Nov 29, 2012

Deportivo Quito - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

I would have expected some closer odds for this match, and no way I could have seen Deportivo as the favorites. Therefore, we should have some slight value here. Just one round left in the Ecuadorian Serie A (plus this match, which has been postponed), and everything looks pretty clear. Emelec needs a miracle to play the final: they need to win both games left, while Barcelona has to lose at home against an already-relegated Olmedo, so their chances are close to zero. However, all the players in the team have said that they will find up until the end, and they'll try to take any chances they have. Deportivo Quito had a horrendous campaign, winning just 5 matches and scoring 12 goals in 20 performances. They are safe from relegation now, so they don't really have any other objectives left, only to play and complete the schedule. At first, the coach said he will be using some youngsters and less-used players, but then he changed his mind as said he'll use the best players available. Lots of uncertainties there, but if the second story is true, he'll be using the same team that was trashed 1-4 by Manta last weekend. Also, they had some awful recent performances against big guns Barcelona (lost 0-2 at home) and rivals LDU Quito (lost 0-3 away), so with Emelec being the better team and still fighting for something, I don't see anything close to a home win here. GL!

Emelec DNB @ 1.90, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Nov 26, 2012

Wanderers - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

If there's one match where we can expect to see some goals in Uruguay, this must be it. Both teams have been performing admirably, with good attacking lines and offensive style of play. And of course, if that's the case, then the defenses are the ones that have to suffer. The match will be played on Estadio Centenario, so Penarol will be at home (like it's usually the case when they play), so they can just play their usual game, which went so well within the last few weeks (since October, they had just one match which ended with less than 3 goals, and it was against Nacional, ending in a 0-0 draw... all the other games have been won clearly by Penarol). Wanderers have been alternating good performances with poor ones, but they like to play against teams that don't lock up in their own halves. Morale should also be high, since they are coming from 2 consecutive victories, in which they scored 6 goals. One more thing worth mentioning is that the last 5 official games between them and Penarol have ended with a minimum of 3 goals, so this should be a minimum for today as well. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.74, 3/10
Result: 1-2, VOID

Inti Gas - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This one should be a no-brainer. Inti Gas are in a must win situation, otherwise their entire work throughout  the season would have been in vain. They currently sit on 7th place, the last one the brings with it a qualification to the Copa Sudamericana, and there is no place for missteps, as a list of 5 teams are rooting for that place. A draw won't do here, so Inti Gas has no other options than to take the three points. And normally, that shouldn't be a problem against a team in Cobresol's position. They have been relegated for quite some time, most of their players have left the team, and they are just waiting miserably for the season to end. Cobresol lost 18 of their 21 games played as visitors, conceding 52 goals, and if we add the altitude to this series of bad results, we should see a clear winner. The handicap is high, and the odds have dropped, but it's still worth taking for some medium stakes. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.5 AH) @ 1.72, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Well, I missed a tempo ever since the lines/odds have opened for this last round in Peru, but let's still try to take advantage of what we have. Sporting Cristal will play the final, and have no chance of losing the first place in the aggregate table. And as a result, they will be playing the first leg of the final next week, in Cusco. Since it will be a very tough match, as a result of the high altitude, they have already traveled to Cusco, where they will remain for an entire week, trying to get used to the air. Therefore, only the goalkeeper and two players from the first squad have remained in Lima, to face Cienciano, and they will be the only experienced players among a group of youngsters. Cienciano has no objectives left, so they will only play this match because they have to. However, they should use their main team, and if we look at the players quality-wise, they should have the advantage. The opening line was great, but the odds dropped a lot ever since. So , I'm taking this bet instead (with a fresh line), and I will definitely take them even as low as +0.5. GL!

Cienciano (+0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 3-3, WON

Nov 25, 2012

El Tanque Sisley - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

All right, we have almost the same situation as last week with Liverpool, but this time it gets even better. Opening odds were 1.80 for a Tanque win, in Sbobet, and now it just rocketed to 2.26... again, with no apparent good reason (just like Wanderers did last week, and just as a reminder, they won 3-2 at Liverpool, despite playing with 2 men less since 1-1). El Tanque are one hell of a solid team this season, one of the most solid teams when playing at home, and one of the 3 teams that are still undefeated on their own stadium. And if we look at the standings, they seem the ones with the most chances of challenging Penarol for the title. They might even be leaders today, if they win and Penarol loses, but that would be a long shot... so even if both of them win, El Tanque will move to second place, and will keep their chances, remaining 2 points behind the leaders. Same story with Liverpool: small squad, not too many classy players, and bad form overall, so don't expect miracles. Once again, bet worth taking because of the huge odds movements, and if you can take -0.25, just increase the stakes. GL!

El Tanque (-0.5 AH) @ 2.29, 3/10
Result: 2-2, LOST