Jul 21, 2013

Deportivo Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!

Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST