Dec 4, 2010

Sport Boys - Leon Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Last round also in Peru, and 90% of the teams are already thinking about the holidays or the next season. This, of course, isn't the case for Leon de Huanuco, who will play the final of the championship, but their heads surely aren't in this match. With just 4 days before the first leg of the championship final, Leon will be resting/saving all their regular players, in order to avoid injuries, fatigue and/or bookings. That is why only 13 players have made the trip to Callao, and most of them are youngsters. All the main players, and a few reserves, are still in Huanuco, preparing for the final. The youngsters will be relishing the opportunity to play a full match, and will probably try their best to impress the coach for next season, but their lack of experience, and the fact that they are playing together for the first time this season, should be some big disadvantages for them. Sport Boys are safe from relegation, so no worries for them, but it still looks as if they will be using their best players for this game, already expressing their wish to finish the season with a victory at home against one of the finalists. Odds aren't so good for a lowly team against a great Leon, but if the line-ups will be as expected, Sport Boys are almost sure to win. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Dec 3, 2010

Total Chalaco - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Not the greatest of bets here, but I think it's worth a shot here. The thing that makes it a bit tricky is the fact that both teams are playing for nothing. Total Chalaco are already packing their bags for Segunda Division, while Inti Gas can breathe easily, as they live to see another season in Primera, while they are not fighting for anything in this last round.So, motivation should be weak for both teams, but Chalaco's endless problems are making me lean towards the visitors. The players and staff of Chalaco are still being abandoned by the people in charge, as they have been for the past couple of months. They haven't been paid in quite a while, and for some matches, they even had to take taxis to reach the stadium, as the owner didn't even provide them with a bus. For today, a bus will be provided by the Federation. Sadly for them, the players are sick and tired of this treatement, and all of them are wishing it to be over. That's why several players have decided not to show up for this match, and the coach will have at his disposal only a few regulars... the rest of the team will have to be filled with youngsters. Now, Inti Gas isn't a great team, especially when playing away, but morale is sure to be higher, and they have a fair chance here. GL!

Inti Gas DNB @ 2.11, 3/10
Result: 2-2, VOID

Nov 28, 2010

Alianza Atletico - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Time to draw the line for Alianza Atletico. Just two games remaining, and with only 2 points separating them from Cienciano, a win today is a must, no matter what their rivals do. All the hopes are based on a win today, as if Cienciano loses or draws, Alianza is saved. Otherwise, the final showdown  will take place next week, in Cusco, and I'm sure everyone at Alianza would like to avoid having to play a decisive game in the heights of Cusco. Everybody says this is a final, the most important match of the season, and all the players are 100% focused, wanting to win today, trying to prolonge their recent good form (have only lost 2 matches from the last 10). Sport Huancayo is without any worries, so I have my doubts regarding their committement and focus. They allowed Cienciano to pull level last week, so their concentration is already fading. So far, they have lost every time they visited Sullana, and I don't think that will change now, when the players are thinking more about the holiday than about their remaining matches. GL!

Alianza Atletico (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Cobresal - Deportes La Serena

Chile Primera Division

Same story with this match. Cobresal is one of the hopefuls of reaching a spot for the Copa Libertadores liguilla, while La Serena needs points today, otherwise they could be entangled in the fight to avoid relegation in the last rounds, and no one at the club wants to have such an unncesary pressure on them. So they'll go for the win, of course, but they have quite a few absences, and their defense is likely to be a Swiss Cheese. 5 are the defensive absences that they will have, and will practically have to change their entire defensive line (Tapia, Rojas, Pardo, Guidi and Delgado), as well as an important figure from the midfield line, Patricio Rubina. Therefore, they will most probably field a new and shaky defense, either with non-regulars, either with repositioned players. Either way, they are very likely to suffer from every Cobresal attack. Cobresal will also be missing a couple of players, due to suspensions, and they will also have to suffer in the defensive area, as they will be missing defender Eduardo Farias and midfielder Cabion. So, with so many absences in the defenses of both teams, and with both of them needing the points, I am again going for goals. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 0-2, LOST

Santiago Morning - Huachipato

Chile Primera Division

These two teams aren't traditional goal scoring teams, but now, with only 2 rounds left in the league, they both need to win, as only 3 points today will keep their hopes alive. The guests, Huachipato, are hopeful of a late snatch of a place that allows them to play the Liguilla that sends a team to Copa Libertadores, and a win today will practically seal their spot in the Liguilla. Because of that, and also due to a couple of suspensions (midfielders Jose Perez and Garcia), the coach will change his formation to a 4-3-3, an offensive plan, trying to press early, and clinch the important victory. Santiago Morning, however, will also try to make their game. For them, 3 points today are even more vital than for Huachipato, as they will be 100% safe from relegating directly, and will also have a very good chance to avoid the play-offs. Hopeful that this will be their last home game (meaning they won't be playing any play-offs), Morning's players think only of the win, and will also field an offensive team, with 2 strikers, backed-up by 3 offensive midfielders. With both teams in need of points, and both planning to attack from the start, I'll give them credit, and go for a goals bet here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-3, WON