Oct 6, 2012

Nacional - Independiente

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nice line we have here, for a match in which I can't see past the home win. Nacional are contenders for the top spots, and have some nice chances of getting into the title fight, even though it's going to be hard, as they are currently 8 points behind leaders Guarani. But they are in good form now, coming off 3 undefeated matches, including a 1-1 draw at Cerro Porteno last week. But they are not the main reason for this bet, which is more like a bet against Independiente. They are pretty much the poorest team in the league, with just one win in the 10 games played so far in this tournament. And that win came at home, against Cerro PF, a newly promoted team (and even they are doing much better in the standings than Independiente). When playing against the better teams of the league, they just fail miserably, as they lost 0-1 at home with Cerro Porteno, while as visitors they've been beaten 1-3 by Guarani and 0-3 at Libertad. Earlier this year, they have also lost both games played against Nacional, 2-5 at home and 0-5 away. So we should see pretty much a repeat of that performance tonight, and the line/odds are very good. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Oct 3, 2012

Palmeiras - Millonarios

Copa Sudamericana 2012

For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!

Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST

Sep 30, 2012

River Plate - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Odds are going up a bit here, and that can only make me happy, as I don't see any real reason for that. Neither team is doing a great campaign so far, but if I were to choose the first team that will collapse, this will definitely be Liverpool. They have a very short squad, so their coach rarely gets the chance to rest one or two players. So they took on all their matches so far in the league or in Sudamericana with pretty much the same team, and the same case will be today. And this could be detrimental to them, as fatigue and tiredness will definitely catch up. They played in Argentina during midweek, so they couldn't get too many days of rest. And since their performances haven't been great anyway, I don't expect a higher level of football today. River Plate is a very strong team at home, and we can see that in their recent results: in 2012, they have only lost one game at home... the very first one, back in February, exactly against Liverpool. However, things have changed lately, and Liverpool is nothing like last season's team. Both teams are short on quality, but with a wider squad and an easier schedule, River should nick it here. GL!

River DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Danubio - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Here we have two teams with a lot of offensive potential, but also with rather poor defensive lines, so we can only expect goals here. One more reason for that is that Danubio's new coach is the well known Juan Ramon Carrasco, who always employs offensive tactics. He did say he will try to take a more conservative approach with Danubio, but following their 0-0 draw last week, he is already changing the formation, from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-1-2, which should bring more balls to the area. So they should definitely improve on their 5 goals scored so far in 4 games, and of course, I don't expect too many improvements to the defensive line, which managed to concede 10 goals. Penarol didn't enjoy the best of starts either, as they have just started winning. However, 3 more points today will throw them back in the title race, so victory is a must. Two goals per match is the average scored by them, so if they keep up this trend, we might be in for a nice match, especially since last year both games finished with several goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST