Oct 8, 2011

Penarol - Fenix

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Well, it's a pretty rare moment to see Penarol playing at home and being priced around 1.50, so let's try to make a profit out of this. For the moment, there appears to be no squad problems for Penarol, as the few doubtful players seem to have recovered well. And with no players called-up for the national team, Penarol is expected to repeat the same line-up that played against River Plate, 2 rounds ago, in a match they won with 4-0 (River was the league leader at the time). And besides that match, Penarol has found some great form recently, being undefeated so far in the championship, with 3 consecutive wins. Fenix has been going through some ups and downs recently, as after winning 1-0 away at Defensor Sporting they failed to win any of their following 3 matches, losing at home to Cerro, 0-3, before drawing with Racing and Wanderers. Penarol's form and overall superior quality should see them through this match, as I expect another easy win for the Carboneros. GL!

Penarol (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID

Oct 6, 2011

Aurora - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana

This bet comes a little late, as the odds dropped pretty heavily, and most of the value is gone, but I still think it's goon enough to try it, for some lower stakes, of course. Vasco's first priority is to win the Brazilian championship, and all their focus will go in that direction. Everything else, including this Copa Sudamericana, is a secondary objective. That is why they have sent a minimal squad to Bolivia (just 15 players), with the players being mostly reserves and a couple of youngsters. The altitude should also affect them, as Brazilians and Argentinians are the teams that are most affected, since they never play at heights in the local league. Aurora seems to be in very good form, as they have 4 consecutive wins at home, 3 in the league, plus a 5-2 whooping of Nacional Asuncion (another team that has difficulties at high altitude) in the previous round of Sudamericana. Aurora also had the weekend off, so the players' fitness should be ok, and with the help provided by the altitude in Cochabamba, they shouldn't lose this game against the fringe players of Vasco. GL!

Aurora DNB @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Oct 2, 2011

Rentistas - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Penarol comes after a week full of happiness, as they celebrated 120 years of existence, but all of that could be useless unless they deliver a solid performance tonight, to end a grandiose week in their existence. Recently, they have shown that regardless of who the coach is, the team is working just as well. They are undefeated in this championship, and the transition from Aguirre to Gregorio Perez only cost the team a draw, followed by 2 consecutive wins, against former front runners of the league: Danubio and River. Rentistas have only won 2 matches so far, and for tonight, even though they are considered to be the home team, the match will be played on Estadio Centenario (Penarol's home ground), so that advantage fades away. They usually keep the scoreline low, but they played mostly against mid-low teams, the only real tests being the matches against Defensor and Danubio, both lost 0-1. However, Penarol should be better than that, and I expect several goals, to end their festive week in high fashion. GL!

Penarol (-1.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10
Result: 0-3, WON

Deportivo Quito - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Big derby tonight in Quito, and I'm going to again follow the trend of the low scoring Clasicos. As I've said many times before, it is a custom in Ecuador that 95% of the derbies end with very few goals, and usually with draws. And the clash between the two powerhouses from Quito is no different. In their last 10 direct meeting, only one of them had more than two goals (6 of them actually had only one or none), and 5 of those 10 games ended in draws. So it's pretty clear that neither team wants to lose, and that is slightly more important than trying to win. Deportivo Quito is the undefeated leader of this second stage, so a draw would suit them perfectly, as they are 4 points ahead of Barcelona, with 2 games in hand, both of them with LDU (and 2 draws in those matches would see them 6 points clear, which should be ok for them). From the 10 games played so far, Deportivo has only conceded in one of them, the 2-2 draw with Imbabura, otherwise they have kept a clean sheet in every other match. LDU had a lot of ups and downs, and are pretty far away from the top position, but they are still in the race for Copa Sudamericana, and that could save the year for them. Deportivo is well rested, as they had 2 weeks off, while LDU played a mid-week match in Sudamericana, but both teams are expected to use their best squad tonight. I'm going with history here, and putting my money on the under, but a draw could also be tried. GL!

under 2.25 goals @ 1.72, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-WON

Emelec - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

The Ecuadorian league is entering it's last quarter, so now it's really time to make or break.And Emelec isn't going very well at the moment, so they need to find some form before season's final. The last couple of weeks have give Carrasco one slap in the face after another. In addition to being knocked-out from the Copa Sudamericana by Olimpia Asuncion (match in which the fans asked the coach to leave), they followed that disapointment with a huge, shamefull result, as Independiente pulverized them with an unbelivable 5-0. But since the format of this league is mirror-like, Emelec now has the chance to take it's vengeance on Independiente, after only one week. All the players look focused, and everybody at the club is vowing to avenge last week's humiliation. And this is also probably Carrasco's last chance to remain at the helm of the club, as after the fans, the directors also seem to be losing confidence in him. 3 defenders will be left out of the squad, by technical decision: Quinonez, Quiroz and Edison Mendez. Meanwhile, Independiente will have to do without central defender Ayovi (suspended), while the other central defender, Mustafa, is doubtful. Before last week, Independiente has never won with Emelec, and I seriously doubt that will happen again soon. Emelec will be out looking for blood, and since their home form is very good (3-2-0, goal difference of 11-1), I'm quite confident they'll wash the shame with a solid performance. GL!

Emelec (-0.75 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON