Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Can't say there is a lot of value in this bet, but I think that the chances of it being a losing bet are minimal. Nacional recovered well from their difficult first 2 matches (losing at home against Olimpia and drawing at Guarani), and since then they haven't lost a single game, winning 4 and drawing away at Rubio Nu. The quality of their opponents hasn't been too high, so all the victories came as a logical thing, and so it should happen today. Sportivo Luqueno is in a deep crisis, ever since 2010, when things started to go awfully wrong for them, and now they find themselves deep in the relegation battle. And with things not likely to lighten up, their only chance right now is that their relegation-rivals (Independiente, Caballero, Sol and 3 de Febrero) perform worse than them. Luqueno proved to be a tough nut to crack at their stadium, surprisingly being undefeated, but they have only won once in 4 matches, and they haven't played against any of the power-teams (only played against Rubio, 3 Febrero, Independiente and Sol). Meanwhile, as visitors they have lost all 4 games, and worth mentioning are the 0-5 trashing at Olimpia and the 2-3 loss against Tacuary. And if a defensive minded team like Tacuary can put 3 in your goal, you really need to start worrying. Class, form, organization, etc... everything points towards a Nacional win (also the head-2-head, where Nacional won the last 4 games played in Asuncion, scoring 9, and not conceding a single goal). And the worst case scenario that I can think of would be a narrow win, but I'm confident Nacional will win with something around a 3-0 score. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.72, 5/10Result: 0-0, LOST