Aug 3, 2013

Sport Huancayo - UTC

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sport Huancayo have a very short squad, so for as long as they'll be playing both in the local league and in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to sacrifice some games. And from what it looks like, the sacrificed ones will be in the local league. Following their home defeat against Emelec, earlier this week in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to dig deep in the return game to overturn the results. And even if that task will be almost impossible, they are giving it their all, and are saving pretty much all their main players during today's game. No official line-up has been released so far, but it is quite certain that they will be using 8 youngsters in the starting team. So, a completely different team, without too much experience or class. Overall, UTC look like a weaker team than a full-force Huancayo, even though they are right behind them in the table, just one point behind, but under these circumstance, they should be winning this match without any problems. They are also used to play at high altitude, so Huancayo will be without any advantages. GL!

UTC (+0.5 AH) @ 1.68, 4/10
Result: 0-2, WON

Aug 1, 2013

Deportivo Pasto - FBC Melgar

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!

Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON

El Tanque Sisley - Colo Colo

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!

Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON

Jul 31, 2013

Sport Huancayo - Emelec

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Nacional Asuncion - The Strongest

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Jul 30, 2013

Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin  is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST