small stakes due to the high line. GL!
over 3.25 goals @ 2.00, 2/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
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