Aug 29, 2010

Peru Primera Division - Last round of Descentralizado

I will try to write a few short opinions on most of the matches for this last round, at least for those matches that count. Here we go:

Alianza Lima - Chalaco
Alianza's only shot in this match is to go from the start to attack, score a few, and than hope that Leon doesn't win. Of course, they could take the second place even if both win, but it's highly unrealistic to think Alianza will win 5-0, while Leon only 1-0. So, chances are slim for Alianza to avoid San Martin's group, as even if they tank this match, there is a possibility that Cesar Vallejo won't win, so they will only lose contact with the leaders even more. All the players and the staff are saying they want to make a surprise, and to trash Chalaco, and I'm sure they will be really fired up for this game, especially since Chalaco doesn't have a very stable defense, and their record away from home isn't very encouraging. Also, coach Valencia left the team 3 days ago, leaving them in a rather poor and insecure state. The probable line-up will include the best they have, including some changes to give more speed to attack, and to force a few early goals. Moreover, there are some rumors that the referees will give Leon a tough time, so I'm sure there would be even more motivation for Alianza (not very trustworthy info, but you never know in Peru). I don't see Chalaco resisting too much, and I see an easy win for Alianza, with a few goals advantage. GL!
Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, Sbobet, 5/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Leon Huanuco - Sport Huancayo
Last week, this match seemed like the banker of the century, and it still does, as I just can't imagine Leon not winning it here. But with the recent rumors that the referee could be a pain for the Huanuquenos, and with Sport Hunacayo's financial motivation from Alianza (although the president stated he won't accept any money from Alianza, and considered the move as unethical), I'm starting to have some worries about the handicap, as even a win with a one goal difference, 99% guarantees them the second spot. So, I'm going for the over again. Huancayo is used to playing at high altitude, so they shouldn't suffer in Huanuco like other teams do. And if they really believe what they say, they should still be hoping/fighting for an Internationl competition, and any point is welcome. An early goal from them would certainly help things with the over, but if they don't, I'm counting on Leon to do the job. They aren't fighting for the title just because they are at high altitude; they also have a great team, with some very good players, and knowing their style of play, they won't just sit back and defend an eventual 1-0 lead. GL!
over 2.5 @ 1.87, Sbobet, 4/10
Result: 5-2, WON

Universidad San Martin - FBC Melgar
Little to say here. USM is with no doubt the best team in the league, already assured their ticket for Copa Libertadores, will probably start the Liguilla with an advantage of 9 points ahead of the second placed team, and could also receive 1 or 2 more points from their reserve team, which means they are 99% certain of playing the final of the league. Also, they have Copa Sudamericana duties, so they can take on the league matches with ease, and still make it comfortably to the final. Melgar is poor on the road, in a very bad form, so they shouldn't expect too much from this match. Normally, this should be an easy victory for USM, and I'm sure it will be, but for the handicap... I don't really know. They could just play for fun, make a nice show, etc, and no one will get upset if they just win 1-0 or 2-1. Should be a good combo material, but for the handicap will wait for something live, maybe the lines will go lower. GL!

Alianza Atletico - Universidad Cesar Vallejo
I'm skipping this one, as UCV is in a very tough position. They obviously want the 4th position, but are in the worst possible place to do it. Although they are 4th at the moment, things could change in just a few minutes, and here we have some different scenarios: if they win and Alianza loses (and it's not out of the question, if Leon and UCV both lead 3-0 after 20 minutes, Alianza could tank it), they move to 3rd place, which is bad. If they lose, and Universitario wins, they'll be on 5th place, which is even worse. This scenarios should be exploited in live-betting, depending on the score, and if the live-markets are available.

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal
I have a lot of respect for this team, as with such problems, I doubt many teams or players could have coped better with it. Their problems are well known: no money, debts, several players leaving, etc etc. But even so, when Ibarra took the helm at the team, they have been performing very well. I can remind about the 2 home wins against CNI and Inti Gas, and despite losing their last 2 away games, they did a very good job at Alianza Lima, showing that the players that stayed at the club are playing with their hearts. Now, things are starting to look better and better, as things settled down a bit, and it looks like the players will be payed soon. One more reason to give their best in this match, where altitude should benefit them (despite the problems, they are still 8-4-1 at home), and a win today could take them out of the hot zone for the Liguilla. Sporting Cristal lost pretty much all hope to challenge for the title, and can only hope for a Libertadores ticket, but even that could be very tough with their irregular recent form. They haven't won in Cuzco since 2003, and I don't see them too well today either. GL!
Cienciano @ 2.20, Sbobet, 4/10
Result: 3-3, LOST