Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
The handicap is a bit bigger than what I had hoped for (I was seeing -0.75 in my fantasies), so while there's almost value in this bet, it's also one with slim to none chances of failing, as anything other than a home win would be a huge surprise. The class diference between these teams is obvious even if we only look at the standings. Nacional is fighting for the top spots, sitting on 3rd currently, 5 points behind the leaders, while Rubio, despite their high pre-season expectations, are only on 9th place, with 10 points from 9 matches. The hosts are really playing well this season, especially at home, where they have 5 consecutive victories in the league. The full squad has been called up for today's game, so there are very big chances to see their best 11 on the pitch, despite their Libertadores duties from next week. Meanwhile, Rubio are in a slump of form, managing to take only 4 points from their last 7 games, and even those points aren't impressive, drawing away at Luqueno and beating Independiente at home. As visitors, they haven't won a match in 4 tries, having a total of 11 goals conceded in those 4 games. They are simply poor this season, and can't really see how they will be able to take something from today's game. At least a one-goal win for Nacional is highly expected, so this bet looks very safe. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 3/10Result: 0-2, LOST