Nov 2, 2013

Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

There was no time for a preview.

over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

Oct 28, 2013

Sol de America - Cerro Porteno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST